Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan wrote in his Oct. 14 memo that nearly every macro path ends with Bitcoin higher. A BIS paper from two days earlier models a fourth path, in which CryptoSlate's worked example has output up 10% and the consumer market down 1%.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 24%
- Investor
- Investor 69%
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Without IBIT, U.S. bitcoin ETFs lost $11.73 million on the day they reported a $5.06 million inflow
U.S. bitcoin ETFs took in $5.06 million on Thursday while ether ETFs lost $60.22 million, according to Bitcoin News. BlackRock's IBIT alone added $16.79 million, and four sessions of flipping flows leave bitcoin funds about $146 million down.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Ethereum fell 5.5% against Bitcoin's 3.1% in 24 hours as high-beta altcoins were hit harder
Ethereum fell 5.5% and XRP 5.1% in 24 hours against Bitcoin's 3.1% after September CPI rose 3.7%, Decrypt reported. Two analysts it quotes split on the cause: one points to the dollar and rate-hike odds, the other to profit-taking after a strong run.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives35
- Confidence60
NEAR's $5.3 million in buybacks trails new issuance, Bitwise's research head concedes
Bitwise research head Ryan Rasmussen says NEAR's $5.3 million in buybacks since February do not yet offset new token issuance. He still backs NEAR and Hyperliquid on revenue, in an interview with Crypto Briefing.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption50
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
XRP ETF investors have put in $230 million more than their funds now hold
US spot XRP ETFs took in a net $11.31 million last week, their 12th straight weekly inflow, according to Sosovalue data. Cumulative inflows of about $1.8 billion now exceed the $1.57 billion the funds hold.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Clarity Act's Senate stall hands US crypto rulemaking to the SEC and CFTC
With the Clarity Act stalled in the Senate, the SEC and CFTC are writing US crypto rules, but only one of their three measures since September 17 is in force. Executives expect faster deals from that route while lawyers warn its rules stay open to political and legal reversal.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Bitwise will halt trading in its Dogecoin ETF on October 14
Bitwise confirmed its Dogecoin ETF will stop trading on October 14, with distributions to shareholders to follow, crypto.news reported. For those holders the payout date now matters more than the week's $57.2 million net exchange outflow, about 0.4% of DOGE's market value.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
Some of Sui's 15.5% deposit growth may simply reflect SUI's own 54% price rally
SUI rose about 54% in four weeks to early October as dollar deposits in Sui's DeFi apps grew 15.5%, Crypto Briefing reported. Part of that locked value is held in SUI itself, so the deposit figure partly moves with the token's price and is a weak check on whether new money arrived.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence35
US bitcoin and ether ETFs shed about $965 million in two sessions as ether funds logged an eighth straight day of redemptions. Most of Thursday's selling sat in Fidelity's FBTC and BlackRock's ETHA, consistent with a few large holders trimming positions.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
NEAR Protocol rose about 6% to $5.50 and passed Stellar's $6.97 billion market value to rank 20th on CoinGecko, crypto.news reported. NEAR's own seven-day gain was 0.6%, so most of the swap in rank came from XLM's 12.8% weekly slide.
Reality
- Evidence65
- Adoption50
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence65
XRP whales move 1.38 billion tokens off Binance in the largest 30-day outflow in seven months
XRP whales withdrew about 1.38 billion tokens from Binance over 30 days, the most in seven months, according to a CryptoQuant analysis. That could thin the supply ready for sale on the exchange, though withdrawals alone do not show whether the coins are being held or sold elsewhere.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
Grayscale's XRP ETF opens in-kind swaps to Virtu and Macquarie
Grayscale's XRP ETF now lets Virtu and Macquarie swap XRP directly for fund shares, according to an Oct. 5 SEC filing reported by Bitcoin.com News. Grayscale itself warns that limited dealer participation can widen spreads, so for now the fund's tracking of XRP rests on those two firms.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives45
- Confidence55
Bitwise's Matt Hougan says the Senate's 49-50 cloture failure will not end the crypto rally, and points to a summer in which prices rose as the odds of passage halved. Only Congress can give the CFTC spot authority.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 13%
- Investor
- Investor 80%
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
U.S. spot XRP ETFs stretched their inflow streak to 12 weeks on Oct. 6 yet held $97 million less than investors had put in, according to Sosovalue data. One overnight drop in XRP's price outweighed the day's $3.14 million net more than 20 times.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Binance, Bybit and OKX handled $56.18 billion of XRP futures trading in September, near a six-month high, Cryptoquant data show. Volume counts every trade and the same margin can back many of them, so new money would have to show up in open interest and spot buying.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
US spot bitcoin ETFs lost a net $89.9 million on Monday as $159.8 million left ARKB and Fidelity's FBTC while BlackRock's IBIT took in $69.85 million. One session that followed about $293 million of inflows is thin evidence that buyers are settling on a single fund.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence66
Bitwise's staked NEAR ETF gathers $58 million in three days, 61% of it on the first
Bitwise's NRR, the first U.S. spot NEAR ETF, gathered about $58 million in its first three sessions, according to a Bankless tally of daily flows. Inflows shrank each day, so the coming weeks will test whether Bitwise's AI pitch for NEAR finds buyers after the launch.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives85
- Confidence55
BlackRock's IBIT took in $450 million last week while all US spot bitcoin ETFs together netted $241 million, about 90% less than the week before. That keeps a three-week inflow streak alive on one fund's buyers heading into October.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence66
Ondo Finance launched three tokens that each hold a rebalanced basket of its tokenized stocks and ETFs, using strategies BlackRock designed. Using the tokens as DeFi collateral is so far only a possibility Ondo has named.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 28%
- Operator
- Operator 27%
- Investor
- Investor 45%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption15
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence58
NEAR Intents got back all $3.8 million drained through a bug between its Omni deposit-and-withdrawal layer and its contract, after encrypted talks. Whether that layer is safe now rests on the patch, since every user who lets the protocol choose a bridge depends on it.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 31%
- Operator
- Operator 45%
- Investor
- Investor 24%
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence72