Google's AI Overview pilot pays small publishers about a tenth of a percent of their ad revenue

A small publisher in Google's pilot gets two things back. One is a count of how often AI Overviews drew on its content ^[8]. The other is a payment, and at the reported rate it comes to about a dollar for every $1,000 the site earns from ads ^[15].

Google's pitch, as Ars Technica describes it, is that a site gets paid when its content "materially contributes" to a Gemini-powered result such as an AI Overview ^[10]. Members measure that payment against their traffic. 9to5Google reports traffic is down almost universally, though Google insists AI is not to blame ^[9]. For the smallest sites, Ars Technica wrote that the payments "won't come close to offsetting declining traffic" ^[12]. The payment figures support that verdict. The reports do not say how much ad revenue any member has lost, so the shortfall cannot be put in dollars.

The top of the range is harder to fit into the same complaint. The early member's pace of more than $1 million a year works out to about $2,740 a day ^[16], more than the smallest sites have collected in several months ^[3]. A more recent member has earned $50,000 to $60,000, a small slice of its business ^[5]. The top earner's early start is one candidate explanation ^[4]. Topic is another: 9to5Google reports that less widely covered topics with strong reader interest, anime and gaming among them, currently earn more ^[7].

Larger publishers staying out are betting on Google's own needs. According to 9to5Google, The Information reports that Google "needs these web publishers to stay active" for its models and answers to stay current and accurate ^[13]. Small sites that join now get the usage count and accept a rate the holdouts are trying to raise ^[6].

I think most small and mid-sized sites should join for the count and book the payment at zero. The tradeoff is that the count shows how often Google uses a site's pages ^[8] and brings none of the clicks those pages used to earn. Two facts about your own site place you in the grid: whether your topics are thinly covered with strong demand, and whether you are large enough that staying out is a credible position.

- Small site, niche topic: join. This is the profile the early reporting says the pilot pays best ^[7]. - Small site, widely covered topic: join for the usage count and plan as if the payment rounds to nothing. - Large publisher, widely covered topic: the holdouts' position ^[6]. If the rate resembles what small members report, declining costs almost nothing ^[2]. - Large publisher, niche topic: the hard cell. The payment could be real money, and every large site that signs lowers the pressure on Google to raise the rate.