NFL backs New Jersey's Supreme Court bid to regulate Kalshi's sports contracts as gambling

In its brief, the NFL said $1.8 billion of the $3.3 billion traded on prediction markets during the season's opening Sunday involved NFL games.

Federal appeals courts are split on whether federal commodities law stops states regulating sports event contracts as gambling: the Third Circuit backed Kalshi and the Sixth and Ninth Circuits sided against it. The Supreme Court has not yet agreed to hear the case.

The Ninth Circuit ruled in August that states can enforce gambling laws against sports prediction market platforms, creating a conflict with the Third Circuit that Quartz described as 'the kind of circuit split that draws Supreme Court scrutiny.'

The NFL wants a minimum betting age of 21; Kalshi currently allows users aged 18 and up.

Most state sports-betting frameworks require a 21-year minimum age.

The NHL partnered with both Kalshi and Polymarket, while UFC, MLS and MLB signed agreements with Polymarket.

The NFL said it is not opposed to prediction markets in principle but believes state regulators are better positioned than the CFTC to oversee them, given the agency's resource constraints.

"What constitutional power allows Congress to override states' traditional police powers to regulate intrastate gambling?"

If the justices agree with the NFL, states could apply their own gambling rules to platforms like Kalshi.

The platforms' model depends on operating under a single federal framework; if the Supreme Court sides with New Jersey and its allies, that advantage 'could shrink considerably,' and operators could end up navigating dozens of state regimes, much like traditional sportsbooks do today.

The NFL flagged contract categories it views as open to exploitation, among them wagers on field goals, fumbles, injuries and officiating calls, and has pushed platforms to eliminate them.

In July the NFL argued that the CFTC's proposed rules fell short of protections already required of traditional sportsbooks.

"We don't feel like we have to be the first in this. We feel like we're going to be right, and the best thing to do is be patient," Goodell told CNBC.

The NFL renewed sportsbook deals with DraftKings and FanDuel and added Fanatics in August; all three also operate prediction market products.

The NFL has kept prediction platforms off its airwaves and has declined to enter into any commercial partnerships with them.

The appeals courts divide two to one against Kalshi.

Forty jurisdictions back New Jersey's petition.

Front Office Sports reported in September that the NBA had circulated partnership proposals to several operators, including Kalshi, Polymarket and Fanatics; the NBA's season opens October 20.

NFL games accounted for about 55% of prediction market trading on opening Sunday.

All non-NFL contracts across all platforms drew about $1.5 billion on opening Sunday.

According to Front Office Sports, the NFL held discussions with Kalshi, Polymarket and the CFTC for months, but no partnership materialized before the season began.

In a CNBC interview published September 11, Commissioner Roger Goodell confirmed the league was still speaking with operators about changes that could make them potential partners.