Anthropic's Fermat swarm failed until a theorem graph told the agents what to do next
Kevin Buzzard holds a five-year grant to do the same job by hand. He compiled Anthropic's 13 million lines himself and says the result teaches mathematicians nothing and anyone running agent fleets quite a lot.
The Product Desk
What happened
- Anthropic published its formalisation of Fermat's Last Theorem on Friday, the output of dozens of Claude agents that wrote 13 million lines of Lean code.
- The agents proved 30,300 intermediate theorems and used 29,500 of them in a complete, computer-checked proof of the conjecture Fermat left in a margin around 1637.
- Kevin Buzzard of Imperial College London, who has led the community formalisation effort since 2024, compiled the code himself and ran the standard checker before blogging "Anthropic has beaten me to it".
- His verdict on the mathematics is that nothing changed: he puts Wiles's proof at 99.9% likely correct, says most number theorists sit at 100%, and wrote that the formalisation adds nothing.
- Hunting for a soundness exploit, Buzzard had an agent flag every line that was not a definition or a proof, then inspected the roughly 100 that came back and found they defined a convenience tactic.
Why it matters
- What it costs cost A £1m five-year public grant now sits next to an eleven-day run whose only public number is a list-price illustration, and funders will reach for that comparison even though no invoice was ever raised.
- What it limits constraint The result travels only to work a machine can reject on its own, since Lean either compiles or does not, and a support workflow or migration script has no equivalent judge to stand in for the reviewer.
- What it sets up precedent Buzzard expects formalisation of modern research to start happening on the fly, which would make a machine-checked file something a paper is expected to carry rather than a multi-year programme of its own.
Next story · Science · 2d ago
Thomas Bloom stops marking Erdős problems open or solved as AI-written proofs multiplyConfirmed2 publishers
The check ran on a 96-core machine, and it was not quick. Buzzard measured the repository at 13.4 million lines, more than five times the size of Mathlib, and reports that it takes nearly twenty times as long to compile [17]. Twenty over five is four, so each line of this proof costs roughly four times what a line of the community library costs to verify [22]. That is the standing bill for anyone who wants to build on the artifact rather than admire it. It is also not the artifact Buzzard's grant was buying. The proof follows the 1995 exposition of Wiles by Darmon, Diamond and Taylor, not the modern route his project has been formalising [15]. The most instructive part of Anthropic's write-up is the run that failed. Agents made early progress, then lost track of the project's state and stopped collaborating, and those dead runs still supplied around 7% of the non-boilerplate lines in the finished proof [9]. The repair was not a stronger model. It was Prove2Me, an open platform built by Anthropic researcher Tianyi Peng with collaborators at Columbia University, which maintains a graph of theorem statements so an agent can see what to attempt next, splits statements and proofs into separate files to speed compilation, and keeps a plain-language description of each statement so finished work can be found and reused [10]. Wrap that in a multi-agent harness on Claude Code and the same models closed the job inside a fortnight [11]. The human steering that survives in Anthropic's account is fragments: "Jacobian as a scheme sounds high priority", and "Push Mazur to be done soon" [12]. Teams often assume the bottleneck is model capability and plan to wait for the next release. Anthropic's account undercuts that: the weights were identical, the run failed and then succeeded, and a shared state artifact was the only thing that changed. Then the money, which is where the comparison gets loose. Buzzard's project has £1m over five years, an average of £200,000 a year [7][21]. Anthropic says the run consumed about six billion output tokens from an internal research model it calls roughly comparable to Claude Fable 5.1 [8], and at the $50 per million output tokens Fable 5.1 lists, six billion is $300,000 [13], or about 2.2 cents per line of Lean [23]. No invoice was raised, the model was internal, and a lab's own inference costs it less than list price, so this is the only public arithmetic rather than a price [14]. Buzzard wonders in print whether Anthropic spent more than he was given [7]. That is a pound grant measured against a dollar illustration, and everyone quoting him is making the same comparison. On soundness: Lean has had bugs found in it recently, and an agent determined enough could in principle exploit one to prove anything [18]. After his own inspection, and OpenAI models' review of the Lean codebase finding no soundness issues in the version used, Buzzard's summary is that a hack finishing the job is extremely unlikely [20]. Whether this transfers to your own long-horizon agent work turns on two things. The first is whether anything can reject bad output before a human reads it; Lean compiles or it does not, and a comparator confirmed the theorem proved matches the statement in Mathlib [16]. The second is whether there is a durable artifact the agents read to pick their next task and write back to when they finish. With both in place, the result is 13 million lines and a mathematician willing to compile them. With a checker but no shared state, the result is the first run: real output that never assembled into a proof, contributing that 7% salvage.
What to watch
- Whether another group reproduces the coordination result using the open Prove2Me platform on a different corpus, without an internal frontier model.
- Whether anyone publishes actual compute spend for a run like this rather than a list-price illustration.
- Whether Buzzard's EPSRC project keeps formalising the modern route now that a proof via the 1995 exposition exists and compiles.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence75
- Adoption10
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence70
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Anthropic published the proof on Friday. Dozens of Claude agents wrote 13 million lines of Lean code.
- [2]
The agents proved 30,300 intermediate theorems and used 29,500 of them in a complete, computer-checked proof of the conjecture Pierre de Fermat scribbled in a margin around 1637.
- [3]
Kevin Buzzard of Imperial College London has led the community effort to formalise Fermat's Last Theorem since 2024, funded by the EPSRC.
- [4]
Buzzard compiled Anthropic's code himself and ran the standard checking tool over it, then wrote it up on his blog under the headline "Anthropic has beaten me to it".
- [5]
On the mathematics, Buzzard says the formalisation changes nothing: he puts the odds that Wiles's proof is correct at 99.9%, says most of the number theory community sits at 100%, and wrote that the formalisation "just faithfully follows the early literature on the proof and adds nothing".
- [6]
Buzzard wrote that an AI swarm formalised thousands of pages of literature end to end in eleven days, and that if that is now possible, formalisation of modern research will start happening on the fly.
- [7]
Buzzard was given £1m to run his project over five years; Anthropic took eleven days, and he wonders whether they spent more.
- [8]
Anthropic says the run consumed about six billion output tokens, from an internal research model it describes as roughly comparable to Claude Fable 5.1.
- [9]
The first attempt failed: the agents made early progress, then lost track of the project's state and stopped collaborating. Those failed runs still contributed around 7% of the non-boilerplate lines in the final proof.
- [10]
What fixed it was not a better model but Prove2Me, an open platform built by Anthropic researcher Tianyi Peng with collaborators at Columbia University. It maintains a graph of theorem statements so agents can see what to attempt next, splits statements and proofs into separate files to speed compilation, and keeps a plain-language description of each statement so work can be found and reused.
- [11]
With a multi-agent harness built on Claude Code added, the same models finished the job in under a fortnight.
- [12]
Peng's instructions to the swarm, as Anthropic reports them, ran to fragments: "Jacobian as a scheme sounds high priority." "Push Mazur to be done soon."
- [13]
Fable 5.1 costs $50 per million output tokens, the same price Anthropic set in September; six billion output tokens at that rate is $300,000.
- [14]
The $300,000 is an illustration rather than a cost: the model was internal so nobody raised an invoice, and a company's own inference costs it less than list price. It is the only public arithmetic available.
- [15]
The proof follows the 1995 exposition of the Wiles argument by Darmon, Diamond and Taylor, which is not the modern route Buzzard has been formalising.
- [16]
The proof uses only Lean's three standard axioms, and a comparator confirmed the theorem it proves matches the statement in Mathlib, the community's mathematics library.
- [17]
At 13 million lines the proof is more than five times the size of Mathlib itself; Buzzard measured it at 13.4 million lines and says it takes nearly twenty times as long to compile, on a 96-core machine.
- [18]
Lean has had soundness bugs found in it recently, and a sufficiently determined agent could in principle exploit one to prove anything.
- [19]
Buzzard asked an agent to flag every line of the repository that was not a definition or a proof; roughly 100 lines came back, he inspected them, and they defined a convenience tactic.
- [20]
Buzzard reports that OpenAI's models have reviewed Lean's codebase and found no soundness issues in the version used, and his own summary is that a hack finishing the job is extremely unlikely.
- [21]
Buzzard's grant averages £200,000 a year.
- [22]
Compilation of the Anthropic proof costs roughly four times as much machine time per line as Mathlib: nearly twenty times the compile time spread over more than five times the lines.
- [23]
The illustrative $300,000 list-price figure works out to about 2.2 cents per line of Lean in the finished repository.
Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- siliconangle.comAnthropic uses Claude to formalize proof of Fermat’s Last Theorem
2 articles · September 4, 2026
- thenextweb.comThe man paid to prove Fermat by hand says Claude did it in 11 days
1 article · September 6, 2026