Coinbase, which says it custodies about 5% of all bitcoin, warned on October 13 that a quantum-resistant upgrade could take years. It backs BIP-360, P2TRv2 and hybrid wallets now and wants dormant and lost coins settled separately.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 47%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 28%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives60
- Confidence68
Charles Hoskinson said on Oct. 9 that Vitalik Buterin's AI warning could slow the lattice-based protections NIST standardized in 2024. Ethereum is the one project the sources show moving away from lattices, so the test is whether anyone else follows.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Hybrid ML-KEM is live on google.com and googleapis.com, and Cloud KMS post-quantum algorithms are generally available. The rest of the roadmap is a dated dependency schedule.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives55
- Confidence65
NIST sets 2030 and 2035 retirement dates for quantum-vulnerable algorithms, raising stakes for banks
Post-quantum standards were finalised in August 2024, and NIST means to phase out most quantum-vulnerable algorithms by 2035. For banks the harder problem is finding every place RSA and ECC are written into application code.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+24
- Incentives64
- Confidence50
buildOne report1 publisher IonQ's secp256k1 estimate spends 13 physical qubits on every logical one
The 26-day figure is a runtime rather than a date, and it works out to one logical Toffoli every 57.6 milliseconds on trapped-ion hardware whose scale IonQ's roadmap does not reach until 2028. No error rates are published to check it.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives80
- Confidence40