Heather Maurer resigned as head of the National Council on Problem Gambling in September after backlash over its $2 million deal with Kalshi. So far the council has paid for the deal, losing four state partners by Fortune's count, over a sum that is tiny next to Kalshi's valuation.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives65
- Confidence60
The NFL asked the Supreme Court to back New Jersey against Kalshi, saying NFL games drew $1.8 billion of the $3.3 billion traded on opening Sunday. A ruling for the states would put the contracts that made up most of that day's trading under state gambling law.
Perspective Coverage
11 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 44%
- Investor
- Investor 47%
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption72
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives74
- Confidence70
Fifty-two percent of Gen Z investors moved money meant for investing into sports betting in the past year, a Betterment survey of 1,000 investors found. Bank of America's payment data puts what every generation recovers from sportsbooks each month below 75 cents on the dollar, so the diverted cash is a running cost.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 22%
- Investor
- Investor 71%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption50
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
Sports contracts run above 80% of a market that went from $2bn in August 2025 to $38.5bn. Whether the justices take New Jersey's petition this fall will decide which compliance bill the industry pays.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence58
Kalshi and Polymarket run DraftKings' old loophole playbook against the sportsbooks
Fullstory says 35% of bettors it polled use sportsbooks less because of prediction markets, CFTC-regulated venues that pay no state betting tax. DraftKings and FanDuel grew on a similar carve-out until states rewrote gambling law after 2015, and Kalshi's Illinois suit now contests that route.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives50
- Confidence45
Robinhood's record 13.6 billion event contracts earned it about a penny each
Event contracts brought in $156m last quarter on 13.6 billion tickets, which is the arithmetic behind Robinhood buying equity in a contract supplier as well as listing its markets. OG.com's contracts go live on September 8.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives72
- Confidence48
Sportsbooks are not competing with the movie budget. They are competing with the brokerage account
Two academic papers put figures on where wager money comes from: net household investment down nearly 14% after legalisation, and credit stress showing up in the lending data.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption82
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives66
- Confidence54