Treasury licenses Russian diesel sales and imports until April 2027

Treasury's text is exact to the minute. Trump's schedule is looser. The authorization ends at 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on April 7, 2027 ^[4]. The three tranches Trump described add up to 1.8 million tonnes ^[9], and only the first 300,000, a sixth of the total, is meant to move at once ^[11]. In the BBC's account, the final million comes at some point after November ^[2]. Neither outlet reported whether it is expected before the license lapses.

The two outlets also disagree on where prices start from. NBC News put the rise in diesel prices since the Iran war began in February at almost 70% ^[13]. The BBC said US diesel prices have doubled over the same period ^[14]. The difference changes how much a price fall would have to do. Getting back to February levels would take a fall of about 41% on NBC's figure ^[16] and 50% on the BBC's ^[15].

A skeptic would point to the last attempt. Earlier this year Trump temporarily eased sanctions on Russia to slow rising oil prices, and according to NBC News that largely did not change the trajectory of prices, which kept rising for months ^[8]. That point only partly holds. This license covers a single product, diesel of Russian origin ^[4], and it comes with a delivery schedule that can be checked against what arrives in November ^[2]. Both the volumes and the timing still come from Trump's account of his talks with Putin ^[2].

Trump made his case on Truth Social. "Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!" he wrote ^[12]. Treasury's own instrument is more modest. The BBC described it as a temporary license issued shortly after the announcement ^[5], and NBC reported that Treasury presented it as easing sanctions on Russia through April 7 ^[3].

For a fuel-heavy operator, the trade-off this quarter is between locking in fuel near the record prices of recent weeks ^[6] and staying exposed to further spikes while waiting for the promised tonnage. In my view, the evidence supports planning around the April 2027 end date and counting the tonnage only as it ships. That choice sets up next quarter's test. If the 500,000 tonnes promised for November arrive and prices ease, budgets that assumed some relief will hold ^[2]. If they do not, the shortfall lands in fuel lines while the license is still due to close on April 7, 2027 ^[4].