Gasoil falls 3% on Russian diesel pledge while Brent barely moves
Brent crude fell 11 cents to $104.61 a barrel on Monday as Trump announced Russian diesel supply and an energy ceasefire that Russia has not commented on. The diesel is small against global demand and the truce is unverified, so the relief looks shallow.
The Investor · Invest desk
Gasoil futures at $1,436 per metric ton after a 3 per cent fall. Brent crude at $104.61 a barrel, down 0.11 per cent. Trump's promised first Russian diesel tranche of 2.25 million barrels is about 7.8 per cent of the close to 29 million barrels the world uses each day, per the IEA.
- $1,436 per metric ton ICE gasoil futures, claim 7 down 3 per cent
- $104.61 a barrel Brent crude futures, claim 4 down 0.11 per cent
- 2.25 million barrels Promised first Russian diesel lot, claim 1 more than 300,000 metric tons, per Trump
- 29 million barrels Global diesel use per day (IEA), claim 8 forecast, close to
- 7.8% of a day's use First lot vs one day's diesel use, claim 22 about
| Figure | Value | Note | Claim |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICE gasoil futures | $1,436 per metric ton | down 3 per cent | 7 |
| Brent crude futures | $104.61 a barrel | down 0.11 per cent | 4 |
| Promised first Russian diesel lot | 2.25 million barrels | more than 300,000 metric tons, per Trump | 1 |
| Global diesel use per day (IEA) | 29 million barrels | forecast, close to | 8 |
| First lot vs one day's diesel use | 7.8% of a day's use | about | 22 |
What happened
- He added that Russia would send another 500,000 tons in November and a further 1 million tons "immediately thereafter".
- Trump announced an energy ceasefire on Sunday; Zelenskiy said he was still waiting to see details, and Russia did not comment.
- The Houthis claimed Saturday's attack on Riyadh's international airport, in which 13 people died and more than 300 were hurt.
- Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $85, in a note led by analyst Daan Struyven.
Why it matters
- Who has to decide decision Governments holding diesel stocks are not being told to wait for Russian cargoes: Birol said all IEA members should assess further diesel releases and that laggards should speed up pledged ones.
- Who's exposed exposure The 3 per cent gasoil drop to $1,436 rests on a schedule Trump announced; if the first 300,000 tons do not load, the move has nothing under it.
- What it limits constraint The Middle East conflict is what kept Brent above $100, so news about Russian barrels has limited room to pull crude lower.
Next story · Invest · 3d ago
ICE gasoil futures fell 4.3% to $1,419.5 a ton after Trump said Russia would supply dieselConfirmed3 publishers
Brent's fall was small and getting smaller. Futures gave up 11 cents, or 0.11 per cent, to $104.61 by 0627 GMT [4], after both benchmarks had been down more than 1 per cent earlier in the session [6]. Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, said the announcements eased some of the immediate supply pressure [9]. He then put a limit on it. "Questions remain over the validity and longevity of any such ceasefire, and without clearer evidence that it will actually hold, the extent of the pullback is likely to stay limited," Waterer said [10].
The diesel is where the tonnage is, and the tonnage is modest. According to Trump, Russia will send 300,000 tons now, 500,000 in November and 1 million after that [1][2], a total of at least 1.8 million tons [18]. The first tranche works out at 7.5 barrels a ton [19], so the full schedule is about 13.5 million barrels [20]. The IEA forecasts global diesel consumption at close to 29 million barrels a day [8]. The schedule is therefore about 0.47 of one day's demand [21], and the first tranche about 7.8 per cent of one day's [22]. Gasoil futures still fell 3 per cent to $1,436 a ton [7], about 27 times Brent's percentage move [24].
We think the gasoil move is roughly the right size for the diesel, and the Brent move is roughly the right size for a ceasefire nobody has verified. Crude has a different problem. Goldman Sachs estimates a risk premium of just over $20 a barrel [16], and Brent at $104.61 sits $14.61 above its $90 December forecast [23]. Its analysts wrote: "We maintain our base case that continued adaptation of Mideast supply will eventually reduce crude oil prices, while potential renewed escalation still poses significant net upside risk" [15]. Russian diesel and a Kyiv-Moscow truce touch neither the Riyadh airport strikes [12] nor the tanker attacks near Hormuz and Oman [13], so we would not expect them to close that gap.
The view can fail in more than one direction. Moscow and Kyiv could confirm the ceasefire and the November cargoes could load on schedule, in which case gasoil's fall is the start of a longer one. The ceasefire could collapse, and the supply pressure Waterer described would come back [9]. And we are wrong if Brent falls below $100 while the Gulf attacks continue, because the premium would then be smaller than Goldman's estimate.
What to watch
- Whether Moscow or Kyiv confirms the energy ceasefire and publishes its terms; so far Zelenskiy has only said he is waiting for details and Russia has not commented.
- Whether the first 300,000 tons of Russian diesel actually ship and ICE gasoil holds near $1,436 a ton.
- Whether tanker attacks near Hormuz and Oman and the Houthi strikes on Riyadh continue, since Goldman sees renewed escalation as the main upside risk to Brent.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives50
- Confidence62
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
President Trump said on Friday that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons (2.25 million barrels) of diesel to US and global markets.
- [2]
Trump added that Russia would supply another 500,000 tons in November and a further 1 million tons "immediately thereafter".
- [3]
Trump unexpectedly announced on Sunday that Ukraine and Russia had agreed to halt attacks on each other's energy facilities, but Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was still waiting to see details of the energy ceasefire while Russia did not comment.
- [4]
Brent crude futures fell 11 cents, or 0.11 per cent, to $104.61 a barrel by 0627 GMT on Monday, Oct 12.
- [5]
US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $91.36 a barrel, down 49 cents, or 0.53 per cent.
- [6]
Both Brent and WTI were down more than 1 per cent earlier in the session.
- [7]
ICE gasoil futures fell 3 per cent to $1,436 per metric ton.
- [8]
Global daily diesel consumption is forecast at close to 29 million barrels, according to the International Energy Agency.
- [9]
The announcements eased some of the immediate supply pressure, Tim Waterer, KCM Trade chief analyst, said.
- [10]
"Questions remain over the validity and longevity of any such ceasefire, and without clearer evidence that it will actually hold, the extent of the pullback is likely to stay limited," Waterer said.
- [11]
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Sunday that all members should assess whether additional diesel releases are necessary, and that countries which have not yet fully delivered pledged volumes should accelerate their remaining releases, prioritising diesel.
- [12]
The Houthis claimed responsibility for a Saturday strike on Riyadh's international airport that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300.
- [13]
More attacks on tankers sailing through the Strait of Hormuz have been reported so far this month; a tanker was struck by a drone near Sohar anchorage, Oman, and another was damaged by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz, the UK Maritime Trade Operations reported.
- [14]
Goldman Sachs raised its Brent crude price forecast for December to $90 a barrel, up from $85 previously, in a note by analysts led by Daan Struyven.
- [15]
Goldman analysts wrote: "We maintain our base case that continued adaptation of Mideast supply will eventually reduce crude oil prices, while potential renewed escalation still poses significant net upside risk".
- [16]
Goldman Sachs analysts estimated a risk premium of just over $20 a barrel.
- [17]
The Middle East conflict continued to support Brent crude at above $100 a barrel.
- [18]
Trump's stated diesel schedule totals at least 1.8 million metric tons.
- [19]
The first tranche implies about 7.5 barrels per metric ton of diesel.
- [20]
The full schedule is about 13.5 million barrels.
- [21]
The full schedule equals about 0.47 of one day's global diesel consumption.
- [22]
The first tranche equals about 7.8 per cent of one day's global diesel consumption.
- [23]
Brent at $104.61 is $14.61 above Goldman Sachs's $90 December forecast.
- [24]
The 3 per cent gasoil fall is about 27 times Brent's 0.11 per cent fall.
Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- channelnewsasia.comOil falls on hopes Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire will boost supplies
1 article · October 11, 2026
- semafor.comRussia hammers Ukraine despite President Trump's energy ceasefire
1 article · October 12, 2026
Topics and entities
Entities
- Houthis
- Volodymyr Zelenskiy
- Goldman Sachs
- Donald Trump
- International Energy Agency
- Brent Crude