Fairshake's affiliate Defend American Jobs has reported $46.7 million in Ohio Senate spending, 55.6% above its $30 million pledge. Added to $5.9 million from the Winklevoss-backed Digital Freedom Fund, the total is $52.6 million.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives58
- Confidence74
Binance US is seeking up to $100 million at about a $1 billion valuation, Bloomberg reported, against $4.5 billion pre-money in 2022. None of the three accounts says whether the $1 billion is pre- or post-money, so the markdown is approximate.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 15%
- Operator
- Operator 34%
- Investor
- Investor 51%
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Clarity Act's Senate stall hands US crypto rulemaking to the SEC and CFTC
With the Clarity Act stalled in the Senate, the SEC and CFTC are writing US crypto rules, but only one of their three measures since September 17 is in force. Executives expect faster deals from that route while lawyers warn its rules stay open to political and legal reversal.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
A September 17 order lets qualifying platforms trade fully backed tokenized NMS stocks without registering as exchanges or dealers. Every stock takes 30 days of notice to an issuer that is free to refuse it.
Perspective Coverage
14 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 25%
- Operator
- Operator 40%
- Investor
- Investor 35%
Reality
- Evidence80
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives60
- Confidence70
Two days after the Senate stalled the CLARITY Act, the CFTC's Market Participants Division opened Phantom's March no-action position to any software provider that stays clear of custody and order routing, on ten conditions.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 42%
- Operator
- Operator 29%
- Investor
- Investor 29%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence74
Crypto's stalled CLARITY Act waits on a Senate that traders give Democrats over 60% odds of winning
Polymarket and Kalshi give Democrats a 61% to 62% chance of winning both chambers of Congress on Nov. 3. For crypto firms, the result decides whether the stalled CLARITY Act comes back on its current terms or is reworked by a new majority.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence50
Trump asked Congress again for the CLARITY Act. A mid-September cloture vote, a crowded Senate calendar and an unresolved ethics fight say the clarity is not arriving this year.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 30%
- Operator
- Operator 36%
- Investor
- Investor 34%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives72
- Confidence64
Kalshi and its investor Paradigm sat with Coinbase, Ripple and Chainlink at the White House, one day before the CFTC's new advisory committee met. The seating chart is the substance.
Perspective Coverage
9 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 19%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 43%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
Coinbase opened a CFTC-regulated route for US institutions into Deribit, the $2.9 billion exchange it bought, with Prime options trading due within weeks. Desks that kept offshore entities to reach that market can now use a domestic broker instead.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 14%
- Operator
- Operator 49%
- Investor
- Investor 37%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence62
Bitwise's Matt Hougan says the Senate's 49-50 cloture failure will not end the crypto rally, and points to a summer in which prices rose as the odds of passage halved. Only Congress can give the CFTC spot authority.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 13%
- Investor
- Investor 80%
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives60
- Confidence55
A White House remark about CFTC Chairman Michael Selig repriced HYPE and a Nasdaq treasury stock. No approval, no registration path and no timeline has been put on the record.
Perspective Coverage
7 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 13%
- Operator
- Operator 36%
- Investor
- Investor 51%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+55
- Incentives68
- Confidence60
New SEC rule lets one commissioner alone constitute a quorum when all others are disqualified from a matter
Either Paul Atkins or Mark Uyeda can now act alone as the SEC's quorum under a rule effective Oct. 2, but only on matters where the other is disqualified. Decisions on the pending crypto custody and offering proposals therefore sit with a Commission of two people.
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
FinCEN withdrew its proposal to make about 15,000 institutions report foreign crypto mixer transactions, work it estimated at 1.47 million hours a year. Banks keep their general duty to report suspicious activity, so mixer exposure stays a monitoring job without its own form.
Perspective Coverage
10 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 25%
- Operator
- Operator 48%
- Investor
- Investor 27%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives60
- Confidence68
OpenPayd, a London payments firm with $73 million of revenue, expects its Titan merger to close by year-end and fund a US launch by April 2027. With 43 state licenses already bought, the listing mainly supplies cash and shares for the acquisitions its CEO says come next.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 17%
- Operator
- Operator 32%
- Investor
- Investor 51%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives72
- Confidence60
SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, head of the agency's Crypto Task Force, resigns Oct. 2, leaving Paul Atkins and Mark Uyeda as its only two commissioners. Neither her seat nor Caroline Crenshaw's has a nominee, so crypto policy now rests on two Republican votes.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 23%
- Operator
- Operator 45%
- Investor
- Investor 32%
Reality
- Evidence76
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence74
Citigroup lifted its 12-month Bitcoin target to $113,000 from $82,000 on a forecast of $5 billion in crypto inflows over the next year. A single month like June, when $4.51 billion left spot Bitcoin ETFs, would nearly cancel that forecast.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 7%
- Operator
- Operator 28%
- Investor
- Investor 65%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Aztec Labs is bringing back zk.money as a private DAI wallet that caps every transfer at $2,500 and all users' deposits combined at $50,000 a day. Raising either limit means a new contract that each user must opt into. The caps arrive while US law on privacy wallets remains unsettled.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence62
SEC staff said on September 25 that token buybacks on functioning networks and staking receipts that only record ownership do not create investment contracts. Because they are staff views, live networks can plan repurchases around them while a future SEC or a private plaintiff could still contest them.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives50
- Confidence70
CFTC staff cleared registered firms on September 24 to invest customer funds in tokenized forms of permitted investments and to keep their books on a blockchain. The update came days after the Senate stalled the CLARITY Act, but it only changes the form assets take and leaves the CFTC-SEC split to Congress.
Reality
- Evidence74
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
Arc's mainnet went live Wednesday with BlackRock, DTCC, Visa and Mastercard among its founding validators, and the 10 billion ARC tokens Circle minted this week sit behind a presale that valued the network at $3 billion.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 38%
- Operator
- Operator 34%
- Investor
- Investor 28%
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives78
- Confidence64