IEA members agreed Thursday to speed up the last 100 million barrels of their emergency release, including more than 20 million of diesel. US retail diesel was $6.32 a gallon that day, more than 70% above a year earlier, according to AAA.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 0%
- Operator
- Operator 35%
- Investor
- Investor 65%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives55
- Confidence74
South Korea held its gasoline price cap at 1,784 won a liter for a fourth straight period, with Brent at $105.90. Industry estimates put refiners' losses at 7 trillion to 8 trillion won, above the 5.6497 trillion won budgeted.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 4%
- Operator
- Operator 59%
- Investor
- Investor 37%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence68
Nickel from Sulawesi mines tied to rainforest loss may reach VW, Ford and Tesla batteries
Nickel from two Sulawesi mines linked to primary-rainforest loss may be in VW, Ford and Tesla batteries, the Guardian reported. Filings do not give the sales volumes that would tie ore to a specific car. For automakers, the near-term exposure is disclosure.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Hitachi Energy's chief says data centres now reach 2 GW, against 20-30 MW years ago
Hitachi Energy CEO Andreas Schierenbeck says data centres have grown from 20-30 MW to about 2 GW as the IEA sees their power use roughly doubling by 2030. He told CNA that inadequate grid infrastructure is the first obstacle to meeting that demand.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence60
Chevron's chief executive says the oil buffers that absorbed the Iran war are drained
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth says the inventories and emergency reserves that absorbed the Iran war shock are drained. The IEA expects diesel to stay tight well into 2027, so a budget that assumes early relief runs against both.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia reached Aramco headquarters and drew little U.S. military response
A missile strike hit part of Saudi Aramco's headquarters, following Houthi attacks on Riyadh airport that killed at least 20, Fortune reported. Analysts it quotes say Washington has answered with words while the Nov. 3 midterms and gasoline prices weigh on any decision to strike back.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence45
IEA expects the diesel shortage to last into 2027 despite sanctions relief and stockpile releases
International Energy Agency says the global diesel shortage will stretch into 2027 despite planned sanctions easing and stockpile releases. Heavy diesel users face high costs into next year while refiners expect record profits.
Reality
- Evidence58
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
Diesel futures climb 5% to a multi-week high two days after Trump's Russian supply deal
US diesel futures rose 5% by midday Tuesday to their highest level in weeks, NBC News reported. In our view, fuel and freight budgets for this quarter should assume higher costs, because the administration's relief measures have not held prices down so far.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence58
Brent crude traded near $105 a barrel as Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia met a temporary US waiver on Russian diesel. Goldman Sachs estimates the Gulf risk premium at just over $20 a barrel.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 3%
- Operator
- Operator 41%
- Investor
- Investor 56%
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives40
- Confidence66
IMF says the emergency oil stocks that helped contain the US-Iran war's price shock are now depleted. Governments with high debt and deficits have little capacity to shield consumers from another jump, the fund warned.
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−10
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence70
Brent crude fell 11 cents to $104.61 a barrel on Monday as Trump announced Russian diesel supply and an energy ceasefire that Russia has not commented on. The diesel is small against global demand and the truce is unverified, so the relief looks shallow.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives50
- Confidence62
IEA members speed up the 400 million-barrel oil release with public stocks near 1.1 billion
IEA members agreed Oct. 7 to speed up the 400 million-barrel oil release and put diesel first, with public stocks near 1.1 billion barrels. Those stocks were above 1.2 billion in March, a fall of about 100 million, a quarter of the pledge.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption45
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence60
Posco Future M and L&F sign 8.9 trillion won of LFP cathode supply deals with Samsung SDI and SK On
Posco Future M and L&F have signed about 8.9 trillion won of LFP cathode deals with Samsung SDI and SK On. China makes over 98% of LFP cathode. Of the deals, 8.7 trillion won start in 2027, and Korean costs are untested.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption25
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Portsmouth's new shore power may not deliver the savings ship operators expect as UK electricity prices bite
Portsmouth International Port has launched the UK's first high-voltage shore power system serving several berths at once. Ships that plug in can pay more than running their own generators, since UK power is expensive and grid charges are rising, Interesting Engineering reported.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption20
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence40
Brent crude rose 3.7% to $103.91 a barrel on Thursday as data showed Iran stepping up tanker attacks in Hormuz and reports of new US strikes spread. With the 10-year Treasury at 5.32%, the oil move hit equities as inflation risk and European indexes opened 0.64% to 1.06% lower.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
Brent crude settled at $104.28 a barrel on Oct. 8, up 4%, after Axios reported the Pentagon had ordered preparations for renewed strikes on Iran. Trump said the same day he would not attack before the Nov. 3 midterms, a promise that stops at the vote while energy and freight budgets run well past it.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 28%
- Investor
- Investor 67%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives72
- Confidence64
Modat and NCSC-NL find 8,547 wind and solar control systems reachable from the internet
Modat and the Dutch cyber agency NCSC-NL found 8,547 internet-facing wind and solar control systems in 35 countries that were never meant to be online. One turbine page offers Start, Stop and Reset to anyone with a browser.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives40
- Confidence55
Brent rose to $101.80 on Wednesday after a Gulf storm curtailed 185,120 barrels a day of US offshore crude and Houthi strikes damaged two Saudi airports. That loss is small beside Middle East shut-ins, so the bigger fourth-quarter cost risk runs through Gulf refineries into diesel.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 33%
- Investor
- Investor 62%
Reality
- Evidence66
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap−15
- Incentives45
- Confidence60
BIS paper warns AI data centres' power demand could blur central banks' inflation readings
BIS Paper No. 174 argues data-centre power demand could blur the capacity-use and inflation readings central banks set interest rates by. A central bank that mistakes a data-centre power bill for overheating could tighten when the economy does not need it.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence35
Shell forecast a refining margin of $42 a barrel for July to September, almost double the $24 of the prior quarter and above 2022's high of about $28. The gain came from fuel prices outrunning crude, so diesel buyers now carry refinery risk on top of oil risk.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives55
- Confidence68