Apple takes 33% of China's phone sales in a week when only Pro iPhone 18s were on sale

In the week of September 14, a shopper in China who wanted a new iPhone 18 could choose a Pro or a Pro Max ^[3][8]. The standard iPhone 18 was not on sale yet, because Apple launched both Pro models well ahead of it ^[8]. Counterpoint Research thinks some of those shoppers upgraded instead of waiting ^[8].

What buyers actually did, on Counterpoint's numbers, was this: iPhone 18 Pro sales in the first three days ran 12% above iPhone 17 Pro sales across that model's entire first week last year, MacRumors reported ^[4]. Those three days were the only Pro sales in Week 38, the week Apple took first place ^[2][5]. The new phones had three selling days to the old model's seven, 43% of the window, and still came out ahead ^[12].

The version a product team tells itself is tidier. Hold the cheaper model back, and buyers who would have settled for it pay up for the premium one. Counterpoint lists that as the first of three reasons, and words it carefully: some buyers may have decided to upgrade ^[8]. The other two reasons would lift the same number with no help from the calendar. Premium phone prices have risen across the market, and buyers have got used to paying more ^[9]. Apple absorbed some of its higher component costs, so the Pro was comparatively better value ^[10]. Retailers and carriers also put heavy advertising and promotion behind it, which Counterpoint calls "aggressive channel support" ^[11].

Each of those produces a strong first week, and only the delay is a product-mix decision. Separating them takes one figure: how many Pro buyers had planned to buy the standard model. The report as published does not include it.

The market claim needs the same care. China's new smartphone sales had fallen 17% year on year since July as costs rose, according to Counterpoint's China Weekly Smartphone Sell-Out Tracker ^[6]. Counterpoint says the Pro launch reversed that trend ^[7]. The growth figure it gives is for Apple's Pro line measured against last year's Pro line ^[4].

Apple runs a version of the test again soon. The iPhone Duo goes on sale October 23, and MacRumors notes that Chinese buyers want foldable devices far more than buyers elsewhere ^[13].

In my view the Pro-first calendar is worth copying only by a team that also has a price advantage like the one Apple bought by absorbing costs ^[10]. The tradeoff is a launch window in which the buyer who wanted the cheaper model has nothing new to buy. To check whether a stagger moved mix, take two readings after the cheaper tier ships. One is whether the premium tier's share of unit sales stays above its last-cycle level or falls back to it. The other is whether total units across the whole launch window went up, or the same buyers simply came earlier.

High share with more units means the stagger moved mix and can be repeated. High share with flat units means premium demand came forward, and the next cycle has to replace it. Low share with more units means price and promotion carried the launch. Low share with flat units means the date moved and nothing else did. Apple's China data so far cannot be placed on either axis: it covers three days of Pro sales and no sales of the standard iPhone 18 ^[5][8].