BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told CNBC that a data center moratorium would put the U.S. in a recession. Moody's puts this year's capex at $700 billion, and Fink separately warned that the national debt has reached $40 trillion.
Perspective Coverage
8 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 49%
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence68
U.S. Has a Lower Debt Ratio Than Japan, But Analysts Warn It Faces Greater Rate Risk
America's national debt topped $40 trillion in August, more than double China's, while its 126% debt ratio trails Japan's 207%. Japan holds about 90% of its debt at home, and the US has to find buyers for about $7 billion of new borrowing a day.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
Wall Street read a yield target into Bessent's Treasury buyback move, economists say
Treasury's repurchase operations rose from $2 billion each to $4 billion as 30-year yields approached a near-20-year high. Stan Druckenmiller called it price management; a Wharton economist who served under Bessent calls it plumbing.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives68
- Confidence48
A Wharton economist prices Trump's $5,000 dividend at $1.35 trillion of new borrowing
Kent Smetters of the Penn Wharton Budget Model puts the checks at about $1.35 trillion, or $1.15 trillion if a $400,000 income cap he supplied himself applies, against a federal deficit already running near $2 trillion a year.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives70
- Confidence58
Yields hit 4.93 per cent two days after Bessent invited traders to bet against him
The currency leg of the Treasury Secretary's intervention worked and the yen is at a near seven-month high, while the 10-year note ran to its highest level since 2023 with Brent above $100 and the debt stock at $40 trillion.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives72
- Confidence55
Tax Cuts, Spending and Crisis Response Explain 98% of America's Debt Slide From 32% to 100% of GDP
Debt held by the public went from 32% of GDP to 100% in a quarter century, and the budget hawks' own decomposition says removing any one of tax cuts, new spending or crisis response would have left it near where it started.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives68
- Confidence55
Rising rates and congressional inaction moved Bernstein off his calm debt position
Jared Bernstein, who chaired Biden's Council of Economic Advisers, calls the $40 trillion figure a distraction, and names the two inputs that changed his mind: the price of carrying the debt, and Congress.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
The $40 trillion problem has a $32.8 trillion denominator
Debt at 122% of GDP implies an economy of about $32.8 trillion. Wharton's Kent Smetters says the growth route is "pretty clearly" not feasible, which leaves the 30-year bond setting the limit.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+42
- Incentives72
- Confidence38
Treasury says the debt is $40 trillion. The Conference Board priced it per household.
A new scenario model puts household numbers on the fiscal path: $53,000 in extra lifetime mortgage payments for a 2031 buyer, and a $705 monthly hole for retirees by 2033.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives62
- Confidence46