Kalshi's deals with CBS, CNN and CNBC put election odds on air despite 60% public opposition
Kalshi has deals to put its prices on CBS, CNN and CNBC while 60% of US adults oppose election betting, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. The trader-concentration data that exists is for Polymarket, where the top 1% of wallets make 68% of congressional-market volume, an August analysis found.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives65
- Confidence60
Trust in science has dropped below its pre-pandemic level, Wellcome's global survey finds
Wellcome's survey of more than 140,000 adults found that 72% trusted science at least somewhat in 2025, compared with 80% in 2020 and 77% in 2018. Products that sell on 'science says' are now drawing on less public credit than they had before the pandemic.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives40
- Confidence62
Reuters/Ipsos found only 30% of 2024 Trump voters very motivated to vote in November's midterms, against 48% of Harris voters. The gap points to weaker Republican turnout, but the one market price reported with the poll, for Florida's governor race, still has Republicans as favorites.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives30
- Confidence55
Fifty-six percent of US voters, including 43% of Republicans, back limits on building data centers, a Reuters/Ipsos poll found. That puts local siting fights at the front of the political risk to AI spending before the November 3 midterms.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives40
- Confidence68
Robert Half counts 72% of managers planning to pay AI-skilled recruits more in 2027
Robert Half says 72% of managers plan to pay more for recruits with AI skills in 2027. Its raise table and LinkedIn's posting data put that premium anywhere from about two points of salary to $97,000 a year, so whichever source a budget uses sets the line item.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives50
- Confidence42
Goldman Sachs calls its US data-center outlook through 2027 largely unchanged, yet its figures cut 2027 capacity additions to 26 GW from 36 GW. The bank says local opposition has had limited effect on growth so far, a judgement the November 3 midterms will test.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 10%
- Operator
- Operator 33%
- Investor
- Investor 57%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Partners Banka takes 1.5 points of a 2% markup on each bitcoin trade in its app while Anycoin, a MiCA-licensed exchange, executes and holds the coins. Customers skip wallet keys and exchange logins, but the coins cannot leave the app.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
Eagle Hill poll links missed tech returns to underestimated changes in daily work
Eagle Hill Consulting found 51% of 200 senior US leaders say recent technology investments fell short of their intended outcomes. The reason they gave most often was underestimating how the new tools would change day-to-day work.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives55
- Confidence45
US firms sanction poor performance by software at nearly 17 times the European rate
An OECD survey of 6,047 employers found this software in most workplaces on both continents. The countries split over what firms are allowed to do with it, and most of these tools are not AI at all.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption82
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives30
- Confidence62
Belief in AI displacement is outrunning healthy employment data, Noahpinion argues
Noahpinion sets the prime-age employment rate near all-time highs against Ipsos and Pew findings that the public expects AI to compete with workers, which leaves headcount plans resting on a premise the aggregate data has not tested.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence48
Texas froze 474 gigawatts of interconnection queue, and the audit is now the schedule risk
Abbott's halt on new grid-connection approvals has stalled roughly 1,800 data center projects. The gap between 474 GW requested and 100 GW planned suggests what the audit will find.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption72
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives66
- Confidence60
A Beijing dumpling shop shipped a skill file for its queue. That is the new SEO question.
Jinguyuan's owner made his menu and wait times readable by other people's AI agents. He says it draws more press than customers, which is the interesting part.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives58
- Confidence47
The SEC's crypto safe harbour turns a whitepaper roadmap into a legal exit condition
Regulation Crypto Assets pairs two offering exemptions with a way out of the investment-contract test. The White House lunch the next day was the political weather, not the rule.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives84
- Confidence46
Iran talks lapse, and the live escalation is a sanctions letter addressed to Chinese refiners
The 60-day cease-fire window closed on the 16th. Washington is weighing secondary sanctions on Chinese buyers of Iranian crude while US pump prices run 29% above last year, three months from the midterms.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption46
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives62
- Confidence40
The 81% Problem: AI's Star CEOs Are Polling Badly With The People They Need To Hire
A CNBC and Generation Lab survey of 1,088 Americans aged 18 to 34 puts distrust of Palantir's Alex Karp at 81% and Anthropic's Dario Amodei at 76%. The best-liked AI chief executive still loses 65-35.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives34
- Confidence42
An ECB survey of 8,205 firms found crypto acceptance flat since 2024 while mobile payments nearly doubled. The money in payments is in settlement, not the checkout button.
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption6
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives55
- Confidence74