U.S. federal agency that regulates derivatives markets, including futures, swaps, and options, and oversees trading venues and clearinghouses.
CFTC issued an interim final rule on Oct. 9 excluding state- and tribal-licensed casino sportsbooks from the swap definition. A proposal published the same day would treat exchange-traded sports and politics event contracts as swaps, so federal treatment would follow the venue.
Reality
A New Taipei court ordered Coinbase and Kalshi blocked on October 15, a little over six weeks before Taiwan's November 28 local elections. Kalshi already faces actions in Washington, Nevada and New York, so Taiwan is the fourth government to move against it.
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Judge Alvin Hellerstein denied a joint Gemini and CFTC motion to vacate a January 2025 consent order, keeping its $5 million penalty and injunction. The penalty is already paid, so the live stake was the permanent injunction barring false statements to the CFTC.
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Jump Trading and DRW are putting traders and capital into GPU compute contracts, starting with private 3-to-5-year bilateral deals. The exchange-listed layer that would open the market to more hedgers still waits on a CFTC decision.
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SEC approved exchange-listed binary options that settle in cash on reported metrics at Coinbase, MARA and Robinhood. Chairman Paul Atkins said the order leaves CFTC oversight of differently structured products untouched, so event-style contracts now have a securities track and a CFTC track.
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Hyperliquid CEO Jeff Yan wants US regulators to oversee the firms deploying markets on its chain, each of which must stake 500,000 HYPE. Under his model the chain itself sits outside exchange-level rules, and the licence and the liability belong to each operator.
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Patrick Witt has left the White House crypto council after his Defense Department detail expired, and no replacement has been named. The CLARITY Act he worked on now waits for a lame duck with 22 Senate session days, none set aside for crypto.
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The SEC unveiled a five-year exemption for stock tokens two days after the Senate's failed CLARITY cloture vote. TD Cowen cautions that agency rules like it are the easiest to rescind, so firms building on it carry that risk.
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Polymarket is weighing an IPO and a native token as routes to capital, Bloomberg reported, with valuation talks reportedly above $20 billion. Its spending so far points toward equity, and neither route has a timetable.
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Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said on October 14 that public trade data makes insider trading easy to catch, citing a case that drew about 100 complaints. The CFTC order against Santos was for manipulation, and New Jersey has asked the Supreme Court to review state authority over the contracts.
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Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour says state policing would drive US prediction markets offshore, though two of three appeals courts have sided with states. Sports slid from 95% of Kalshi's revenue to about two-thirds, a share change that cannot show how much volume left.
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Kalshi set daily volume records of $3.91 billion and $3.96 billion on Oct. 10 and 11, with parlay combos about 70% of each day. Markets outside combos traded $1.11 billion and $1.21 billion but supplied only 13% and 22% of the week-over-week gain.
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Blockchain.com has applied to the CFTC for futures exchange and broker licences, one of 12 applicants this year against six approvals. Established venues such as Crypto.com and Gemini would gain another US rival.
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TD Cowen's Jaret Seiberg says the CFTC's leveraged retail crypto rules may not be final until early 2028, colliding with the election cycle. A new administration could revise or drop them, and a rushed schedule invites a procedural court challenge.
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CFTC proposed two crypto leverage rules under existing law on October 5, 20 days after the CLARITY Act stalled 49-50 in the Senate. Until Congress acts, what counts as compliant for leveraged retail crypto will be set by CFTC rulemaking.
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NEXTPredict paid $12,000 on Kalshi for about $3 million of cover if over half of JFK's flights are canceled on October 21. Susquehanna took the other side in what the parties call the first conference hedged on a prediction market.
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Kalshi traders price December 2026 headline CPI at a median 3.6%, with more than 90% odds of a print above 3.4%. That puts the market's central case 1.6 points over the Fed's 2% target.
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CFTC's October 5 advance notice seeks comment on a federally registered crypto venue for retail trades made with leverage, margin or financing. Chair Michael Selig says registration is voluntary and a mandate over every spot trade needs Congress.
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Former CFTC acting chair Caroline Pham says the Commodity Exchange Act already gives the agency extensive crypto authority after its October 5 proposal. The CLARITY Act failed to advance in September, so regulators are left with existing powers while lawmakers weigh more legislation.
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Thirty-nine states, D.C., 145 tribal nations, the NFL and Gary Gensler urged the Supreme Court to decide whether sports prediction contracts are swaps. Two of the three appeals courts to rule have called those contracts state-regulated gambling, so platforms on federal licenses still face two possible regulators.
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