America's trade deficit widened 13.7% to $105.6 billion in August, its largest since March 2025. Imports this year still run above 2025's, so the narrower year-to-date gap has come from faster export growth while US buying abroad keeps rising.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 66%
Reality
- Evidence82
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives35
- Confidence78
Commerce Department figures put US second-quarter growth at 2.2%, up from a 1.5% estimate, as consumer spending rose at a 3.8% pace. Chip imports cut that total, so an AI pullback would hit hardest through the stock gains funding wealthy households' spending.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 10%
- Operator
- Operator 27%
- Investor
- Investor 63%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence72
Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $84,376 after August core PCE came in at 3.0%, below the 3.3% economists expected. Lower odds of an October Fed hike did little for a market whose September rally ran on ETF inflows that have since faded.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 15%
- Investor
- Investor 80%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives40
- Confidence65
Bureau of Economic Analysis revisions cut July's core-services PCE inflation by 34 basis points to 3.35%, partly via new methods for three categories. August came in at the same 3.35% on the new method, so the revision lowered the level of inflation without slowing it.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 3%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 72%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence64
Prices made up more than half of the 6.1% rise in US consumer spending over the year to August
US consumer spending rose 6.1% in the year to August before inflation and 2.6% after it, Bureau of Economic Analysis data show. Prices rose faster in August alone than over the year, so the report argues for a slower path of rate cuts.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Heavy debt supply pushes long Treasury yields to their highest levels this century
Long-dated Treasury yields have hit 21st-century highs on federal deficits, hyperscaler bond sales and oil near $100, even as August inflation came in soft. Some market participants cited by Seoul Economic Daily allow for a 6% 30-year yield, on debt supply the Fed's October meeting does not touch.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence45
Core services and a sudden run-up in computer prices are holding the Fed's preferred gauge 1.35 points above target. Futures put the September choice at hold or hike.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 10%
- Operator
- Operator 32%
- Investor
- Investor 58%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence74
Record diesel crack spreads on top of expensive crude have taken the US pump price to an all-time high. Senator Chuck Grassley wants President Trump to ban the exports, which are also at a record.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 22%
- Investor
- Investor 71%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption76
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives52
- Confidence64
Adding unpaid housework to GDP lowers 55 years of US growth by 0.2 points a year
The GAO values unpaid household work at up to $6 trillion a year, a fifth of GDP. The BEA series that counts it grew 6.1% a year from 1965 through 2020, against 6.3% for headline GDP, and that gap compounds to about 11%.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives38
- Confidence58
Computer equipment outspent US housing by $4 billion in the second quarter
Real spending on information processing equipment reached $752 billion against $748 billion of residential investment. The gap is half a percent, and the six-company capex forecast that supports the concentration argument is a separate series.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+33
- Incentives38
- Confidence58
Information-processing investment overtakes US housing by $4 billion in the second quarter
The San Francisco Fed's Adam Shapiro flagged the crossover in Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The margin is about half a percent, and S&P Global expects the six biggest spenders to run negative operating cash flow through 2027.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption68
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
A 0.2-point revision to core PCE would still leave it 1.1 points above the Fed's target
The BEA publishes its annual national accounts revision on September 30, fourteen days after the FOMC votes, and Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both model it taking 0.1 to 0.2 points off core inflation back to 2021.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+31
- Incentives56
- Confidence37
Waller's 3.05% inflation trend takes 13 points out of the market's hike odds
Fed funds futures went from 63% positioned for higher rates to roughly even in a single morning, and the number doing most of the work may be a Commerce Department measurement change worth 20 basis points.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives62
- Confidence57
Repricing already inside the debt adds $160 billion to Washington's interest bill
The effective rate on federal debt over the past year works out to 3.05%. The average rate actually carried in July was 3.45%, and closing that gap costs about $160 billion a year with no help from the Fed.
Reality
- Evidence63
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives44
- Confidence58
Real spending grew 2.1%. Healthcare services took about a third of the gain.
Nominal spending ran 5.9% against 3.7% inflation. Healthcare services, now 18.2% of the wallet, are growing at twice the pace of the whole consumer economy.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives32
- Confidence61
Card delinquencies hit a three-year low, and the consumer-cracking chart was a filing artifact
Fed, Equifax and Fitch data for Q2 show delinquency falling across prime and subprime. The 90-plus rate that argued the opposite was stale charge-offs, according to the New York Fed.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption71
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence64