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Tropical cyclones

Rotating storm systems that form over warm oceans, known regionally as hurricanes and typhoons, whose hazards include wind, storm surge and extreme rainfall.

Current stories

scienceOne report1 publisher

Simulated storms from seven climate models skew stronger near Hawai'i under high emissions

University of Hawai'i researchers project a shift toward stronger tropical cyclones near the islands in a warmer climate. The study could not say whether storm counts will rise, and El Niño and La Niña years differ less in its late-century runs.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap−10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

Heavy tropical cyclone rain is reaching 3.8 km farther inland each decade on Northern Hemisphere coasts

PolyU researchers report heavy cyclone rainfall extending inland about 3.8 km per decade along Northern Hemisphere coasts. The team ties the shift to warming nearshore seas and says planners should revisit inland flood zoning.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence65
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence60
scienceOne report1 publisher

Oxygen isotopes in one Queensland snail shell line up with cyclones Marcia and Debbie

Researchers matched oxygen isotopes in one Biggenden banded snail's shell to ex-tropical-cyclone rain across about 4.5 years of its life. It is one shell from a limestone-free park, so use at other sites is a projection.

Publishers:eos.org

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence40
scienceOne report1 publisher

Slow-moving Hurricane Simon is forecast to pass 15 km off Jalisco without landfall

Hurricane Simon, now a Category 3 storm, is forecast to pass about 15 km off Jalisco state in Mexico without making landfall. The U.S. National Hurricane Center still expects its eastern inner core to produce hurricane conditions.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap−5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence60
scienceConfirmed5 publishers

Category 4 Hurricane Simon closes on west-central Mexico with winds near 155 mph

Hurricane Simon reached Category 4 strength just off Mexico's Pacific coast on Sunday, with peak winds near 155 mph. US forecasters warned of catastrophic wind, surge and flooding across west-central Mexico near the Puerto Vallarta area.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 7%
Operator
Operator 76%
Investor
Investor 17%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence68
scienceConfirmed3 publishers

Tropical Storm Rachel's swell floods Southern California's coast ahead of a rare landfall

Tropical Storm Rachel is due ashore near the California-Mexico border early Sunday under only the second tropical storm watch ever issued in California. Its swell is already damaging homes and flooding streets along the coast, days before the center arrives.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 19%
Operator
Operator 58%
Investor
Investor 23%

Reality

Evidence72
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence68
scienceOne report1 publisher

Indonesia's fires quadruple in area as a record El Niño takes hold

Indonesia's fires grew roughly fourfold after June as the strongest El Niño on record began forming, with emissions on track to match 2015. The event is still strengthening on 1.4C of warming, and the year's outlook leans on a short record of past El Niños.

Publishers:newscientist.com

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+15
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence40
scienceConfirmed5 publishers

Hawaii's 550-year-old Hōlei Sea Arch has collapsed into the Pacific Ocean

Hawaii's 90-foot Hōlei Sea Arch, formed about 550 years ago, fell into the Pacific between 23 and 27 September, the National Park Service says. No one knows the exact moment, so the case against Tropical Storm Nolo rests on timing.

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 18%
Operator
Operator 67%
Investor
Investor 15%

Reality

Evidence80
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence80
scienceOne report1 publisher

El Niño's wind shear kept the Atlantic hurricane-free through September for the first time on record

El Niño kept the Atlantic free of hurricanes through September for the first time in reliable records by holding wind shear high over warm water. The mark could still fall if the National Hurricane Center upgrades Tropical Storm Fay in its post-season review.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence55
scienceOne report1 publisher

Twenty named storms by Sept. 28 put the northeastern Pacific well above its 30-year average

NASA counts 20 named storms and nine hurricanes in the northeastern and central Pacific by Sept. 28, against 1991-2020 averages of 13.5 and 7.4. Colorado State data put storm energy at more than double the norm, so the season is running stronger as well as busier.

Publishers:nasa.gov

Reality

Evidence62
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence60
scienceConfirmed3 publishers

Lala never made landfall, and the category was the least useful number in the file

A Category 1 peak, 30 to 35 inches of projected rain, and warnings across all eight major Hawaiian islands. The wind rating described almost none of the actual exposure.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 22%
Operator
Operator 67%
Investor
Investor 11%

Reality

Evidence70
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap−30
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence65
scienceOne report1 publisher

One 2008 cyclone killed more than twice as many people as 675 other storms combined

King's College London researchers counted deaths from every recorded tropical cyclone and extreme heat event since 2000. The toll sits in a handful of outliers, and they argue the scenarios used in risk assessment are not built to find events without precedent.

Publishers:phys.org

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives60
Confidence45