Topic
Global markets for buying and selling crude oil, where prices move on supply disruptions, OPEC output, geopolitics, and inventory levels.
South Korea held its gasoline price cap at 1,784 won a liter for a fourth straight period, with Brent at $105.90. Industry estimates put refiners' losses at 7 trillion to 8 trillion won, above the 5.6497 trillion won budgeted.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishersReality
Trump ruled out US strikes on Iran before the November 3 midterms and kept the naval blockade in force. Brent still traded near $103 a barrel on Friday, and a pledge that lapses on election day returns no Iranian oil to the market.
Perspective Coverage
8 publishersReality
Brent crude rose 3.7% to $103.91 a barrel on Thursday as data showed Iran stepping up tanker attacks in Hormuz and reports of new US strikes spread. With the 10-year Treasury at 5.32%, the oil move hit equities as inflation risk and European indexes opened 0.64% to 1.06% lower.
Reality
Brent crude settled at $104.28 a barrel on Oct. 8, up 4%, after Axios reported the Pentagon had ordered preparations for renewed strikes on Iran. Trump said the same day he would not attack before the Nov. 3 midterms, a promise that stops at the vote while energy and freight budgets run well past it.
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Kpler says about 40% of Gulf crude now leaves without crossing Hormuz, up from 17% before the war, as exports regain prewar levels. Iran's own exports are blockaded to almost nothing, and it can still strike the onshore oil assets that now carry more of the flow.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishersReality
Brent fell to $99.49 as Gulf crude flows outside Iran climbed past 81% of pre-war levels and the G7 agreed to release 100 million barrels. Rising tanker attacks near Hormuz keep the cost of shipping and insuring those barrels high.
Reality
Poten & Partners puts a Middle East-to-Asia supertanker charter above $1.2 million a day, up from about $30,000 in January. Freight and lost refining capacity help hold Brent above $100 while Hormuz flows sit near 80% of pre-war levels.
Reality
Crude opened Monday higher after President Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz proposal, with December Brent at $98.69 and November WTI at $93.78. Brent has won back 87% of last week's drop and WTI only 44%, held back by talk of a U.S. diesel export ban.
Reality
WTI has not fallen five days in a row since February. What set the run off was a three-hour meeting in New York plus Iran's conditional offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Pump prices are still at record highs.
Reality
Drone attacks shut the East-West pipeline that moves about 4 million barrels a day to Yanbu. WTI added 2.5% to $102, and the industry sources Reuters cited cannot agree whether repairs run five to six weeks or less.
Reality
The International Energy Agency expects a demand shock this year comparable to the pandemic's, and traders are pricing supply anyway, because the missing barrels show up in inventories while the missing demand shows up only in forecasts.
Reality
The national average reached $4.15 on Friday, above the 2012 Labor Day record of $3.82 but below May's $4.56 peak. For planning, the numbers that bite are August's $4.09 average and the $2.36 gap between states.
Reality
The reserve fell below 300 million barrels for the first time since the 1980s, and the argument is no longer about willingness to release oil. It is about salt.
Reality