Patrick Witt has left the White House crypto council after his Defense Department detail expired, and no replacement has been named. The CLARITY Act he worked on now waits for a lame duck with 22 Senate session days, none set aside for crypto.
Perspective Coverage
8 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 14%
- Operator
- Operator 39%
- Investor
- Investor 47%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence74
TD Cowen sees a realistic risk that the CFTC's leveraged crypto rules unravel before the 2028 election
TD Cowen's Jaret Seiberg says the CFTC's leveraged retail crypto rules may not be final until early 2028, colliding with the election cycle. A new administration could revise or drop them, and a rushed schedule invites a procedural court challenge.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence50
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana ETFs shed $1.248B in the week to Oct 9, SoSoValue data reported by Cryptopolitan show. XRP funds drew $11.31M, under 1% of that, and relative to fund size the selling sits mostly in Ethereum.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
CFTC proposed two crypto leverage rules under existing law on October 5, 20 days after the CLARITY Act stalled 49-50 in the Senate. Until Congress acts, what counts as compliant for leveraged retail crypto will be set by CFTC rulemaking.
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence64
Fairshake's affiliates reported $2.7 million in House spending after the Senate blocked the CLARITY Act in September. The money goes to House races while the bill sits in the Senate, so the clear rules institutional investors are waiting for have not arrived.
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence62
Pham says the CFTC can regulate crypto without new laws, citing a statute that excludes onions
Former CFTC acting chair Caroline Pham says the Commodity Exchange Act already gives the agency extensive crypto authority after its October 5 proposal. The CLARITY Act failed to advance in September, so regulators are left with existing powers while lawmakers weigh more legislation.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
America's Credit Unions presses for bank-equal stablecoin rights ahead of the lame-duck session
America's Credit Unions used an October 11 policy session to press for bank-equal digital asset rights before the lame-duck Congress. Its warning that yield-paying stablecoins could pull member deposits is a forecast, and the one fixed date in the record is the NCUA's December 8 comment deadline.
Reality
- Evidence40
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap
- Not scored
- Incentives65
- Confidence45
Clarity Act's Senate stall hands US crypto rulemaking to the SEC and CFTC
With the Clarity Act stalled in the Senate, the SEC and CFTC are writing US crypto rules, but only one of their three measures since September 17 is in force. Executives expect faster deals from that route while lawyers warn its rules stay open to political and legal reversal.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
A September 17 order lets qualifying platforms trade fully backed tokenized NMS stocks without registering as exchanges or dealers. Every stock takes 30 days of notice to an issuer that is free to refuse it.
Perspective Coverage
14 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 25%
- Operator
- Operator 40%
- Investor
- Investor 35%
Reality
- Evidence80
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives60
- Confidence70
Two days after the Senate stalled the CLARITY Act, the CFTC's Market Participants Division opened Phantom's March no-action position to any software provider that stays clear of custody and order routing, on ten conditions.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 42%
- Operator
- Operator 29%
- Investor
- Investor 29%
Reality
- Evidence78
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence74
Crypto's stalled CLARITY Act waits on a Senate that traders give Democrats over 60% odds of winning
Polymarket and Kalshi give Democrats a 61% to 62% chance of winning both chambers of Congress on Nov. 3. For crypto firms, the result decides whether the stalled CLARITY Act comes back on its current terms or is reworked by a new majority.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives40
- Confidence50
A House committee handed crypto users a break on fees of $10 or less and paid for it by importing the anti-abuse rules that govern stocks, and the traders who harvest losses in December are the ones paying.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 11%
- Operator
- Operator 41%
- Investor
- Investor 48%
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence65
Trump asked Congress again for the CLARITY Act. A mid-September cloture vote, a crowded Senate calendar and an unresolved ethics fight say the clarity is not arriving this year.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 30%
- Operator
- Operator 36%
- Investor
- Investor 34%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives72
- Confidence64
Citrini Research skips Bitcoin in a crypto basket built on AI agents moving money
Citrini Research's latest crypto basket leaves out Bitcoin and backs the blockchain infrastructure that AI agents could use to move money. Citrini expects those agents to pull deposits from banks paying uncompetitive rates, and the basket is built to collect that flow.
Reality
- Evidence25
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives70
- Confidence30
Andrew Cuomo urged the crypto industry to fund both parties, saying the CLARITY Act stalled in the Senate cannot pass without Democrats. Crypto PACs have spent $54.3 million backing Republicans and $26.2 million backing Democrats, Cointelegraph reported, while Kalshi gives Democrats about a 61% chance of winning both chambers.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives70
- Confidence62
Fairshake backs 32 House incumbents after the CLARITY Act falls 11 votes short of Senate cloture
Fairshake is backing 32 House incumbents who voted for the CLARITY Act after a 49-50 Senate cloture vote left the bill 11 short of the 60 it needed. The money defends votes already cast in a House that passed the bill in July 2025, while the Senate path still needs Democrats.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap0
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
SEC estimates its proposed crypto self-custody fallback will cost each adviser that uses it $433,833 a year, and assumes about 823 firms will. After the CLARITY Act's Senate failure, that price helps decide which advisers can hold newly launched tokens for clients.
Perspective Coverage
15 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 21%
- Operator
- Operator 45%
- Investor
- Investor 34%
Reality
- Evidence76
- Adoption8
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives62
- Confidence70
French Hill, the House Financial Services chair, says SEC and CFTC crypto rules fall short of the CLARITY Act the Senate blocked 49-50 last month. His case is that a later administration can rewrite rules issued under existing agency authority, while a statute would hold.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 20%
- Operator
- Operator 43%
- Investor
- Investor 37%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives62
- Confidence70
CLARITY's newest 14 pages hand the DeFi coverage test to the SEC and CFTC
The bill grew again last week, and the new pages delegate the hard definition to regulators while the ethics language Democrats made their price stayed out. Trump has not said what curbs he will accept.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
Democrats spend Sunday deciding whether 100 edits are enough to move CLARITY on Monday
Two days before a procedural vote that decides only whether the Senate proceeds at all, the open items on the CLARITY Act are ethics limits on officials' crypto income and how stablecoin yield gets regulated.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence30
Earlier coverage
- Sell-side unanimity on Wednesday's hike hides a 50-basis-point split over December
Invest · September 15, 2026 · Confirmed12 publishers
- Bitcoin gained 38% while CLARITY's odds of passing fell from 39% to 18%
Invest · September 20, 2026 · Confirmed3 publishers
- Crypto's rulebook moves to the agencies after the Senate falls 11 short
Invest · September 19, 2026 · Confirmed7 publishers
- Retiring senators Lummis and Tillis leave crypto's Clarity Act to the next Congress
Invest · October 3, 2026 · Confirmed17 publishers
- Senate's Clarity Act rewrite hands the Treasury secretary a switch on stablecoin rewards
Invest · September 14, 2026 · Confirmed11 publishers
- HYPE up 17% on a sentence: Trump says the CFTC wants Hyperliquid onshore, and nothing else
Invest · August 20, 2026 · Confirmed7 publishers
- SEC, CFTC and Fed moved on crypto within 48 hours of the Clarity Act's Senate defeat
Invest · September 26, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- CFTC proposes a narrower crypto exchange license built on its power over leveraged trades
Invest · October 5, 2026 · Confirmed14 publishers
- Robinhood Chain's memecoin pairs shed 96% of a $443 million-a-day trade
Invest · October 6, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- Fairshake puts $1 million apiece behind six House incumbents expected to keep their seats
Invest · October 5, 2026 · Confirmed6 publishers
- Better Markets says the CFTC lacks the investor-protection mandate to police retail crypto leverage
Invest · October 5, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- CFTC's crypto leverage notice ties delivery to who holds the private keys
Science · October 5, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- The CFTC's crypto prerule needs 120 days of comment before it binds an exchange
Invest · September 19, 2026 · Confirmed6 publishers
- Missing October 15 costs extended crypto filers 5% of unpaid tax a month
Invest · October 4, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- $TRUMP memecoin ties seats at its third Trump dinner to 43 days of holding a token down 97%
Invest · October 2, 2026 · Confirmed5 publishers
- Hester Peirce's Oct. 2 exit leaves two Republicans running the SEC
Invest · September 26, 2026 · Confirmed6 publishers
- Citi ties its $113,000 Bitcoin target to $5 billion of slow adviser and brokerage inflows
Invest · October 1, 2026 · Confirmed4 publishers
- Aztec brings zk.money back as a private stablecoin wallet capped at $2,500 a transfer
Product · September 29, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- Stand With Crypto answers the 49-50 Clarity Act defeat with three Senate endorsements
Invest · September 30, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- Bitcoin ETFs' $3.1 billion nine-day streak turned their year's net flows positive
Invest · September 30, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- ETF buyers carried bitcoin to a 6% gain in a month the dollar rose nearly 2%
Invest · September 30, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- Bitcoin's two-week range pits $3 billion of ETF buying against the highest Treasury yields since 2007
Invest · September 30, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- Hester Peirce's exit shrinks the SEC and CFTC to three commissioners across ten seats
Invest · September 29, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs' $2.4 billion week caps a $6.7 billion climb since mid-July
Invest · September 28, 2026 · Confirmed3 publishers
- CFTC says Cash FX traded less than 1% of the $950 million it raised
Invest · September 27, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- CFTC staff let registrants invest customer funds in tokens that carry the original asset's rights
Invest · September 27, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers
- With CLARITY stalled, crypto market structure shifts to a White House table and a one-man CFTC
Invest · August 16, 2026 · Confirmed3 publishers