One five-year window puts Bolotana women's odds of reaching 100 near four times Italy's
University of Illinois Chicago researchers estimate a 70-year-old woman in Sardinia's Bolotana has a 13.8% chance of reaching 100, versus 3.5% across Italy. With only 2,266 residents, the estimate swings by period, and for 2015-2019 it was 1.46%, ScienceAlert reported.
The Scientist · Science desk
What happened
- Over 2021-2025, a 70-year-old woman in Bolotana could expect another 20.85 years of life, against 18.4 years for Sardinia as a whole and 18.06 years across Italy.
- Bolotana's men have a smaller edge, 16.02 remaining years at 70 versus 15.48 nationally, though their estimated odds of reaching 100 are 4.92% against Italy's 1.41%.
- The village drew attention in 2024, when six residents over 100 were reported, giving it 11 times the proportion of centenarians found in the United States.
- The researchers rank Bolotana women's longevity prospects second only to Hong Kong worldwide, based on life expectancy at 70 and survival to 100.
Why it matters
- What's now possible capability Earlier Blue Zone claims drew criticism for resting on incomplete records, and Bolotana's verifiable ages let researchers study its old women without first disputing their birth dates.
- Who has to decide decision Separating genes, diet, walking and family support as causes needs individual-level biological, behavioral and social data on residents, the follow-up the researchers propose.
- What doesn't add up contradiction ScienceAlert says the researchers put Bolotana women at more than three times US women's odds of reaching 100, while Discover's lede says almost three times even though its own 13.8% and 3.6% work out to about 3.8.
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The ages hold up. Researchers worked through civil records and church archives of births, baptisms and deaths [17]. "The municipal and baptismal records date back centuries and allowed us to independently verify ages. Every single person that has made it past 100, we can validate. There is no ambiguity," said S. Jay Olshansky, a co-author and professor emeritus of epidemiology at the University of Illinois Chicago [7][20].
The same archive search produces a figure that does not depend on a five-year window. Discover reports 38 centenarians among 3,060 people born in the village between 1900 and 1925 [17]. That is about 1.24% of births [24]. The share pools men and women and counts every birth, including people who died young. The 13.83% figure is a probability for a woman already aged 70, built from 2021-2025 data [1], so the two numbers measure different things. Neither outlet gives an Italian cohort figure to set beside the village's.
The survival rate is less secure. The 13.83% estimate is about 3.9 times the Italian figure [23], and about 9.5 times the 1.46% the same analysis gave for 2015-2019 [22]. That earlier figure is below the national numbers quoted for Italy, 3.54% [2], and for the US, 3.6% [3]. Life expectancy at 70 moved much less, holding at 18.3 years in the earlier window and still above the Italian average [5].
Bolotana lies about 110 km west of the original Sardinian Blue Zone, identified roughly 20 years ago, according to ScienceAlert [12]. The mountain communities already on the blue zone list were known for an exceptionally high number of long-lived men [21]. "Females almost always live longer than males anywhere in the world, but in Sardinia that wasn't the case. It's one of the things that made it so unusual," Olshansky said [19]. "We think this is the longest-lived female population in the world, or close to it," he said [8]. In Bolotana, women's estimated odds of reaching 100 are about 2.8 times the men's [25].
The paper lists candidate causes. "Several mechanisms could plausibly contribute to the pronounced female survival advantage," the researchers wrote, "including genetic background, dietary patterns, physical activity, family support, social cohesion, continuity of residence, and access to care" [11]. Olshansky describes a steep, hilly town where most food is grown locally and social isolation is rare [14]. "You've got this close-knit community where people take care of each other," he said [14]. The thing this doesn't tell you is why those conditions would favour the village's women so much more than its men [15]. The analysis was demographic, and the authors put cause outside its scope [10].
I think Bolotana is worth using as a comparison population, because its ages can be checked [7]. I would treat 13.83% as one five-year reading until another window, or a cohort life table, comes out close to it [1][5].
What to watch
- Whether the UIC team and National Geographic conclude that Bolotana meets the criteria to be named another blue zone.
- Individual-level studies of Bolotana's women that test candidates the paper names, such as genetic background, diet and family support.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+45
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
In a study published in Frontiers in Aging using demographic data from 2021-2025, the estimated probability of a 70-year-old woman in Bolotana living to 100 is 13.83 percent.
- [2]
The corresponding probability of a 70-year-old woman living to 100 is 4.33 percent in Nuoro Province, 4.43 percent in Sardinia and 3.54 percent for Italy as a whole.
- [3]
Women from Bolotana who reach 70 have a 13.8 percent chance of reaching 100; the national average probability of reaching 100 after turning 70 is 3.5 percent in Italy and 3.6 percent in the United States.
- [4]
A 70-year-old woman in Bolotana has a remaining life expectancy of 20.85 years, compared with 18.61 years for Nuoro Province, 18.4 years for Sardinia and 18.06 years across Italy.
- [5]
Due to Bolotana's small population, the results are highly sensitive to the years studied; for 2015-2019 the survival-to-100 estimate for women was 1.46 percent, while life expectancy at 70, at 18.3 years, remained higher than the national average.
- [6]
Bolotana had a population of 2,266 during the study period.
- [7]
"The municipal and baptismal records date back centuries and allowed us to independently verify ages. Every single person that has made it past 100, we can validate. There is no ambiguity." - S. Jay Olshansky
- [8]
"We think this is the longest-lived female population in the world, or close to it," - S. Jay Olshansky
- [9]
The life-expectancy-at-70 and survival-to-100 patterns for Bolotana women rank their longevity prospects as exceptionally high worldwide, second only to Hong Kong.
- [10]
What gives Bolotana women long lives remains unknown; the researchers say it was beyond the scope of their demographic analysis and suggest individual-level studies of biological, behavioral and social contributors.
- [11]
"Several mechanisms could plausibly contribute to the pronounced female survival advantage, including genetic background, dietary patterns, physical activity, family support, social cohesion, continuity of residence, and access to care." - the researchers, in their paper
- [12]
Bolotana is approximately 110 kilometers west of the original Sardinian Blue Zone, which scientists identified roughly 20 years ago.
- [13]
Researchers from the UIC School of Public Health collaborated with National Geographic and investigated whether Bolotana meets the criteria to become another blue zone.
- [14]
Olshansky notes residents live in a steep, hilly landscape where most food is grown locally and social isolation is rare; "You've got this close-knit community where people take care of each other," he said.
- [15]
A 70-year-old man in Bolotana has a modestly higher life expectancy (16.02 years) than the Italian average (15.48 years), and an estimated 4.92 percent probability of surviving from 70 to 100, against a national average of 1.41 percent.
- [16]
Bolotana gained attention in 2024 when six people over the age of 100 were reported to live in the village; relative to its population, it had 11 times the proportion of centenarians found in the United States.
- [17]
Searching civil records and church archives of birth, baptism and death certificates, researchers identified 38 centenarians among 3,060 people born in the village between 1900 and 1925.
- [18]
The Blue Zones Project has received criticism for exaggerating longevity claims that may be based on incomplete records.
- [19]
"Females almost always live longer than males anywhere in the world, but in Sardinia that wasn't the case. It's one of the things that made it so unusual," - Jay Olshansky
- [20]
Jay Olshansky is a co-author of the study and professor emeritus of epidemiology at the University of Illinois Chicago School of Public Health.
- [21]
Communities in the mountains of Sardinia already made the blue zone list, known for an exceptionally high number of long-lived male residents.
- [22]
The 2021-2025 estimate for Bolotana women is about 9.5 times the 2015-2019 estimate.
- [23]
Bolotana women's 2021-2025 probability of reaching 100 from 70 is about 3.9 times the Italian figure.
- [24]
About 1.24% of people born in Bolotana between 1900 and 1925 reached 100.
- [25]
Bolotana women's estimated odds of reaching 100 from 70 are about 2.8 times Bolotana men's.
- [26]
The researchers say the probability of a 70-year-old Bolotana woman surviving to 100 is more than three times the corresponding value for US women.
- [27]
Discover reported that Bolotana women are almost three times as likely to become a centenarian as women in the United States.
- [28]
Discover's own figures imply Bolotana women's odds of reaching 100 from 70 are about 3.8 times US women's, more than the 'almost three times' in its lede.
Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- discovermagazine.com100-Year-Old Women in a Tiny Sardinian Village Could Make it the World’s Next Blue Zone
1 article · October 6, 2026
- sciencealert.comScientists Identify a Small Village in Italy Where Women Live Exceptionally Long Lives
1 article · October 7, 2026
Topics and entities
Topics
Entities
- University of Illinois Chicago School of Public Health
- National Geographic
- Frontiers in Aging
- Blue Zones, Inc.
- S. Jay Olshansky