Patrick Witt has left the White House crypto council after his Defense Department detail expired, and no replacement has been named. The CLARITY Act he worked on now waits for a lame duck with 22 Senate session days, none set aside for crypto.
Perspective Coverage
8 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 14%
- Operator
- Operator 39%
- Investor
- Investor 47%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence74
CFTC proposed two crypto leverage rules under existing law on October 5, 20 days after the CLARITY Act stalled 49-50 in the Senate. Until Congress acts, what counts as compliant for leveraged retail crypto will be set by CFTC rulemaking.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence64
Fairshake's affiliates reported $2.7 million in House spending after the Senate blocked the CLARITY Act in September. The money goes to House races while the bill sits in the Senate, so the clear rules institutional investors are waiting for have not arrived.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence62
Two days after the Senate stalled the CLARITY Act, the CFTC's Market Participants Division opened Phantom's March no-action position to any software provider that stays clear of custody and order routing, on ten conditions.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 42%
- Operator
- Operator 29%
- Investor
- Investor 29%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence74
A House committee handed crypto users a break on fees of $10 or less and paid for it by importing the anti-abuse rules that govern stocks, and the traders who harvest losses in December are the ones paying.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 11%
- Operator
- Operator 41%
- Investor
- Investor 48%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence65
Trump asked Congress again for the CLARITY Act. A mid-September cloture vote, a crowded Senate calendar and an unresolved ethics fight say the clarity is not arriving this year.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 30%
- Operator
- Operator 36%
- Investor
- Investor 34%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives72
- Confidence64
Fairshake backs 32 House incumbents after the CLARITY Act falls 11 votes short of Senate cloture
Fairshake is backing 32 House incumbents who voted for the CLARITY Act after a 49-50 Senate cloture vote left the bill 11 short of the 60 it needed. The money defends votes already cast in a House that passed the bill in July 2025, while the Senate path still needs Democrats.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap0
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
CLARITY's newest 14 pages hand the DeFi coverage test to the SEC and CFTC
The bill grew again last week, and the new pages delegate the hard definition to regulators while the ethics language Democrats made their price stayed out. Trump has not said what curbs he will accept.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
Democrats spend Sunday deciding whether 100 edits are enough to move CLARITY on Monday
Two days before a procedural vote that decides only whether the Senate proceeds at all, the open items on the CLARITY Act are ethics limits on officials' crypto income and how stablecoin yield gets regulated.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence30
Bitwise's Matt Hougan says the Senate's 49-50 cloture failure will not end the crypto rally, and points to a summer in which prices rose as the odds of passage halved. Only Congress can give the CFTC spot authority.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 13%
- Investor
- Investor 80%
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
Crypto's 635-page Clarity Act stalled in the Senate with no realistic path back before year-end, Cato's Ryan Chan-Wei wrote. He blames an ethics dispute over conflicts at the highest levels of government, and that dispute will meet whatever bill the next Congress writes.
Perspective Coverage
17 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 16%
- Operator
- Operator 41%
- Investor
- Investor 43%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives65
- Confidence62
Three federal agencies moved on crypto rules within 48 hours of the Senate's 49-50 vote that stalled the Clarity Act. Only the stablecoin rules sit on a statute, so businesses using the SEC and CFTC relief hold permissions a later administration can withdraw.
Reality
- Evidence52
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives55
- Confidence55
Senate Republicans rewrite the CLARITY Act to move seven Democrats before Tuesday's vote
Senate Republicans rewrote the CLARITY Act on Sunday night and put their concessions into the text. Two of them add supervision over exchanges and stablecoin issuers, and one is relief for developers.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
Fairshake, the crypto super PAC, is backing 32 House incumbents in November and putting about $1 million each behind three Democrats and three Republicans. That $6 million, a fifth of what it is spending against Sherrod Brown, goes mostly to members of the committees that handle crypto bills.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 10%
- Operator
- Operator 55%
- Investor
- Investor 35%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives72
- Confidence65
Pretty Good Policy for Zcash has registered Divij Pandya as its sole Washington lobbyist on a $750,000 first-year budget. The move takes Zcash's policy work out of developer lab ZODL and puts it in a separate group that looks to Zcash Community Grants for its money.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 26%
- Operator
- Operator 46%
- Investor
- Investor 28%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives55
- Confidence70
US crypto holders on extension must file 2025 returns by October 15 or pay a failure-to-file penalty of 5% of unpaid tax a month. The percentage applies only to tax not paid in April, so the date costs most for filers who underpaid in spring and still cannot document their cost basis.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
BitGo's chief says the stalled CLARITY Act leaves crypto custody risk bundled inside exchanges
BitGo CEO Mike Belshe says the Senate's 50-49 vote that stalled the CLARITY Act lets single firms keep running an exchange, a brokerage and custody together. He thinks a failure at such a venue could be worse than Lehman, and reviving the bill means finding votes it lacked in September.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
Fight Fight Fight LLC will seat the top 185 time-weighted holders of $TRUMP, a token about 97% below its peak, at a November 22 dinner with Donald Trump. Earlier rounds drew leaderboard buying that unwound once invitations went out, so the November 12 snapshot will test how much of the token's bid is for the seat.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 41%
- Investor
- Investor 54%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives85
- Confidence65
Coinbase-backed Stand With Crypto named its first three Senate endorsements two weeks after the Clarity Act failed 49-50. The group funds no campaigns itself, so its main Ohio pick depends on PAC money, starting with Fairshake's $30 million pledge for Jon Husted against Sherrod Brown.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives75
- Confidence65
Bitwise's Matt Hougan argues the Clarity Act's Senate failure gave crypto better rules
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says the Senate's Sept. 15 failure to advance the Clarity Act helped crypto, citing Bitcoin's roughly 8% gain since the vote. Half of his case is the status quo outliving the bill, and the rest is SEC relief that future regulators can change.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50