JAXA's MMX is set to launch on an H3 rocket on 19 October and return at least ten grams of Phobos material to Earth in 2031, according to ESA. The sample is meant to help decide whether Mars's moons are captured asteroids or giant-impact debris.
Perspective Coverage
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- Builder 45%
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- Operator 33%
- Investor
- Investor 22%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives55
- Confidence72
Japan's MMX probe is due to launch Oct. 19 to fetch Phobos soil that tests two origin theories
Japan's MMX probe is due to launch on an H3 rocket on Oct. 19 to bring back more than 10 grams of Phobos soil. A sample rich in Martian material would favor a giant impact, and one matching known meteorites would favor capture, phys.org reports.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
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- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
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- Confidence55
Stickney Crater's age splits Phobos' two origin stories by 1.6 billion years
Work presented at the European Geosciences Union assembly in Vienna models whether compressed rock sits beneath Phobos' largest crater, part of an effort to read the little moon's interior before Japan's MMX mission goes there to sample it.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives35
- Confidence45
One oblique hit, two Deimos mysteries, and a moon weaker than anyone budgeted for
The first paper built on ESA Hera's Deimos flyby argues a single roughly 320-metre impactor did both jobs, and that the moon is porous and fragile. JAXA's MMX inherits that finding.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives62
- Confidence55
One 320-metre impact explains Deimos's dust blanket, and predicts what a sampler would grab
About a hundred SPH runs at the University of Bern converge on a single non-destructive strike as the source of Deimos's south-polar depression and its global regolith. The surface is ejecta, and it is weak.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption34
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives58
- Confidence55
Japan's Phobos mission has a 10-gram target and a 2031 return; China may land samples first
JAXA showed the MMX spacecraft to reporters ahead of a launch it will only place in "the coming months". China's Tianwen-3 is aiming to bring Mars material back around 2031, possibly sooner.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption26
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives63
- Confidence48