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National Weather Service

U.S. federal agency under NOAA that issues weather forecasts, warnings, and climate data for public safety nationwide.

Known aliases

  • NWS
  • US National Weather Service

Current stories

productOne report1 publisher

Santa Ana winds push Camp Pendleton's Henderson fire to 2,080 acres with no containment

Henderson fire at Camp Pendleton has burned 2,080 acres and is 0% contained, CAL Fire says, as Santa Ana winds peak. Operators in Southern California should plan for more road and power disruption while the fire stays uncontained.

Publishers:gizmodo.com

Reality

Evidence68
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+8
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence65
productOne report1 publisher

NOAA's winter outlook puts the odds on a warm north and a wet south during a record El Niño

NOAA's December-to-February outlook tilts the odds toward a warmer northern tier and a wetter south, West Coast and Eastern Seaboard during a record El Niño. The maps are odds, so planners get a lean to start from and no totals to budget against.

Publishers:gizmodo.com

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence60
scienceOne report1 publisher

Nighttime-lights imagery shows substantial dimming west of Isaias's eye after Destin landfall

NASA's Black Marble HD imagery shows nighttime lights falling west of Isaias's eye after the storm came ashore near Destin with 105 mph winds. Lights are a proxy for electric service, so the images suggest where power was disrupted.

Publishers:nasa.gov

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+8
Incentives40
Confidence60
scienceOne report1 publisher

Wind shear eased off the Gulf Coast long enough for Isaias to form in a quiet Atlantic season

Hurricane Isaias killed at least four people after landfall on the U.S. Gulf Coast as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds, Scientific American reported. Two meteorologists quoted there say a quiet season narrows where storms can form without softening the one that does.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+8
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence50
buildOne report1 publisher

A Kalshi series titled SATX settles on Louisville's CLISDF station

A dev.to developer reports that Kalshi's API titles its Louisville temperature series 'HIGHEST Temperature SATX' while the event and rules name Louisville. A join on titles files Louisville contracts under San Antonio; the station code in the rules is what pays out.

Publishers:dev.to

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence60
scienceConfirmed3 publishers

Tropical Storm Rachel's swell floods Southern California's coast ahead of a rare landfall

Tropical Storm Rachel is due ashore near the California-Mexico border early Sunday under only the second tropical storm watch ever issued in California. Its swell is already damaging homes and flooding streets along the coast, days before the center arrives.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 19%
Operator
Operator 58%
Investor
Investor 23%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence68
scienceConfirmed3 publishers

Isaias is forecast to become 2026's first Atlantic hurricane before a Gulf Coast landfall

Tropical Storm Isaias should be a hurricane by Wednesday night and a Category 2 storm by Friday morning, the US National Hurricane Center estimates. Wind shear rising sharply in the last 24 hours before landfall may cap its strength at the coast.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 27%
Operator
Operator 62%
Investor
Investor 11%

Reality

Evidence78
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence72
scienceOne report1 publisher

Penn State team adapts image-generator diffusion to forecast flash floods by the hour

Penn State researchers trained a diffusion model, the method behind AI image generators, on more than 500 US river basins to forecast hourly flash-flood risk. It takes in new gauge readings without retraining, so a warning service could keep it current.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+30
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence40
scienceOne report1 publisher

Unusually strong nor'easter threatens more than 40 million people in the US Northeast

More than 40 million people in the US Northeast are bracing for an unusually strong nor'easter, with gusts over 60 mph and up to 13 cm of rain forecast. Airlines and event organisers have already changed plans. Warnings about damaged power lines mean operators should plan for outages this weekend.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap−5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence64
scienceOne report1 publisher

Lake Ontario's rename reaches all 122 forecast offices through the AWIPS code they share

The Aug. 27 executive order that makes the lake Lake America on federal maps also requires edits to GIS map layers, forecasting code and every product issued since it was signed, at offices already short of staff.

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+8
Incentives45
Confidence55
productOne report1 publisher

TACLS puts satellite data and machine learning behind the forecaster who issues flash flood warnings

A team inside the National Weather Service built software that reads satellites with machine learning to flag flood-prone ground sooner, and the warning it feeds still ends with a forecaster deciding to press a button.

Publishers:theverge.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption15
Hype gap+40
Incentives60
Confidence50
scienceOne report1 publisher

Five degrees off New York's heat-alert trigger tracked a drop of more than half in heat-stroke admissions

New York moved its emergency trigger from a heat index of 105 F to 100 F in 2008, bundled with the rest of a wider plan, and heat-stroke hospitalizations fell after it. The evidence is before-and-after.

Publishers:livescience.com

Reality

Evidence46
Adoption64
Hype gap+18
Incentives41
Confidence53
scienceOne report1 publisher

A mid-September heat dome put 41 million Americans inside extreme heat alert areas

NASA Earth Observatory's map of September 15 pairs satellite data with the GEOS model to show air approaching 40 degrees Celsius across the south-central states. The 41 million figure beside it counts residents of National Weather Service alert areas.

Publishers:nasa.gov

Reality

Evidence74
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap−5
Incentives40
Confidence68
scienceOne report1 publisher

NOAA separates California's marine heat wave from an El Niño still months offshore

The warm water off Southern and Central California came from a marine heat wave that predates the El Niño NOAA declared in June, which leaves coastal sea level and upwelling, rather than warm-water fish, as the indicators that still discriminate.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap−12
Incentives45
Confidence58
scienceOne report1 publisher

Three Pacific cyclones spinning at once match what the spring El Niño outlook called

By September 3 the Northeast Pacific had 15 named storms and six hurricanes against the Atlantic's five and none, the split forecasters called back in spring. A basin tally, though, says nothing about where the rain lands.

Publishers:nasa.gov

Reality

Evidence68
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+8
Incentives38
Confidence62
scienceOne report1 publisher

A waterspout came ashore on Long Island, and the flood playbook does not cover it

The National Weather Service says the Nassau County tornado needed only an unstable, moist atmosphere and rotation in a storm. The same evening brought 4 to 5 inches of rain.

Reality

Evidence61
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+12
Incentives24
Confidence52
leadershipOne report1 publisher

A 75% Chance Of A Quiet Atlantic Is Not A 75% Chance Your Site Stays Dry

NOAA raised its below-normal odds for the 2026 Atlantic season by 20 points in August. The figure describes an ocean basin, and it says nothing about where a storm makes landfall.

Publishers:forbes.com

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption22
Hype gap−12
Incentives32
Confidence54