Trump's push to oust Powell gives the former Fed chair a reason to keep his board seat

"He can't manage a Building, and he certainly shouldn't be allowed to manage his High Interest Rate Policy (only on 'TRUMP!')," Trump's post said ^[4]. The building is the stated grievance. The rate is the one he keeps coming back to. On Sept. 16, the day of the last FOMC meeting, Trump wrote that rates "should be 1%, or less," against a current range of 3.75% to 4% ^[9]. That puts his target 2.75 to 3 percentage points below where the Fed sits ^[15]. The American Banker account does not give the size of the renovation overrun, only Trump's claim that the building is "over budget, at a Record Setting rate" ^[3].

Powell's own exit condition is where the post works against itself. He tied his departure to the end of the Justice Department's investigations ^[7], and American Banker says Trump's statement indicates they are not over ^[5]. "We believe the President's response to the Inspector General's report will convince Jerome Powell to keep his seat at the Federal Reserve at least through early January 2027," Jaret Seiberg, managing director at TD Cowen, wrote in a note on Thursday ^[10].

That leaves three exit dates, each set by a different decision. If the post is the end of it, early January 2027 is Seiberg's floor. If the Justice Department moves, Seiberg wrote that whether Powell stays "until his term expires in January 2028 likely will depend upon whether the Justice Department acts on Trump's social media post" ^[11]. January 2028 is about a year past the floor ^[16]. The third path runs through November. A Democratic Senate could block Trump from appointing a replacement, which Seiberg says could open the way to an earlier exit ^[12]. "Even just the House going Democratic could convince Powell that he can depart without the risk of Trump ordering him prosecuted," Seiberg wrote, because House Democrats "would be able to investigate the prosecution and why the President is focused on him" ^[13].

I think the post gets Trump the opposite of what it asks for. While Powell holds the seat, Trump has no replacement to appoint ^[12]. An instruction to Blanche costs nothing to issue, and it gives Powell grounds to treat the inquiries as unfinished ^[1]. The counter-case is that a government suit for "corruption or incompetence" ^[2] makes staying expensive for Powell personally, and a governor facing one could decide the seat is not worth defending. The view is wrong if Powell resigns before early January 2027 while the Justice Department question is still open.