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Oxford Economics

Oxford Economics is a global research and consulting firm providing macroeconomic forecasting and analysis for businesses, governments, and institutions.

Known aliases

  • the consultancy

Current stories

investOne report1 publisher

Fed's Beige Book says higher fuel costs are spilling into freight, packaging and petroleum-based materials as diesel hits $6.30, AAA says

Diesel averaged $6.30 a gallon on Wednesday, about 68% above its level before the Iran war, according to AAA. Fed district reports describe surcharges spreading, with some firms able to reprice and others absorbing the cost.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence60
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Trump keeps his tariffs while more than 64% of US adults say he has gone too far

President Trump is keeping his tariffs even as more than 64% of US adults say he has gone too far, up from 58% in January. Importers deciding whether to absorb the duties until the Nov. 3 midterms have little in the record to suggest relief follows the vote.

Publishers:abcnews.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives50
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

S&P 500's four-year bull market leans on ten companies that make up 40% of the index

S&P 500's bull market turns four on October 12 with a 117% gain, the sixth-best since World War Two. Its next leg depends on whether a few AI-heavy companies, now a far larger share of the index, can show their data-center spending pays.

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives45
Confidence55
investConfirmed5 publishers

Semiconductor, crude and gold imports push the US trade deficit to $105.6 billion

America's trade deficit widened 13.7% to $105.6 billion in August, its largest since March 2025. Imports this year still run above 2025's, so the narrower year-to-date gap has come from faster export growth while US buying abroad keeps rising.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 9%
Operator
Operator 25%
Investor
Investor 66%

Reality

Evidence82
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives35
Confidence78
investOne report1 publisher

Takaichi's 370 trillion yen plan leaves its public share open under a 40 trillion yen bond cap

Sanae Takaichi is due to address Japan's parliament with a 370 trillion yen, 14-year investment plan whose public share her government has not specified. The speech tests the fiscal part of a bond selloff that also runs on war-driven energy costs and rate hikes.

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

Euro-area firms fund AI without new debt on spending that grows under a third as fast as America's

Euro-area firms are paying for AI without new debt, ECB survey data shows, while the five largest US tech firms carry $3 trillion in debt. That keeps European balance sheets out of a cooling AI bond market, but the compute gap with the US still has to be closed some other way.

Reality

Evidence38
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence35
buildOne report1 publisher

IBM's skill-erosion survey records worry from 60% of 8,800 employees

IBM and Oxford Economics found that 60% of 8,800 full-time employees worried AI was eroding their skills. The closest controlled test, a 52-developer Anthropic experiment, supports building practice into AI-assisted work and is too small to blame the tools for skill loss.

Publishers:dev.to

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap0
Incentives30
Confidence40
investConfirmed2 publishers

US second-quarter growth revised up to 2.2%, fueled by consumer spending, AI investment, and stock-market wealth effects

Commerce Department figures put US second-quarter growth at 2.2%, up from a 1.5% estimate, as consumer spending rose at a 3.8% pace. Chip imports cut that total, so an AI pullback would hit hardest through the stock gains funding wealthy households' spending.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 10%
Operator
Operator 27%
Investor
Investor 63%

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence72
investOne report1 publisher

CFOs claiming AI strategy outnumber AI-ready finance teams ten to one in IBM's survey

IBM's survey of 1,500 CFOs finds 62% say their roles now cover technology or AI strategy, while 6% call their own finance teams transformation-ready. The case that AI budgets now sit with finance rests on CFOs describing their own authority.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption20
Hype gap+35
Incentives70
Confidence40
investConfirmed4 publishers

An untested 1930 tariff clause now taxes $20bn of the $451bn Canada ships south

Both governments drew $20bn lists at rates up to 50%, which holds the collectable duty near $10bn a year; the item with no price tag is the Keystone reopening Canada withdrew when the metals deal died.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 5%
Operator
Operator 44%
Investor
Investor 51%

Reality

Evidence68
Adoption85
Hype gap+5
Incentives55
Confidence65
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Deloitte's pilot-to-production figure counts executives above a 40% threshold

Only a quarter of more than 3,000 executives told Deloitte they have moved 40% or more of their AI pilots into production. The explanation on offer for the other three quarters is one consultant's account of his own project reviews.

Publishers:forbes.com

Reality

Evidence42
Adoption34
Hype gap+28
Incentives78
Confidence52
investOne report1 publisher

Bessent's howitzer line gives Warsh cover to hike into White House pressure

Analysts expect a rise in the base rate when the FOMC concludes on Wednesday, against a White House that has lobbied hard for looser conditions. UBS's Paul Donovan says a surprise is what adds a bond risk premium.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence44
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+26
Incentives58
Confidence42
investOne report1 publisher

Fortune traces the Canada trade deficit to crude the Midwest buys at a discount

Fortune attributes the US goods deficit with Canada to oil bought cheap for Midwest refineries. Washington's answer so far is a 50% tariff on $20 billion of Canadian products and an import ban on whey, alcohol and mopeds.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption68
Hype gap+10
Incentives55
Confidence58
buildOne report1 publisher

One arithmetic line turns last year's peak hour into a baseline -- then headroom sets this year's Black Friday concurrency target

A twelve-week countdown for Black Friday 2026 sizes the load target from sessions per hour and average session length, then pushes a journey-level test past that target until the response-time tail bends.

Publishers:dev.to

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives30
Confidence55
productOne report1 publisher

Cognizant cites $4.5tn AI exposure research as it builds 15,000-person job family

Cognizant published its AI exposure research and its graduate hiring plan on the same day. Read together, they show whose exposure number comes with a caveat attached and whose gets quoted straight.

Publishers:thenextweb.com

Reality

Evidence46
Adoption28
Hype gap+34
Incentives86
Confidence55
productOne report1 publisher

PwC's 2050 model has data centres spending 93 cents of every capex dollar on equipment

PwC's Oxford Economics modelling puts $31.6 trillion into AI infrastructure by 2050 and raises equipment to 93% of data centre capex, which is the figure that decides how any of these sites get financed.

Publishers:thenextweb.com

Reality

Evidence38
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+18
Incentives72
Confidence44
investOne report1 publisher

Amy Webb puts the coming AI correction inside the customer's own review queue

AI made production cheap and pushed the bill downstream onto review and integration work the buyer already pays for, which is where Webb expects the correction even as Bain finds 90% of budgets still rising.

Publishers:fortune.com

Reality

Evidence42
Adoption55
Hype gap+30
Incentives68
Confidence45
productOne report1 publisher

Britain's digital infrastructure number tripled by definition, then fell 4 percent

The ONS widened what counts as digital infrastructure to include data centres, hardware and spectrum. The bigger total went backwards in its first year.

Publishers:thenextweb.com

Reality

Evidence61
Adoption68
Hype gap+38
Incentives58
Confidence57

Earlier coverage

  1. Bitcoin's close under the 200-week line is a sizing input, not a forecast

    Invest · August 17, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers