Bitcoin's $89.9 million ETF outflow is too small to explain its stall below $87,000
US spot Bitcoin ETFs lost a net $89.9 million on Monday, roughly 0.08% of their $110.8 billion in assets, while Bitcoin stalled again below $87,000. Counted with the two sessions before it, the funds were net buyers, so the sellers who turned the price back over those three days were mostly outside the funds.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- BlackRock's IBIT was the only US spot fund with a net inflow on Monday, about $69.9 million, while ARK and 21Shares' ARKB lost about $85.2 million.
- Bitfinex analysts named $86,500 as the key hurdle after Bitcoin briefly reached $87,220 on Oct. 2.
- Ali Martinez's Glassnode data shows about 1.59 million BTC changed hands between $83,300 and $84,600, the band he treats as main support.
- At about $85,500, Bitcoin trades 32.2% below the $126,080 record it set on Oct. 6, 2025.
Why it matters
- What doesn't add up contradiction Treating the net figure as an institutional exit overstates it, because the funds outside IBIT shed about $159.8 million between them while the largest fund's buyers kept adding.
- Who has to decide decision A buyer at $85,500 is 1.4% below Martinez's $86,700 breakout level and 2.6% above the floor of his support band, a narrow box for setting both an entry trigger and a stop.
- What's now possible capability A close above $86,700 would reach a stretch with no comparable supply until about $105,000, some 22.8% above the current price on Martinez's data.
Next story · Invest · Oct 8
Bitcoin slips into a Glassnode liquidation band after a $484.9 million ETF exitConfirmed6 publishers
The funds took in about $293 million over the two sessions before Monday [8], so the three days still net out to roughly $203 million of buying [18]. Monday's outflow was about 4.1% of the $2.18 billion the funds traded that day [9][19]. Against a market value near $1.72 trillion [2], a withdrawal that size does little to explain a ceiling that has held through several tests since late September [3].
Martinez's support band is bigger than the whole ETF complex, or rather the coins in it are worth more at the current price: about $136 billion at $85,500 [20], against $110.8 billion held across every US spot fund [15]. Those coins are about 7.9% of the roughly 20.1 million implied by Bitcoin's market value [21]. As a group the fund holders are ahead. Cumulative net inflows are about $57.7 billion [15], so roughly $53.1 billion of the funds' assets is price gain on money already in [24].
The counter-case is in crypto.news's own earlier reporting: recent rallies struggled to hold once fund buying slowed, and the October breakout still needed stronger spot demand to push toward the high-$90,000s [27]. On that account the funds matter at the margin even when a day's flow is small against the stock. I think both readings fit the record. The ETFs have been the buyer that lifts the price toward $87,000, and on the last three sessions' numbers they have not been the seller that turns it back [18].
Three outcomes fit the levels the analysts have drawn. Martinez argues for a close above $86,700 [5]. He said such a break could put $100,000 back in focus, a conditional scenario the on-chain data does not guarantee [26]. Daan Crypto Trades sees lower highs stacked above $87,000 and a pool of liquidity near $83,000, and said a break from either side could produce a stronger move [12]. The third outcome is more of what the past seven days produced, trade between $82,911 and $87,086 [4].
This view fails in two cases. If the price clears $87,000 on a day the funds post outflows, it did not need them. If a run of large redemptions arrives as the price falls through $83,300 [6], the ETFs were the seller after all.
For scale, BlackRock's iShares research records completed declines of about 80%, 83% and 77% after the 2014, 2017 and 2021 peaks [16]. The current gap from the record is less than half the smallest of them [25]. The crypto.news report cautions that those figures do not establish how deep this cycle will go [16].
What to watch
- Whether IBIT keeps taking in money while ARKB and the smaller funds keep redeeming, which would show the selling is concentrated rather than broad.
- Weekly RSI, near 64 and below overbought, as the price presses the upper Bollinger Band on the next test of $87,000.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives45
- Confidence64
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers- Builder
- Builder 5%
- Operator
- Operator 8%
- Investor
- Investor 87%
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Bitcoin slipped back toward $85,500 on Oct. 6 after another rejection near $87,000; CoinGecko puts BTC near $85,500 at the latest reading.
- [2]
CoinGecko data shows a 24-hour range of roughly $85,010 to $86,662 and a market value close to $1.72 trillion.
- [3]
Bitcoin has tested the $87,000 area several times since late September without establishing a sustained break.
- [4]
CoinGecko's seven-day range for Bitcoin stretches from $82,911 to $87,086.
- [5]
Martinez identified $86,700 as the level buyers need to clear; his analysis showed no similarly dense supply concentration above that point until around $105,000.
- [6]
Ali Martinez said BTC has built support between $83,300 and $84,600, where his Glassnode URPD data showed roughly 1.59 million BTC changing hands.
- [7]
Bitfinex analysts identified $86,500 as a key hurdle for Bitcoin after the token briefly reached $87,220 on Oct. 2.
- [8]
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $89.9 million in net outflows on Monday, Oct. 5, after taking in around $293 million during the previous two October trading sessions.
- [9]
Total trading volume across the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $2.18 billion on Monday.
- [10]
Bitcoin's weekly RSI near 64 remains below overbought territory while price approaches the upper Bollinger Band.
- [11]
BTC reached its $126,080 all-time high on Oct. 6, 2025, leaving the current price of about $85,500 32.2% below the record.
- [12]
Crypto analyst Daan Crypto Trades said the $85,000 area has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance, identified a cluster of lower highs above $87,000 and a liquidity area around $83,000, and argued that a break from either side could produce a stronger price move.
- [13]
The next dense supply level Martinez identifies, around $105,000, is about 22.8% above $85,500.
- [14]
BlackRock's IBIT was the only fund with a net inflow on Monday, about $69.9 million; ARK Invest and 21Shares' ARKB recorded the largest withdrawal at roughly $85.2 million.
- [15]
Total U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF assets stood near $110.8 billion, while cumulative net inflows were approximately $57.7 billion.
- [16]
BlackRock's iShares research records Bitcoin drawdowns of roughly 80% after the 2014 peak, 83% after the 2017 high and 77% after the 2021 top; crypto.news says these completed drawdowns do not establish how deep the current cycle will become.
- [17]
Monday's $89.9 million net outflow was about 0.08% of the $110.8 billion in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF assets.
- [18]
Across the three sessions through Monday, the funds were net buyers of about $203 million.
- [19]
Monday's net outflow was about 4.1% of the day's $2.18 billion in fund trading volume.
- [20]
The roughly 1.59 million BTC in Martinez's support band is worth about $136 billion at $85,500.
- [21]
Bitcoin's market value implies about 20.1 million coins, so the 1.59 million BTC band is about 7.9% of supply.
- [22]
At $85,500, Bitcoin is about 1.4% below Martinez's $86,700 breakout level and about 2.6% above the $83,300 floor of his support band.
- [23]
Excluding IBIT's inflow, the other U.S. spot Bitcoin funds had combined net outflows of about $159.8 million on Monday, of which ARKB was $85.2 million and the rest about $74.6 million.
- [24]
About $53.1 billion of the funds' $110.8 billion in assets is price gain above cumulative net inflows.
- [25]
Bitcoin's current 32.2% gap from its record is less than half the smallest of the three prior completed drawdowns (77%).
- [26]
Martinez said a successful break could put $100,000 back into focus; crypto.news describes this as a conditional analyst scenario, not a price forecast guaranteed by the on-chain data.
- [27]
Crypto.news previously reported that recent Bitcoin rallies have struggled to hold after fund buying slows, and that the October breakout still required stronger spot demand to extend toward the high-$90,000s.
Sources
3 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- cointelegraph.comBitcoin grinds toward $87K as US equities hit new record highs
1 article · October 6, 2026
- crypto.newsBitcoin price keeps failing at $87K, what is stopping it?
1 article · October 6, 2026
- news.bitcoin.comBitcoin Price Pounds the $87K Wall as Bulls Refuse to Back Down
1 article · October 6, 2026