More people expect AI to cut jobs than create them in 34 of 37 countries
Pew asked more than 42,000 people what AI will do to employment, and the median answer was fewer jobs. TechSpot's reading of the tables puts the most AI-aware respondents among the most worried, and a Mercer survey puts executives at 99%.
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What happened
- A new Pew Research Center poll found that in 34 of the 37 countries surveyed, more people believe AI will lead to fewer jobs than believe it will lead to more.
- South Korea and Australia were the most pessimistic at 76% expecting fewer jobs, with the United States third at 71% over the next 20 years.
- The United States is the only country where Pew had asked the question before, and the share there expecting job losses from AI has risen seven percentage points in two years.
- Nigeria was the only country surveyed where more respondents expected AI to create jobs than to cut them, and the margin was a single point.
- Bloomberg's analysis, published Thursday, counted layoff notices for more than 14,500 Bay Area tech employees filed between June 2025 and June 2026.
Why it matters
- What it limits constraint TechSpot's reading of the tables puts the most AI-aware respondents among the most concerned about jobs, so the staff who pilot a new internal tool first are the group least likely to take a reassurance memo at face value.
- Who has to decide decision With Mercer's executives at 99% expecting AI-driven cuts within two years, any rollout note promising no headcount effect contradicts what the executive population itself told a survey, and someone has to choose which version to publish.
- What it sets up precedent Meta's abandoned second round of cuts shows staff resistance combining with weak results to stop a plan. That kind of pushback belongs on the delivery risk list as well as the communications one.
- What doesn't add up contradiction The two accounts of the same Pew report count 36 and 37 countries, so a per-country denominator quoted in an internal deck depends on which write-up the author read.
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Pew's four answer shares add up to 93 [18]. TechSpot describes them as a 37-country median: 46% expecting fewer jobs, 13% expecting little difference, 9% expecting more jobs, 25% unsure [3]. Each share is the middle country's answer for that one option, and the middle country is not the same country across options, so the four are not slices of one sample. Quoting the 46 against the 9 as a five-to-one margin [19] treats two separately computed medians as one population. The US figure sits 25 points above the median on the fewer-jobs option [20].
For anyone planning an internal rollout, the within-country breakdowns carry more than the headline does. In many of the middle-income countries surveyed, wealthier and more educated respondents were the ones more likely to expect AI to reduce job numbers over the next two decades, and TechSpot attributes much of that gap to greater uncertainty among people with lower incomes and less education [11]. TechSpot also reports that people with high awareness of AI are more concerned about its impact on jobs [12]. In a number of countries the most concerned age group is 18 to 34, and concern in the US has grown most in that group [10].
The concerned-against-excited split is narrower than the jobs question. Across the 37 countries, a 37% median were more concerned than excited, a 41% median were equally concerned and excited, and Israel is the only country where more respondents were primarily excited [13].
Executives are on the same side of the jobs question as the public. A Mercer survey cited by TechSpot found that 99% of the executives questioned expected AI to lead to job cuts within two years [25]. That 99% is what executives told Mercer. Meta cut 10% of its workforce and then abandoned plans for a second wave amid disappointing AI results and employee resistance [26]. Some employers have rehired workers they replaced with AI after the automation failed to deliver [23].
The measured job losses in the same newsletter are smaller than the expectation. The Bay Area tech workforce is about 375,000 people and is down roughly 7% since 2024, according to the analysis The Deep View cites [15]. The one-year notice count Bloomberg published works out to about 3.9% of that standing workforce [21].
These surveys do not test how an internal announcement moves an employee's expectation. They map the starting position an announcement lands on, and it was already there in March, when Quinnipiac University found 70% of Americans believed AI will reduce job opportunities and 55% believed it would do more harm than good [16]. Jason Hiner wrote in The Deep View that Pew data "shows people overwhelmingly expect AI to reduce jobs, leaving Silicon Valley with a credibility gap it still hasn't closed" [17].
What to watch
- Whether Pew repeats the jobs question outside the US, which so far is the only country it has trended.
- Whether Meta revives the second round of cuts it abandoned, and on what stated grounds.
- Whether the Bay Area's 375,000 tech headcount keeps falling in the next count.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+16
- Incentives44
- Confidence66
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
A study published Thursday by Pew Research Center included more than 42,000 people across 36 countries and found people broadly believe AI will diminish job opportunities rather than create them.
- [2]
In the Pew report, 46% of survey respondents believe AI will lead to fewer jobs, 9% said it would lead to more, around 13% said the technology would have minimal impact on jobs, and 25% said they were not sure.
- [3]
Across a 37-country median, 46% said there will be fewer jobs, 13% said there would not be much difference, 9% said there will be more jobs, and 25% were not sure.
- [4]
The US was the third most pessimistic nation, with 71% of participants saying AI will lead to fewer jobs in the country over the next 20 years; only South Korea and Australia, both on 76%, were higher.
- [5]
Australia, South Korea and the US were the least confident overall about AI's economic and labor impacts.
- [6]
Several respondents said AI would cause the middle class to dwindle by widening the gap between rich and poor, with 46% of US respondents sharing this view; 56% of young people in the US said AI will fuel the gap, against 38% of those 50 and older.
- [7]
A new global Pew Research Center poll found that more people in 34 out of 37 countries believe AI will lead to fewer rather than more jobs.
- [8]
More people in Thailand and the Philippines picked the 'not sure' option.
- [9]
The US is the only country where Pew has asked this question before, and over the past two years the share of people who believe more jobs will be lost from AI has increased 7 percentage points.
- [10]
In a number of countries, younger people aged between 18 and 34 are the group most concerned about AI job losses, and in the US concern about job losses from AI has increased the most among this demographic.
- [11]
In many of the middle-income countries surveyed, wealthier and more educated respondents are more likely to expect AI to reduce job numbers over the next two decades, and much of that gap reflects greater uncertainty among people with lower incomes and less education.
- [12]
TechSpot reports that more people who have high awareness of AI are more concerned about its impact on jobs.
- [13]
A 37% median across the 37 countries were more concerned than excited, a 41% median were equally concerned and excited, and Israel is the only nation in which more people are primarily excited than primarily concerned.
- [14]
Tech employers filed layoff notices for more than 14,500 Bay Area employees between June 2025 and June 2026, according to analysis published by Bloomberg on Thursday.
- [15]
The San Francisco Bay Area employs about 375,000 tech workers overall, down about 7% since 2024.
- [16]
A March report from Quinnipiac University found that 55% of Americans felt AI would do more harm than good, and 70% believed AI will reduce job opportunities.
- [17]
Jason Hiner wrote that Pew data "shows people overwhelmingly expect AI to reduce jobs, leaving Silicon Valley with a credibility gap it still hasn't closed."
- [18]
The four reported answer shares sum to 93, not 100.
- [19]
The fewer-jobs median is about five times the more-jobs median.
- [20]
The US fewer-jobs figure is 25 percentage points above the 37-country median for that option.
- [21]
The 14,500 Bay Area layoff notices equal about 3.9% of the region's roughly 375,000 tech workers.
- [22]
The two write-ups of the same Pew report give different country counts: 36 countries in The Deep View's account and 37 in TechSpot's.
- [23]
Some employers are rehiring workers they replaced with AI after automation failed to deliver.
- [24]
Nigeria was the only country in the poll where more people believed AI will create more jobs, with the figures given as 26% against 27%.
- [25]
A Mercer survey found that 99% of executives questioned expected AI to lead to job cuts within two years.
- [26]
Meta cut 10% of its workforce before abandoning plans for a second wave amid disappointing AI results and employee resistance.
Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- archive.thedeepview.comSilicon Valley is still losing the AI jobs debate
1 article · September 18, 2026
- techspot.comMost of the world expects AI to shrink the job market, with Americans among the most pessimistic | TechSpot
1 article · September 18, 2026
Topics and entities
Entities
- Quinnipiac University
- Bloomberg
- Dario Amodei
- Pew Research Center
- Meta
- TechSpot
- Mercer