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Congressional Budget Office

Nonpartisan U.S. federal agency that provides Congress with budget, economic, and fiscal analysis, including cost estimates on legislation.

Known aliases

  • CBO

Current stories

investOne report1 publisher

Korea has 69.1 trillion won of 10-year bonds sold near 1.6% to roll over in 2029 and 2030

Korea's Ministry of Finance and Economy lists 69.1 trillion won of 10-year treasury bonds, sold at about 1.6%, that mature in 2029 and 2030. Officials call the immediate cost manageable, but next year's 96.3 trillion won of net new issuance adds debt that costs more than the old paper did.

Publishers:en.sedaily.com

Reality

Evidence66
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap−5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence62
investConfirmed2 publishers

Economists polled by the WSJ see the 10-year at 5.1% by year-end, over the CBO's 4.3% decade ceiling

Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect the 10-year Treasury yield to ease only to 5.1% by year-end and 4.8% a year later, Semafor reported. Growth and inflation forecasts barely moved, so the case for high yields rests on the supply of capital.

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence62
investOne report1 publisher

Holding U.S. debt flat would take 5%-6% real growth, CBO's Swagel estimates

CBO Director Phillip Swagel put the real growth needed to stop U.S. debt rising against GDP at 5%-6%, more than double the current pace. He told a Minneapolis Fed conference that what remains is tax and spending changes, which he called inherently political choices.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence60
investOne report1 publisher

Medicaid's Oct. 1 eligibility cut drops an estimated hundreds of thousands of legal immigrants

Medicaid stopped covering an estimated hundreds of thousands of lawfully present immigrants on Oct. 1, refugees and trafficking victims among them. It is a small early part of the 7.5 million coverage losses the CBO projects from Trump's 2025 law, and advocates expect the unpaid bills to reach emergency rooms.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption72
Hype gap+5
Incentives50
Confidence62
scienceOne report1 publisher

Wavy walls and roofs cut peak corner wind pressure by up to 60% on wind-tunnel house models

Engineers at Florida A&M and Florida State cut peak wind pressure at model buildings' corners by up to 60% in a wind tunnel by making walls and roofs wavy. That makes building shape a candidate wind measure for hurricane coasts, on evidence from 3D-printed scale models.

Publishers:popsci.com

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+30
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence40
investConfirmed3 publishers

Interest drives more than half the rise in a U.S. deficit nearing $2 trillion

Congressional Budget Office figures put the U.S. deficit for fiscal 2026 at $1.993 trillion, about 12% above the prior year and the largest since 2021. Market watchers expect the gap to top 6% of GDP, up from 5.8%, even after more than six years of economic expansion.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 32%
Investor
Investor 63%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+8
Incentives55
Confidence70
investConfirmed2 publishers

Anthropic plans to spend $518 billion from a 2025 revenue base under $5.2 billion

Anthropic plans to spend $518 billion, more than 100 times its 2025 revenue, according to the IPO prospectus seen by Reuters. Investors in the listing are underwriting a payoff that JP Morgan says has yet to show up as broad productivity gains in the US.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 25%
Operator
Operator 27%
Investor
Investor 48%

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+35
Incentives60
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

US interest costs climb to about $1.08 trillion as the 10-year yield tops 5%

US net interest payments rose $111 billion this year to roughly $1.08 trillion, on figures a former Senate budget staffer published in Fortune. With debt adding $1 trillion every five months, the bill compounds whether the 5.04% yield reflects oil and inflation or fiscal risk.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+30
Incentives55
Confidence40
investOne report1 publisher

Real yields above 3% make up most of the 30-year Treasury's 5.62% close

Bond investors are demanding about 3.3 points of real return in the 30-year Treasury's 5.62% close, against a long-run inflation forecast near 2.3%. Their exposure is the real cost of funding the government, and inflation hedges do little to cover it.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence40
scienceOne report1 publisher

Nine states and D.C. expect more than 281,000 legal immigrants to lose Medicaid in October

Nine states and D.C. expect over 281,000 lawfully present immigrants, refugees and asylees among them, to lose Medicaid in October. CBO's estimate of 100,000 more uninsured by 2034 is a net figure for years out, so the gap depends on how many find other insurance.

Publishers:statnews.com

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives45
Confidence58
investOne report1 publisher

Six states bar first-year Medicaid frailty self-attestation despite federal rules allowing it

Six Republican-led states will require provider proof of medical frailty when Medicaid work rules start in January, a year ahead of the federal schedule. The first cost lands on new applicants who cannot afford the doctor visit that proof requires.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption15
Hype gap+5
Incentives60
Confidence58
investConfirmed6 publishers

A Republican donor calls Trump's $5,000 midterm promise a 'bread and circus bribe'

Trump promised $5,000 to each American adult if his party keeps its congressional majorities, and Fortune reports that such a proposal could cost more than $1 trillion. No financing was attached to it.

Perspective Coverage

6 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 48%
Investor
Investor 47%

Reality

Evidence80
Adoption5
Hype gap+60
Incentives85
Confidence70
investConfirmed3 publishers

Johnson answers Trump's $5,000 dividend with a promise to find consensus

Trump promised American adults $5,000 each if Republicans hold Congress, a payout put near $1.3 trillion, and the two Republican leaders who would have to legislate it have both declined to promise it.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 6%
Operator
Operator 47%
Investor
Investor 47%

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+65
Incentives72
Confidence60
investOne report1 publisher

Federal debt service now costs eight times what corporate borrowers pay as a share of GDP

The federal government is on track to spend about $970 billion servicing its debt in fiscal 2025. The whole gap between that burden and corporate America's is attributed to when each side refinanced.

Reality

Evidence24
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+36
Incentives58
Confidence32
investOne report1 publisher

The 10-year at 5% runs 60 basis points above the CBO's 2036 forecast

The CBO baseline that federal interest projections rest on now sits 90 basis points below the market, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget priced $2.7 trillion of annual interest off a smaller gap than that.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+18
Incentives58
Confidence55
scienceConfirmed4 publishers

US Air Force secretary confirms weapons already fielded in orbit

Troy Meink said the US has fielded on-orbit space control weapons, the first American acknowledgement of the kind, though he gave no detail on the weapons or their targets, leaving the consequence in the UN argument over a ban.

Perspective Coverage

4 publishers
Builder
Builder 27%
Operator
Operator 49%
Investor
Investor 24%

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption35
Hype gap+22
Incentives72
Confidence62
investOne report1 publisher

Two-thirds of big employers plan to push Mercer's 8.2% health cost rise onto paychecks

Mercer's survey of 1,800 employers puts health costs per worker up 8.2% in 2027, the steepest rise since 2003, and the $3.48 an hour employers already spend on health insurance comes out of the same budget as pay.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence64
Adoption52
Hype gap+20
Incentives72
Confidence66
scienceOne report1 publisher

CMS lets states exempt the sickest Medicaid recipients using data they already hold

The new tier system sorts diagnoses by how likely they are to prevent work, so an ALS case clears automatically while a diabetes case with no recent admissions goes to individual review. States have about 16 weeks.

Publishers:statnews.com

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption25
Hype gap0
Incentives55
Confidence58

Earlier coverage

  1. Galbraith reads the global bond rout as a forecast of Fed hikes

    Invest · September 10, 2026 · One report1 publisher