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Science Reports disagree5 publishers 2 min read Published Updated

Hawaii's 550-year-old Hōlei Sea Arch has collapsed into the Pacific Ocean

Hawaii's 90-foot Hōlei Sea Arch, formed about 550 years ago, fell into the Pacific between 23 and 27 September, the National Park Service says. No one knows the exact moment, so the case against Tropical Storm Nolo rests on timing.

The Scientist · Science desk

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What happened

  • New cracks and instability in the cliffs led the park to close the original viewing area in January 2020, and a viewing area at a safer distance opened in March 2020.
  • Surf from an earlier tropical storm, named by PopSci as Darby, broke a chunk of rock off the lower part of the arch.
  • PopSci reports that Nolo brought more than a foot of rain to some places on the Big Island.

Why it matters

  • What it limits constraint Because nobody recorded when it failed, the collapse cannot be used to estimate how much storm loading the damaged cliffs can take before the next section fails.
  • What it sets up precedent In 2020 the park responded to cracking cliffs by moving visitors to a safer distance, and it would probably do the same if the coastline beside the old arch keeps failing.
  • What it costs cost Visitors to the end of Chain of Craters Road lose a popular, heavily photographed destination on a stretch of coast that has been closed and rerouted before.

Four days passed between the last confirmed sighting of the arch and the first confirmed absence [18]. Nolo is the suspect because it passed through that window. According to the BBC, the arch is believed to have fallen while the park was temporarily closed for the storm [4]. PopSci, citing the park, says only that it may have [10].

The two outlets also label the storm differently. The BBC calls it Tropical Storm Nolo [4], while PopSci describes a hurricane that reached Category 3 but did not strike the islands at that strength [20]. Neither report includes wave heights at Hōlei during the storm. Waves are what made the arch in the first place: it formed about 550 years ago as Pacific surf pounded into an ancient lava flow [3].

Park service material cited by PopSci attributes the lifespan of these cliffs to differential erosion, in which softer rock wears away faster than stronger rock [17]. I'd read Nolo and the 2018 earthquake damage as late steps in that one process. PopSci's own summary is that five centuries of waves and earthquakes caught up with Hōlei [12]. The thing this record doesn't tell you is how to divide the blame. A collapse during a storm, on cliffs already damaged, fits the storm as the final trigger. It does not show that a calm week would have spared the arch for long, or that the arch would have outlasted Nolo without the earlier damage.

The park predicted the outcome back in 2021, though without a date. "This formation is beautiful, but temporary, and has a limited life span," the park service said that year. "The sea arch will eventually crumble into the sea. However, others will replace it as the cliff slowly migrates inland." [11] In its statement on the collapse, it said: "The coastline flanking the sea arch has shown signs of instability for years." [9] PopSci notes that replacement arches will take some time [15].

Hōlei is named for a small endemic plant in the milkweed family [19]. "Hōlei Sea Arch is a very special place to so many of our visitors!" Hawaii Volcanoes National Park wrote on Facebook, asking people to post their photos [16].

What to watch

  • A park survey, imagery or footage that pins the collapse to a specific day inside the 23 to 27 September window, the direct test of the Nolo link.
  • Any change to the viewing area at the end of Chain of Craters Road if the park finds new cracking in the cliffs that flanked the arch.

Clarity's read

What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.

Reality

Evidence80
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+5
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence80

Perspective Coverage

5 publishers
Builder
Builder 18%
Operator
Operator 67%
Investor
Investor 15%
Why these scores

Claim ledger

Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.

  1. [1]

    The exact time of the Hōlei Sea Arch's collapse is not known.

    Reported Supported Source: BBCView cited source
  2. [2]

    The arch was still projecting into the water from the coast of Volcanoes National Park on 23 September but was gone by 27 September, the National Park Service said.

    Reported Supported Source: National Park Service, via BBCView cited source
  3. [3]

    The 90-foot-tall lava rock formation at the end of Chain of Craters Road formed about 550 years ago as Pacific Ocean waves pounded into an ancient lava flow.

    Reported Supported Source: PopSciView cited source
  4. [4]

    The arch is believed to have fallen when the park was temporarily closed during Tropical Storm Nolo.

    Reported Supported Source: BBCView cited source
  5. [5]

    The park service said earthquakes during the 2018 Kīlauea volcano eruption and summit collapse had damaged the cliffs near the arch.

    Reported Supported Source: National Park Service, via BBCView cited source
  6. [6]

    In January 2020 the viewing area was closed when cracks and instability worried officials; a safer viewing area opened in March 2020.

    Reported Supported Source: PopSciView cited source
  7. [7]

    During Tropical Storm Darby, a massive surf broke off a chunk of rock from the lower part of the arch.

    Reported Supported Source: PopSciView cited source
  8. [8]

    Hawaii's Hōlei Sea Arch, a 90-foot-tall (27.4m) lava rock structure that formed about 550 years ago, has collapsed into the Pacific Ocean.

    Reported Supported Source: BBCView cited source
  9. [9]

    "The coastline flanking the sea arch has shown signs of instability for years," the National Park Service said in a statement.

    Reported Supported Source: National Park Service statement, via BBCView cited source
  10. [10]

    According to Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, the fall may have happened while the park was temporarily closed due to Tropical Storm Nolo.

    Reported Supported Source: Hawaii Volcanoes National Park, via PopSciView cited source
  11. [11]

    In 2021 the NPS warned the arch would eventually crumble, saying: "This formation is beautiful, but temporary, and has a limited life span," and "The sea arch will eventually crumble into the sea. However, others will replace it as the cliff slowly migrates inland."

    Reported Supported Source: National Park Service, 2021, via BBCView cited source
  12. [12]

    Over five centuries of waves and earthquakes caught up with Hōlei.

    Reported Supported Source: PopSciView cited source
  13. [13]

    Nolo brought over a foot of rain to some places on the Big Island and may have led to the arch's collapse.

    Reported Supported Source: PopSciView cited source
  14. [14]

    Located at the end of Chain of Craters Road on the island of Hawaii, the arch was a popular and heavily photographed tourist destination.

    Reported Supported Source: BBCView cited source
  15. [15]

    Other sea arches will replace this one as the cliff migrates inland, but it will take some time.

    Reported Supported Source: PopSciView cited source
  16. [16]

    "Hōlei Sea Arch is a very special place to so many of our visitors! Please share your favorite Hōlei photos in the comments," Hawaii Volcanoes National Park wrote on Facebook.

    Reported Supported Source: Hawaii Volcanoes National Park Facebook post, via PopSciView cited source
  17. [17]

    According to the National Park Service, the cliff's lifespan was determined by differential erosion, in which softer rock is worn away faster than stronger rock.

    Reported Supported Source: National Park Service, via PopSciView cited source
  18. [18]

    The collapse can be bracketed only to a four-day window.

    Derived Supported
  19. [19]

    Hōlei Sea Arch is named after hōlei, a small endemic plant in the milkweed family.

    Reported Supported Source: PopSciView cited source
  20. [20]

    In September, Nolo reached Category 3 hurricane strength but did not directly hit the islands at that strength.

    Reported Contested Source: PopSciView cited source

Sources

5 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.

  1. bbc.co.uk

    1 article · October 2, 2026

    Hawaii's iconic 550-year-old Hōlei Sea Arch collapses
  2. dexerto.com

    1 article · October 3, 2026

    Hawaii’s 550-year-old Hōlei Sea Arch collapses into ocean
  3. en.sedaily.com

    1 article · October 2, 2026

    'Rest in Peace': Hawaii's 27-Meter Sea Arch Collapses After 550 Years
  4. mezha.net

    1 article · October 4, 2026

    На Гаваях обвалилася 550-річна морська арка Голей
  5. popsci.com

    1 article · October 2, 2026

    Hawaii’s 550-year-old Hōlei Sea Arch collapses into the ocean

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