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Atlantic Council

Washington-based think tank researching international affairs, security, and geopolitics through specialized centers on China, energy, and strategy.

Known aliases

  • Atlantic Council of the United States
  • atlanticcouncil.org
  • Global China Hub
  • Global Energy Center
  • Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security

Current stories

securityOne report1 publisher

Russia's RuNet isolation could embolden its cyber operators abroad, a July 2021 Atlantic Council brief argued

In a July 2021 issue brief, the Atlantic Council argued that Russia's push to isolate RuNet could make Kremlin cyber operations abroad more assertive. It said success was uncertain, so its five takeaways for US and European defenders were hypotheses to test.

Publishers:atlanticcouncil.org

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap
Not scored
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence45
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Bank of England's Breeden backs AI for growth while warning of rogue agents

Bank of England deputy governor Sarah Breeden called leveraging AI the "best pathway" to economic growth in an Atlantic Council interview. She also said an increasingly autonomous financial system could act in ways regulators do not expect.

Publishers:cityam.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence60
investConfirmed5 publishers

Trump says he ordered staff to work up a ban on 1.6 million barrels a day of diesel exports

Diesel at $6.53 a gallon is a political problem for Trump. The remedy under discussion would hold a record 1.6 million barrels a day at home, in a market where the world price still sets the US price.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 6%
Operator
Operator 34%
Investor
Investor 60%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+30
Incentives70
Confidence62
securityConfirmed7 publishers

Star Blizzard now sends its Ukraine lures from hacked WordPress and cPanel sites

Microsoft says Star Blizzard has sent fake event invitations to more than 100 organizations since January, many from hacked WordPress and cPanel sites. The group, long known for stealing email passwords, now uses the messages to install a Windows backdoor.

Perspective Coverage

8 publishers
Builder
Builder 28%
Operator
Operator 62%
Investor
Investor 10%

Reality

Evidence66
Adoption35
Hype gap+18
Incentives35
Confidence70
investOne report1 publisher

Primary dealers have added $100 billion of Treasuries against Bowman's $5 trillion of eSLR headroom

Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman says this year's eSLR changes freed as much as $5 trillion of headroom at primary-dealer holding companies. Dealers have used about $100 billion of it on Treasuries so far, and she concedes the reform's real test comes in a selloff.

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption35
Hype gap+35
Incentives65
Confidence45
buildOne report1 publisher

Star Blizzard now delivers the CosmicPulse backdoor through fake event invitations

Microsoft says Russia's FSB-linked Star Blizzard sent fake event invitations to more than 100 organizations since January 2026. The lures pose as Chatham House and Atlantic Council events and carry a new Python backdoor, CosmicPulse, aimed at people working on Ukraine.

Publishers:dev.to

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence62
investConfirmed5 publishers

Greenland's basing deal trades at nearly thirteen times the odds of a US acquisition

Prediction markets have lifted the odds on a September 23 signing from 64% to 75% while still pricing a US acquisition of Greenland at 5.9%, and the agreement itself leaves sovereignty with Denmark pending a parliamentary vote.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 9%
Operator
Operator 57%
Investor
Investor 34%

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+30
Incentives60
Confidence58
investConfirmed4 publishers

Saudi Arabia's central bank exits mBridge after a single proof of concept

SAMA says it finished the proof of concept it joined to run and stopped there. The platform it left has cleared more than $55bn, a 2,500-fold rise that works back to roughly $22m of traffic in 2022.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 28%
Operator
Operator 39%
Investor
Investor 33%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption35
Hype gap+30
Incentives50
Confidence65
investOne report1 publisher

China books a record $1.2 trillion surplus. Its exports to America are falling

Xi meets Trump on Wednesday holding a surplus built outside the American market. Two Pew readings that bear on enforcement, Canadian trust and German belief that Washington weighs other countries' interests, have each fallen by more than half.

Publishers:cnbc.com

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption58
Hype gap+12
Incentives48
Confidence64
investOne report1 publisher

Bessent floats a US-China channel for AI incidents ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting

Scott Bessent discussed a U.S.-China channel for AI incidents up to a national security level. Analysts at CSIS and the Council on Foreign Relations told CNBC the likely output is shared definitions and a hotline, and that a deal to slow development is extremely unlikely.

Publishers:cnbc.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption15
Hype gap+10
Incentives60
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Samsung C&T takes the construction scope in a BWRX-300 fleet aimed at 40 European units

The four-way agreement signed in New York splits design, engineering, licensing and construction of a 300-megawatt reactor. The pipeline behind it runs to 40 units, against one under construction in Canada.

Publishers:en.sedaily.com

Reality

Evidence48
Adoption27
Hype gap+30
Incentives70
Confidence56
investConfirmed3 publishers

SAMA leaves mBridge eleven months after upgrading to full participant

The Saudi central bank spent about two years on China's CBDC settlement rail without committing to it. The four central banks still on mBridge now take a platform with roughly $55.5bn of volume toward commercial rollout, and the BIS is gone.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 19%
Operator
Operator 38%
Investor
Investor 43%

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption58
Hype gap+20
Incentives55
Confidence66
investConfirmed3 publishers

Riyadh missile attack adds half a point to the priced odds of a US invasion of Iran

Trump left Camp David early on Saturday after the first missile reached Riyadh since hostilities resumed. The contract on a US invasion of Iran by the end of 2026 went from 16 percent to 16.5 percent YES, a relative move of about 3 percent.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 10%
Operator
Operator 43%
Investor
Investor 47%

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+30
Incentives70
Confidence55
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Iraq moved 2.1 million tons of fuel overland through Syria in four months

With Hormuz shut, the truck run to Baniyas is carrying real volume, which makes a Syrian state one year past Assad an input into routing decisions rather than background risk. The rail meant to replace the trucks is years out.

Reality

Evidence52
Adoption61
Hype gap+14
Incentives57
Confidence47