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ICE gasoil futures fell 4.3% to $1,419.5 a ton after Trump said Russia would supply diesel

Brent crude traded near $105 a barrel as Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia met a temporary US waiver on Russian diesel. Goldman Sachs estimates the Gulf risk premium at just over $20 a barrel.

The Investor · Invest desk

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Illustration accompanying ICE gasoil futures fell 4.3% to $1,419.5 a ton after Trump said Russia would supply diesel
Generated illustration
Russia's diesel release is about a day of US use Russian diesel volumes cited by Trump and by PVM analyst Tamas Varga, set against US consumption as Varga put it.

Trump said Russia will supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel (2.25 million barrels). PVM's Tamas Varga said Moscow is allowing 500,000 tons (around 3.7 million barrels) onto the international market, roughly one day of US consumption.

Russia's diesel release is about a day of US use
FigureValueNoteClaim
Diesel Russia will supply, per Trump, over300,000 metric tons2.25 million barrels24
Diesel Moscow lets out for export, per Varga500,000 tonsaround 3.7 million barrels25
US consumption the 500,000 tons equals, roughly1 dayper Tamas Varga, PVM25

What happened

  • The Houthis claimed responsibility for Saturday's strike on Riyadh's international airport that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300, Reuters reported.
  • Trump said on Friday that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons of diesel, about 2.25 million barrels, to US and global markets, with more to come.
  • ING analysts said there is considerable scepticism over the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, given reports that Russia has hit Ukrainian energy targets since Trump announced it.
  • On Tuesday Brent fell $1.18, or 1.1%, to $105.47, on track for its first decline in nearly a week, while WTI slipped $1.17 to $92.57.

Why it matters

  • What it costs cost OPEC and non-OPEC ministers put shipping and insurance above one-third of commodity value, which is about $35 on a $105.47 Brent barrel and more than the risk premium Goldman estimates.
  • What it limits constraint Buyers cannot plan around the waiver: it is temporary, and lawmakers from both US parties say the deal appears to violate the law barring Russian energy imports.
  • Who has to decide decision The IEA's Fatih Birol told members to assess whether more diesel stock releases are needed, so governments face that call whether or not Russian cargoes arrive.
  • What doesn't add up contradiction OPEC cut its demand-growth forecast by 1.0 million barrels a day, yet Brent still trades above $105, so the price is paying for supply risk.

Next story · Invest · 4d ago

Gasoil falls 3% on Russian diesel pledge while Brent barely moves

Confirmed2 publishers

The two forces act on different barrels. In the same Reuters report where Brent rose 0.7% [2], ICE gasoil fell 4.3% to $1,419.5 a metric ton [14], a gap of five percentage points [17]. At the 7.5 barrels a ton implied by Trump's 300,000-ton, 2.25-million-barrel offer [24], that gasoil price is about $189 a barrel [18], some $84 above Brent's $105.41 [19].

Size is the first doubt about the diesel. PVM's Tamas Varga put the volume Moscow has released at 500,000 tons, about 3.7 million barrels and roughly one day of US consumption [25], against the 300,000 tons Trump announced [24]. The sources do not reconcile the two figures. "The immediate impact of the deal is questionable, as Russia's refining capacity has been severely reduced," Varga said [7]. Neil Wilson, a strategist at Saxo UK, said "a US deal to purchase some Russian diesel is a drop in the ocean" [8].

On the Gulf side, Goldman raised its December Brent forecast to $90 from $85 [13]. Spot at $105.41 is $15.41 above that [20], so the forecast assumes part of the premium drains out by December. "Until we see clearer signs of de-escalation, the path of least resistance still leans higher," Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, said [26].

Brent also trades $12.90 over WTI on Tuesday's prices [16]. Goldman attributes WTI's unusual discount to high US-Europe shipping costs [6].

The administration is making its trade with fuel prices high weeks before the midterm elections, according to the Yahoo Finance report [12]. Zelenskiy said he was still waiting to see details of the energy ceasefire, and Russia did not comment [3].

We think Brent follows the Gulf and gasoil follows Moscow. Three developments would change that. The ceasefire could hold and Russian volumes could grow past the 300,000 to 500,000 tons on the table, which would deepen the gasoil decline without touching crude. The Gulf could go quiet, leaving Brent room to drift toward Goldman's $90. Or Brent could fall in step with gasoil on a day of fresh Houthi or Hormuz incidents. We would call that a miss, because crude traders would then be pricing the diesel.

What to watch

  • Whether Brent falls in step with gasoil on a day when Houthi or Hormuz incidents are reported.
  • Whether Russia confirms the energy ceasefire terms and Zelenskiy gets the details he said he is waiting for.
  • Whether US lawmakers act on the complaint that the diesel waiver breaches the law barring Russian energy imports.

Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.

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What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.

Reality

Evidence64
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Hype gap+35
Incentives40
Confidence66

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  1. [1]

    ING analysts said there is considerable scepticism over the Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire, particularly with reports that Russia has hit Ukrainian energy targets since Trump announced it.

    Reported Supported Source: ING analysts, in a noteView cited source
  2. [2]

    Brent crude futures rose 69 cents, or 0.7%, to $105.41 a barrel by 0923 GMT on Monday, while WTI was at $92.42, up 57 cents.

    Reported Supported Source: ReutersView cited source
  3. [3]

    Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was still waiting to see details of the energy ceasefire Trump announced, while Russia did not comment.

    Reported Supported Source: ReutersView cited source
  4. [4]

    Trump said Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets, and his administration temporarily lifted US sanctions on Russian fuel.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  5. [5]

    Lawmakers from both parties in the US complained that Trump's agreement with Putin appears to violate US law barring imports of Russian energy until Moscow ends its aggression against Ukraine.

    Reported SupportedView cited source
  6. [6]

    Goldman said WTI prices are unusually low versus Brent because of high US-Europe shipping costs.

    Reported Supported Source: Goldman SachsView cited source
  7. [7]

    PVM analyst Tamas Varga said: "The immediate impact of the deal is questionable, as Russia's refining capacity has been severely reduced."

    Reported Supported Source: Tamas Varga, PVMView cited source
  8. [8]

    Neil Wilson, a strategist at Saxo UK, said "a US deal to purchase some Russian diesel is a drop in the ocean".

    Reported Supported Source: Neil Wilson, Saxo UKView cited source
  9. [9]

    Brent crude futures dropped $1.18, or 1.1%, to $105.47 a barrel by 0625 GMT on Tuesday, on track for their first decline in nearly a week; US WTI futures were down $1.17, or 1.3%, at $92.57.

    Reported Supported Source: CNA/Reuters, Oct 12View cited source
  10. [10]

    Ministers of OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries in the Declaration of Cooperation said shipping and insurance costs have surged to levels of over one-third of the commodity value, impeding efficient movement of crude oil and products.

    Reported Supported Source: OPEC and non-OPEC ministersView cited source
  11. [11]

    OPEC revised down its oil demand growth forecast for this year to 400,000 barrels per day from 1.4 million bpd at the start of the year, Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said on Monday.

    Reported Supported Source: Haitham Al Ghais, OPECView cited source
  12. [12]

    Trump is grappling with high fuel prices weeks before midterm elections in the US.

    Reported Supported Source: Yahoo Finance reportView cited source
  13. [13]

    Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $90 a barrel from $85, estimating a risk premium of just over $20 a barrel.

    Reported Supported Source: Goldman Sachs, in a noteView cited source
  14. [14]

    ICE gasoil futures fell 4.3% to $1,419.5 per metric ton.

    Reported Supported Source: ReutersView cited source
  15. [15]

    The International Energy Agency's Fatih Birol said all members should assess whether additional diesel releases are necessary, and that countries which have not fully delivered pledged volumes should accelerate releases, prioritising diesel.

    Reported Supported Source: Fatih Birol, IEAView cited source
  16. [16]

    On Tuesday's prices Brent was $12.90 above WTI.

    Derived Supported
  17. [17]

    The gasoil move (-4.3%) and the Brent move (+0.7%) in the same Reuters report differ by 5.0 percentage points.

    Derived Supported
  18. [18]

    Trump's offer implies 2.25 million / 300,000 = 7.5 barrels per ton; $1,419.5 per ton at that ratio is about $189 per barrel.

    Derived Supported
  19. [19]

    Gasoil at about $189 a barrel is about $84 above Brent at $105.41.

    Derived Supported
  20. [20]

    Brent at $105.41 is $15.41 above Goldman's $90 December forecast.

    Derived Supported
  21. [21]

    One-third of a $105.47 Brent barrel is about $35.

    Derived Supported
  22. [22]

    OPEC's cut to its demand growth forecast is 1.0 million barrels per day.

    Derived Supported
  23. [23]

    The Iran-aligned Houthis claimed responsibility for a Saturday strike on Riyadh's international airport that killed 13 people and wounded more than 300; further attacks happened on Sunday.

    Reported Contested Source: ReutersView cited source
  24. [24]

    Trump said on Friday that Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons (2.25 million barrels) of diesel to US and global markets, with more to come later.

    Reported Contested Source: Trump, as reported by ReutersView cited source
  25. [25]

    Varga said Moscow has partially lifted its ban on diesel exports, allowing 500,000 tons (around 3.7 million barrels) to be released onto the international market, equivalent to roughly one day of US consumption.

    Reported Contested Source: Tamas Varga, PVMView cited source
  26. [26]

    Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade, said: "Until we see clearer signs of de-escalation, the path of least resistance still leans higher."

    Reported Insufficient Source: Tim Waterer, KCM TradeView cited source

Sources

3 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.

  1. channelnewsasia.com

    2 articles · October 12, 2026

    Dollar holds 18-month high as Gulf tension, US inflation keep investors on edge
  2. finance.yahoo.com

    2 articles · October 12, 2026

    Oil prices fluctuate on Trump's Russian diesel comments, attacks on Saudi
  3. qz.com

    1 article · October 12, 2026

    Oil rebounds past $105 as traders doubt Trump's Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire

Topics and entities

Topics

  • Gulf security and shipping
  • Russian diesel and sanctions
  • Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire
  • Oil Markets

Entities