Paramount's $110 billion Warner Bros. deal will close as Skydance under a 30-film yearly floor

On October 6, a household that pays for HBO Max and Paramount+ becomes a customer of the same company twice ^[2][9]. On the investor call earlier this year, executives did not say how a combined service would be priced ^[11]. 9to5mac reported this week that no timeline for merging the two has been communicated ^[14].

The first thing to change is the parent company's name. It will be Skydance ^[1]. Ellison's post on X announcing the name describes a parent that stays behind its studios. "We never wanted a new corporate identity to diminish, alter or overshadow either one," he wrote ^[3]. Earlier this year he made a similar promise about streaming. "HBO should stay HBO," he said ^[12]. 9to5mac expects Skydance to become the name of the merged streaming service as well ^[18]. If it does, the corporate name Ellison said should not overshadow the studios becomes the app a subscriber opens, with HBO as a section inside it ^[13].

Ellison put the combined service at about 200 million subscribers, based on existing totals ^[10]. A household paying for both services is one customer with two accounts. Once the apps merge, its two subscriptions become one at most ^[17]. If the 200 million is the two existing bases added together, that household is in it twice.

Ellison's post calls Skydance "a creative-first home for bold, quality storytelling" ^[5]. The settlement with the 12 states puts a number on part of that ^[15]. Its theatrical minimum runs for five years and starts at 30 releases a year in years one and two ^[6]. Across those two years that comes to at least 60 films ^[16], a slate cinema operators can plan screens against. The reports put a yearly figure only on years one and two.

For anyone planning around Skydance next week, it helps to ask of each announcement whether it changes something a customer sees or pays for, and whether it comes with a date or a number. The new name and Kreiz's appointment as co-CEO both have dates, and neither changes anything a subscriber touches ^[1][7]. The film floor has both a date and a number, and it reaches customers through what plays in cinemas ^[6]. The combined streamer changes a subscriber's app and bill, and nobody has given it a date ^[14].

I'd plan against the dated items. Until Skydance reports unique subscribers after the apps merge, I'd treat the 200 million as the two old bases added together ^[10][17]. Retention after the merge, counted in households, will show how big the combined audience is. The tradeoff is that the dated items are the ones a subscriber notices least.