Morgan Stanley ties its $300 SpaceX target to Starship Flight 15 and late-October earnings
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas told clients to buy SpaceX before Starship Flight 15, with a $300 target about 75% above Monday's $171.09 close. Tying the call to dates means it gets checked twice within weeks, first by the test flight and then by third-quarter results expected in late October.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- SpaceX shares rose almost 8% on Monday, the day after the Sunday note, to their highest level since mid-June.
- SpaceX's Flight 14 took Starship to low Earth orbit for the first time and deployed Starlink satellites.
- SpaceX listed on June 12, set a record close of $201.80 on June 16, bottomed in early August and has climbed about 58% since.
- SpaceX has earned over $12.7 billion to date from Defense Department work, according to FedScout figures cited by CNBC.
Why it matters
- Who has to decide decision The note gives clients a timing choice. They can take the Flight 15 outcome at Monday's price, or wait for the result and pay whatever price it sets.
- What it limits constraint If space and connectivity are already fully valued, as Yahoo's reporter reads the note, the gap to $300 has to close through the AI business, so late-October results carry most of that weight.
- Who's exposed exposure Reaching $300 requires a close about 49% above the best SpaceX has posted since its June listing. Buyers acting on the note are paying for a price the stock has never closed at.
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The note's title put SpaceX at $159 [4]. Monday's close of $171.09 is 7.6% above that [16]. At $159 the $300 target implied about 89% upside [17]. At Monday's close it implies about 75% [18]. The target stayed where it was, so the upside Jonas advertised shrank by roughly 13 points in one session [19].
Jonas put a deadline on it. "We think that over the next few weeks (ahead of Starship Flight 15), investors can take advantage of a unique opportunity to buy shares that look unusually cheap," he said [6]. The catalyst the analysts rank highest depends on SpaceX choosing to try it. Should SpaceX attempt to catch the upper stage on that flight, they wrote, it could be "the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO" [7]. Upper stages have so far splashed down in the ocean and have not been proven reusable [9].
Third-quarter results, expected in late October, are the other date [3]. Yahoo Finance's reporter takes the note to be a sum-of-the-parts valuation in which investors fully value the space and connectivity units but not the AI business [12]. CNBC calls the revenue SpaceX earns renting capacity to Google and Anthropic hefty [10]. The report does not put a number on it. Jonas wants that business judged on neocloud contracts "showing continued pricing around $30-50/watt" [8]. He also said how hard that price is to forecast: "Fewer still can say where compute pricing is heading as agentic token demand grows" [13].
If SpaceX attempts the catch and lands it, the note gets the event it ranked highest [7]. A Flight 15 that skips the attempt, or fails it, ends Jonas's few-week window without that catalyst [6]. October results showing compute contracts priced outside $30 to $50 a watt would leave the AI business at the discount Yahoo's reporter describes [12].
In my view the stock has already priced in part of that calendar. Working back from Monday's close and the climb since early August, the bottom was roughly $108 [20]. That was about 46% below the June 16 record close [21]. Retaking the record needs another 18% [23]. I'd expect the Flight 15 result to move the price more than the $300 figure does over the next few weeks. Jonas's ownership point argues the other way. According to Yahoo Finance, he says barely any of the clients at his presentations own the stock [14], and buyers who arrive to fix that do not need a ship catch. If the shares hold above $171 after a Flight 15 without a catch, I am wrong.
What to watch
- Whether SpaceX attempts an upper-stage catch on Starship Flight 15, and whether the catch succeeds.
- Third-quarter results expected in late October, and whether they show compute contracts priced near $30-50 per watt.
- Whether Morgan Stanley changes its $300 target or Outperform rating after Flight 15 flies.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives66
- Confidence60
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers- Builder
- Builder 14%
- Operator
- Operator 13%
- Investor
- Investor 73%
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
SpaceX shares rose almost 8% on Monday, reaching their highest level since mid-June.
- [2]
In a Sunday note, Morgan Stanley analysts called SpaceX "cheap", recommended buying the stock and set a $300 price target, about 75% above Monday's $171.09 close.
- [3]
The Morgan Stanley analysts suggested investors buy SpaceX shares before the company's next planned Starship test flight and ahead of its third-quarter earnings report, expected in late October.
- [4]
Morgan Stanley's Adam Jonas, in a note titled "SPCX $159: Cheap and Getting Cheaper," reiterated his Outperform rating and $300 price target.
- [5]
SpaceX went public on June 12, hit a record close of $201.80 on June 16, trended lower to a bottom in early August and has since climbed about 58%.
- [6]
"We think that over the next few weeks (ahead of Starship Flight 15), investors can take advantage of a unique opportunity to buy shares that look unusually cheap," Jonas said.
- [7]
Should SpaceX attempt a Starship upper stage ship catch in its next test flight, that could be "the biggest positive catalyst since the IPO," the analysts wrote.
- [8]
"We believe future AI product releases, Starship progress, and additional neocloud contracts showing continued pricing around $30-50/watt are all upside-skewed catalysts that can push the stock closer to our $300/share price target."
- [9]
In prior test flights the Starship upper stage has splashed down in the ocean and has not been proven reusable.
- [10]
SpaceX's AI business came from last year's acquisition of xAI and was expanded through the recent acquisition of Cursor; SpaceX is generating hefty revenue by renting out capacity to the likes of Google and Anthropic.
- [11]
During Flight 14, Starship reached low Earth orbit for the first time and deployed Starlink satellites.
- [12]
Yahoo Finance's reporter wrote that Jonas appears to use a sum-of-the-parts analysis, with investors fully valuing the Space & Connectivity units but not the AI opportunity, which includes compute deals and chipmaking.
- [13]
"Fewer still can say where compute pricing is heading as agentic token demand grows," Jonas said.
- [14]
Jonas claims he attends several presentations where barely any of his clients own the stock.
- [15]
SpaceX has earned over $12.7 billion to date from its work with the Defense Department, according to FedScout.
- [16]
Monday's $171.09 close is about 7.6% above the $159 in the note's title.
- [17]
At $159 the $300 target implied about 89% upside.
- [18]
At Monday's $171.09 close the $300 target implies about 75% upside.
- [19]
Implied upside to the unchanged $300 target fell by about 13 percentage points between the note's $159 and Monday's close.
- [20]
The early-August bottom implied by a 58% climb to Monday's close is roughly $108.
- [21]
The roughly $108 August bottom was about 46% below the $201.80 record close of June 16.
- [22]
The $300 target is about 49% above SpaceX's $201.80 record close.
- [23]
Retaking the $201.80 record close requires a rise of about 18% from Monday's $171.09 close.
Sources
5 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- cnbc.comSpaceX stock climbs to highest since June, returning Musk to trillionaire status
1 article · October 5, 2026
- cryptopolitan.comSpaceX stock jumps 6% to $168 as Musk rebrands AI unit SpaceXSI
1 article · October 5, 2026
- cryptotimes.ioSpaceX Stock (SPCX) Jumps 7.6%, Musk Becomes Trillionaire Again
1 article · October 5, 2026
- en.sedaily.comSpaceX Jumps for Second Day After Morgan Stanley Says Buy Now
1 article · October 6, 2026
- finance.yahoo.comSpaceX jumps to highest close since June on bullish Morgan Stanley call
2 articles · October 6, 2026
- qz.comMorgan Stanley calls SpaceX stock cheap ahead of next Starship test
1 article · October 6, 2026
Topics and entities
Topics
- Sell-Side Equity Research
- AI compute and neoclouds
- Reusable Launch Vehicles