Foreigners sold 1.18 trillion won of Korean shares for a seventh session as the won firmed

Calling a hike signal dovish takes some explaining. The part of Williams' remark that moved the price was the second half, that further tightening may not be necessary next year ^[3], and Yonhap described the effect as reduced expectations of rate hikes ^[7]. In our view the dollar fell because the sequence now has an end date, with this year's hike still on the table.

The day's path suggests most of the buying came after the open. The won opened at 1,344.0 and reached 1,336.0 in the afternoon ^[8], a gain of 8.0 won ^[16], then gave back 2.3 won by the close ^[17]. The close of 1,338.3 is 6.8 won stronger than the previous session's ^[2], so that session ended at 1,345.1 ^[13]. Against the earlier 10-won jump, the 6.8 won recovered is about 68% ^[15], and the quote is still about 3.2 won weaker than it was two sessions ago ^[18].

On the equity side, Yonhap put the net foreign selling at 1.18 trillion won ^[4], and converting at the 1,338.3 close gives about $882 million ^[14], close to the US$880 million Yonhap printed. If every won of it went back into dollars (an assumption, since proceeds can sit in won or be redeployed), that is one session of dollar demand set against exporters' steady dollar sales, which SE Daily tied to strong semiconductor shipments ^[10]. The sources give one session's total, not a seven-session sum, so the cumulative outflow cannot be calculated from them.

Our view is that the equity outflow outlasts the currency gain: seven sessions of selling ^[4] against a won that had already given back 2.3 won of its afternoon best by the close ^[17]. The view can fail in two places. Exporters could keep selling dollars on chip shipments whatever the Fed says ^[10], and the won would hold up on that alone. The selling could also be a reaction to the sharp KOSPI decline in the previous session ^[9] and stop on its own. We would be wrong on the won if it holds near 1,338 after a hot CPI print, and wrong on the outflow if foreigners turn net buyers within a few sessions.

Shin Hyun-song, the Bank of Korea governor, spoke at a CNN "Global Perspectives" panel in Bangkok alongside the IMF and World Bank annual meetings ^[12]. "The AI investment boom is overwhelming the negative growth impact of the war in the Middle East, but both factors are pushing prices higher," he said ^[11].