Trump's Iran no-strike pledge pushes the oil-supply risk past November 3

Trump wrote on Truth Social on October 8: "We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd."

Trump said the U.S. naval blockade of Iran would remain in place and reiterated that Tehran would not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon.

The announcement came 26 days before the midterm elections.

Trump said the US was having "productive discussions" with Tehran.

Trump told reporters late Wednesday that his administration was considering renewed strikes against Tehran before the election, helping send oil prices higher; Brent crude rose more than 4% Thursday to above $104 a barrel.

Kpler data show about 11.3 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products exited the Strait of Hormuz during the week ended Tuesday, while total oil flows from the region stood at 20.4 million barrels per day.

Just 31% of Americans supported US military action against Iran in an August Reuters/Ipsos poll, down from 37% in March, while 83% expected the conflict to be prolonged.

CNBC reported that the more diplomatic tone comes as voters are already casting midterm ballots and public support for the war has fallen.

By Friday Brent had given back roughly $1.09 of a $4 rise, about a quarter of Thursday's jump.

On Thursday OFAC, part of the US Treasury, issued new sanctions on 27 firms, six individuals and 22 vessels involved in the Iranian oil trade, as part of Operation Economic Outcast.

The sanctions apply to business entities operating in India, Turkey, China, the United Arab Emirates, the UK and the Marshall Islands, including firms that handled cargo shipments, vessel management and the sale of oil products.

Treasury highlighted 17 vessels accused of helping Iran secretly move millions of barrels of oil and petrochemicals into markets across southern and eastern Asia despite existing US sanctions.

According to a senior Treasury official, the action is the biggest taken by the administration so far against Iran's last remaining network of hidden oil shipments.

Friday's Brent price sat about $2.91 above the level implied before Thursday's jump.

The US is sending roughly 9,000 sailors and Marines and a third aircraft carrier to the region, a buildup that could put three US carriers in the Middle East by late October, the Associated Press reported.

Reuters reported in September that top Trump aides were pushing to keep the war contained through the midterms to limit Republican losses, while leaving open heavier US strikes after votes are tallied.

At a campaign rally Wednesday night, Trump said a deal with Iran was "not really something that I wanted to do."

The national average gasoline price stood at $4.36 a gallon Thursday, up from $2.98 just before the war began in late February, according to AAA data.

After Trump's remarks, Polymarket traders assigned a roughly 60% chance that a ceasefire would hold through November 15.

Iran's foreign minister said the country would answer US proposals in the coming days.

Brent's implied level before Thursday's jump was roughly $100 a barrel.

Trump's 22 million barrel overnight figure is nearly twice Kpler's 11.3 million barrels a day leaving Hormuz and exceeds the region's total 20.4 million barrels a day.

Gasoline at $4.36 is $1.38 a gallon, or about 46%, above its pre-war $2.98.

Polymarket's pricing leaves roughly a 40% chance that the ceasefire does not hold through November 15.