Cox Automotive's third-quarter count of almost 263,000 US EV sales is about 40% below the tax-credit rush of a year earlier. Europe registered 277,006 in July alone, so a US plan should start from 263,000 and treat 2025 as a one-off.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Average new-car payment hits a record $787 though the 7% APR has not moved in a year
Edmunds put the average new-car payment at a record $787 in the third quarter, up $31 from a year earlier. The 7% APR did not move, so loan size and term account for the increase, and Edmunds' Joseph Yoon says buyers tend to have six-figure incomes.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
Tesla plans to start Roadster 2 deliveries next year, six years after the car was supposed to reach driveways. Deposit holders from 2017 get a hypercar from a company its CEO now tells investors to treat as a robotics and autonomy business.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+55
- Incentives55
- Confidence62
Cox Automotive now expects its Manheim used-vehicle price index to end 2026 up about 0.2%, down from the 2% gain it projected in July. Losses came in large trucks and SUVs while EVs and small cars gained value, a split that points to fuel costs.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives30
- Confidence60
Ford's September surge narrowly edged Hyundai and Kia for the quarter, by just 1,195 vehicles
Ford outsold Hyundai and Kia by about 17,000 US vehicles in September, enough to hold third place for the quarter after trailing them in July and August. The fuel-economy rollback credited with giving Detroit room on trucks starts only in late November, so Ford won the quarter under the old targets.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
GM's single hybrid leaves it short of a fuel-price surge that lifted hybrids to 19% of US sales
GM, which sells one hybrid model, gave no date for more as hybrids rose to 19% of US vehicle sales in August from 16% before the war, according to JD Power. Record hybrid quarters went to Japanese and Korean rivals, while GM's last stated target for new hybrids is 2027.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption65
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives55
- Confidence55
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, about 24,500 more than analysts expected, almost all of them Model 3s and Model Ys. With US buyers pulling back, that volume now rests on Europe and China while Tesla's pitch moves to robotaxis and trucks.
Perspective Coverage
9 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 12%
- Operator
- Operator 39%
- Investor
- Investor 49%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption65
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence74
buildConfirmed4 publishers Google made Live Avatar, a lip-synced video face for Gemini 3.8 Live agents, generally available in Gemini Enterprise on September 24. Custom likenesses need an allowlist and Google has not disclosed an avatar rate, so teams can pilot preset avatars but cannot yet budget for them.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 44%
- Operator
- Operator 40%
- Investor
- Investor 16%
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence60
Rivian delivered 19,248 vehicles in the third quarter, up 45%, while overall EV sales fell nearly 24% after the federal tax credit ended. Nearly all of the gain is the R2's first full quarter, so the evidence that buyers will pay for a Rivian without a subsidy covers one launch period.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 11%
- Operator
- Operator 33%
- Investor
- Investor 56%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence65
Ford outsold Hyundai Motor Group by 1,195 light-duty U.S. vehicles in the third quarter and kept the No. 3 spot. Ford links its lower volume to retiring the Escape and Corsair, and that drop is about 58% of the 62,000 vehicles its lead shrank over the year.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 37%
- Investor
- Investor 58%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption72
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives60
- Confidence70
Ford wrote down $19.5bn of electric plans before gasoline reached $4.47 a gallon
Copper has climbed as much as 20% this year and an EV uses 2.9 times more of it than a gas car, so the buyer interest that $4.47 gasoline created is landing on an industry that already cut its capacity.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
This year's US EV cancellations cluster on Korean-built imports
US EV deliveries have fallen for three straight quarters since the $7,500 credit lapsed in September 2025. Most of the nameplates dropped this year were assembled outside the US, and each quarterly decline is smaller than the last.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption74
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives52
- Confidence56
The oil change is the trade: dealer profit is migrating from the lot to the service bay
US dealership service and parts sales hit $164.6 billion last year, up 48% in five years, while average profit per public store sits well below its 2022 peak.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives62
- Confidence55