New York Fed President John Williams still backs one more rate hike this year, he told Bloomberg on Tuesday. Cointelegraph reported that he sees AI hardware supply taking over two years to catch up with demand, with rates unlikely to slow AI investment.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 18%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 57%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence68
Traders are closing bitcoin positions before a CPI print forecast at 3.6%
Bitcoin traded around $83,450 in the European morning as economists forecast US CPI inflation of 3.6%, up from 3.4%. CoinDesk reported open interest in bitcoin is down 3.5% as positions are closed ahead of the print.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Korea's won closed at 1,338.3 per dollar on Wednesday, 6.8 won stronger, after the New York Fed's John Williams said one more hike may be needed this year. Foreign investors sold a net 1.18 trillion won of shares, a seventh straight session, Yonhap reported.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence66
Seoul's KOSPI fell 0.44% to 6,008.81 on Oct. 14, its sixth straight daily loss and 14.21% below its Oct. 2 close. Yonhap tied the reversal of a morning gain to ASML, yet that session supplied only 2.7% of the 994.93 points lost.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 6%
- Operator
- Operator 10%
- Investor
- Investor 84%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
Bitcoin held between about $83,500 and $83,900 on Wednesday, under $84,000, ahead of the September US inflation report. Sources differ on whether Williams' remarks lifted the price, and targets of $85,000 and $93,000 wait on the same print.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence62
KOSPI rose more than 1% on Oct. 14 after a 5.46% one-day fall, as easing rate-hike fears lifted tech shares. That recovers about a fifth of the points lost, and the US consumer price index report was still due later that day.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence74
Federal Reserve minutes show most officials see room for one more rate increase this year after September's unanimous quarter-point hike to 3.75%-4%. Many officials called it insurance against persistent inflation and committed to no set path.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 8%
- Operator
- Operator 28%
- Investor
- Investor 64%
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives40
- Confidence70
buildOne report1 publisher 10-year Treasury yield hits 24-year high of 5.34% before easing back
US 10-year Treasury yields hit 5.34% on 1 October, their highest in 24 years, while oil traded back above $100 a barrel. Rates and oil both reversed within days, so teams planning Q4 headcount, infrastructure or fundraising should budget both as ranges.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
Bitcoin rose to $86,757 after August core PCE came in at 3.0% against 3.3% expected and October hold odds jumped to 74% from 35.8%. The year's sub-$1 billion ETF total understates the buying, because a strong third quarter first had to cover first-half redemptions.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption48
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives58
- Confidence60
Bitcoin traders add about $800 million of new futures positions before US payrolls
Bitcoin open interest rose $1.5 billion to $22.4 billion as the price climbed 3.4% past $86,000 before a US jobs report forecast at 90,000. Funding costs show the leverage plainly, but the claim that traders are leaving stablecoins rests on a market-share figure that any rally pushes down.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives35
- Confidence55
Fed Governor Lisa Cook says about $2 trillion in announced AI investment is pushing up input costs such as electricity before it delivers productivity gains. Her doubt that the Fed can still look through supply shocks links data-center spending to rates in 2027.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Bitcoin rose 0.9% to $84,376 after August core PCE came in at 3.0%, below the 3.3% economists expected. Lower odds of an October Fed hike did little for a market whose September rally ran on ETF inflows that have since faded.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 15%
- Investor
- Investor 80%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives40
- Confidence65
Bureau of Economic Analysis revisions cut July's core-services PCE inflation by 34 basis points to 3.35%, partly via new methods for three categories. August came in at the same 3.35% on the new method, so the revision lowered the level of inflation without slowing it.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 3%
- Operator
- Operator 25%
- Investor
- Investor 72%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence64
Treasury yields have held around 5% at nearly every maturity, and 53% of 173 specialists Bloomberg polled expect the 30-year to top 6% this year. Plans that assume cheaper money soon now depend on an oil shock fading faster than AI and deficit borrowing.
Perspective Coverage
8 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 6%
- Operator
- Operator 23%
- Investor
- Investor 71%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives25
- Confidence65
New York Fed President John Williams called one more rate hike this year reasonable, citing AI investment demand and energy prices with inflation at 3.4%. Sixteen of 18 Fed officials project at least one more move, so borrowers should plan on a policy range of 4% to 4.25% or higher by year-end.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence75
Thirty-year Treasury yields climb to their highest since 2004 on strong PMIs and Fed hike talk
Thirty-year Treasury yields hit their highest since 2004, a day after the 10-year's biggest one-day gain in almost 18 months took it to a 19-year high. The 2-year is still below its 2023 levels, so most of the repricing falls on long-dated, fixed-rate money.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
10-year Treasury yield hits highest since 2007 as rising business input costs fuel Fed rate-hike bets
Bond traders pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5.15% on Thursday, its highest since 2007, as oil returned to $105 a barrel. Fuel costs from the Iran war are now reaching borrowers through bets on another Fed rate hike.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
Yen rises to 155.3, within three tenths of JPMorgan's covering line, as Takata floats half-point hike
A hawkish Bank of Japan board member and talk of GPIF repatriation moved the yen 3.2% in two days, but the 16 trillion to 17 trillion yen short book JPMorgan describes has not been forced to cover anything yet.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption38
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives60
- Confidence45