Topic
The trading of national currencies against one another through spot, forward and swap contracts, where prices set the domestic value of cross-border cash flows.
South Korea's won closed at 1,331.4 per dollar, its strongest since Oct. 2, 2024, after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gave no signal on October's meeting. The 13.2-won gain came a day after KOSPI fell more than 7%, so how long it holds depends on foreign money.
Reality
The dollar index is set for a 0.45% weekly fall, CNA reported, yet it rose on Wednesday when tech stocks sold off. The case that AI stress no longer lifts the dollar rests on one session and a conditional forecast.
Reality
Korea's won closed at 1,338.3 per dollar on Wednesday, 6.8 won stronger, after the New York Fed's John Williams said one more hike may be needed this year. Foreign investors sold a net 1.18 trillion won of shares, a seventh straight session, Yonhap reported.
Reality
Dollar index slid 0.25% to 102.29 on Tuesday, just under its 18-month high, as traders bet Middle East tension stays contained before the midterms. Wednesday's CPI tests a Fed priced at an 80% hold this month and 75bp of tightening by late 2027.
Reality
South Korea's won closed at 1,345.1 per dollar on Oct. 13, down 10 won, as foreign investors net sold 4.5 trillion won of shares for a sixth session. Sedaily cites a Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia, Yonhap cites AI worries and a Chinese chip report.
Reality
Bullish dollar positions rose to about $36 billion in the week to October 7 from $8.4 billion three weeks earlier, weekly US regulator data shows. Wednesday's US inflation report is the next test for a dollar trading near 18-month highs.
Reality
The euro was on course for a fifth straight weekly drop on Friday, after worry over France's record debt sent it to a 17-month low of $1.1161 on Monday. The dollar index has also risen four weeks running, so the Fed's rate path now looks like a bigger driver than French budget politics.
Reality
France's borrowing premium over Germany has widened to its highest since 2012, SCMP reported, as fiscal worries build before next year's election. Handelsbanken's FX strategist says the euro's weakness now comes partly from French politics, on top of a dollar lifted by a Fed leaning hawkish.
Reality
Koreans buying yen are paying the least in about 18 years, as 100 yen fell into the mid-800s of won this week from about 950 in early summer. Most of the drop is the won's chip-export rally against the dollar, Korea Times figures show, so the saving depends on that boom lasting.
Reality
Brent's return above $100 lifted the dollar index 0.3% to 102.13 on Wednesday, even as traders cut October Fed hike odds to 21.6% from about 51%. That leaves the dollar leaning on oil prices while the September minutes test how much appetite the Fed still has for hikes.
Reality
France's bond spread over Bunds touched about 150 basis points on Friday, the most since 2011, and the euro fell to $1.1118 on Monday, a 17-month low. Holders of unhedged euro assets now carry French fiscal risk through the currency as well as through the bonds.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishersReality
US 10-year Treasury yields rose to 5.30% on Wednesday, their highest since 2002, even though inflation came in cooler. Whatever drove it, growth or government debt, a cash-flow model that counted on cooling inflation to lower its discount rate now needs a higher one.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishersReality
Speculators built a record $51.4 billion net dollar long by late July, weeks before G5 currency option volatility sank to a post-COVID low of 5.33. Currency protection got cheaper even as year-end rate bets climbed from 3.05% to above 4%.
Reality
A Seoul Economic Daily poll of 20 foreign exchange specialists puts the level that would steady Korean growth and inflation in the low 1,300s. The question it asked was what level is appropriate.
Reality
The Fed's unanimous quarter-point hike still pushed the two-year yield higher, and the dollar gained on both the yen and the Canadian dollar. Marc Chandler sees a quieter data week making politics more salient.
Reality
Polls put a 25 basis point move to 1.25% at 88% to 97%, and speculators have already flipped net long the yen. According to cryptobriefing.com, further strength now needs a BOJ surprise or a Fed cut.
Reality
The case that the yen carry trade is unwinding rests on one named asset manager's report, relayed by Bloomberg, and on a single month of price action in a currency that has already given part of it back.
Reality
The rate touched 1,334.7 on the 7th, and the pension fund bid that traders are pricing as a floor is unconfirmed talk attached to a hedge book that runs off on six- and twelve-month maturities.
Reality