Wall Street profits jump 51% in the first half, nearly three times the rise in pay spending
New York's comptroller says Wall Street earned $45.9 billion before tax in the first half, up 51.3%, and could top $90 billion for the year. Pay spending rose 18.8% over the same months, Seoul Economic Daily reported, so a second record bonus year looks likely if deal fees hold.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- The six-month profit already beats the $45.3 billion that New York City had forecast for the entire year.
- Global mergers and acquisitions totaled $2.8 trillion in the first half, more than in any other half-year on record.
- New York's securities industry paid out a record $49.2 billion in bonuses last year.
- DiNapoli expects this year's bonuses to beat last year's barring a major economic shock, after the city had forecast a drop of about 20%.
- New York City collected $7.8 billion in taxes from the securities industry in fiscal 2026, above its previous high of $6.9 billion in fiscal 2022.
Why it matters
- What it costs cost Shareholders are getting a bigger share of the industry's take, because profit is growing well over twice as fast as spending on pay.
- What it limits constraint To reach $90 billion, the second half has to be nearly as strong as the first while rising borrowing costs weigh on the underwriting business that led the gain.
- Who's exposed exposure New York State gets 20.8% of its tax revenue from the securities industry, so a second-half slump in deal fees would hit the state budget directly.
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Little of the first-half profit came from trading. Trading-related revenue was $40.3 billion, up 1.8% [22]. That is an increase of roughly $0.7 billion [30], set against $15.5 billion more in pretax profit than in the first half of 2025 [23]. DiNapoli still gave volatility a share of the credit. "Wall Street is having an unusually strong year, fueled by the artificial intelligence spending boom, an increase in mergers and acquisitions, and higher trading volumes driven by market volatility," he said [12]. According to The Daily Upside, the strongest lines were underwriting, account supervision and commissions, and commodities trading was the exception [13].
Pay costs are rising, or rather they are rising well behind the profit that pays for them. Member firms' spending on salaries, bonuses and stock compensation rose 18.8% in the first half [16], while profit rose 51.3% [1]. That puts profit growth at about 2.7 times pay growth [27]. Last year went the same way. Profit rose 30.4% to a record $65.1 billion [11]. Average pay including base salary rose 11.1% to $561,770 [4], and the average bonus rose 6% to $246,900 [15]. Bonus growth was about a fifth of profit growth [28].
If the second half repeats the first, the year clears $90 billion. That would be 38% above 2025 [26] and, by The Daily Upside's reckoning, above 2009 even after inflation [10]. Getting there takes $44.1 billion in the second half, about 4% less than the first [25]. Rates are the obvious obstacle. The 10-year Treasury yield recently hit its highest level since 2002, and markets expect at least one more rate hike at the end of the year [20]. The comptroller lists rising rates among its risks, along with geopolitical conflict and elevated prices [19].
A third path is that firms hand more of the gain to staff to keep them. The comptroller's figures show steady hiring. The city had a record 207,400 securities jobs last year [17], and about 5,300 more are expected this year [18], a 2.6% increase [29]. They do not show firms bidding up pay to hold people.
I expect pay to keep trailing profit. The pay bill should rise at something near the first half's 18.8%, and the bonus pool should set a record, with profit growing faster than both. The Daily Upside wrote that excitement about upcoming IPOs from Anthropic and OpenAI is likely to keep M&A activity strong [31]. The counter-case is concentration. The 10 largest S&P 500 companies make up 39% of the index [21], and the comptroller warned that AI's outsized share of the rally could amplify volatility [19]. The view is wrong if the tax withholding data due around March [6] show the average bonus rising as fast as profit.
New York's budgets depend on these payouts. The state took $26.3 billion in taxes from the securities industry in fiscal 2025-26, up 28.5% [7]. The city's take was roughly 9% of its total tax collections, according to The Daily Upside [9].
What to watch
- Tax withholding data due around March: an average bonus rising as fast as profit would undercut the case that pay is trailing the gain.
- Second-half results for NYSE member firms: anything below $44.1 billion means the year falls short of DiNapoli's $90 billion.
- Treasury yields and the expected year-end rate hike, set against the underwriting and advisory lines that carried the first half.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
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What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
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3 publishers- Builder
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- [1]
Pretax profits on Wall Street were $45.9 billion in the first half of 2026, up 51.3% from $30.4 billion a year earlier.
- [2]
New York State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli projected that annual profits at New York's securities industry could top $90 billion this year if the current pace holds.
- [3]
First-half profits already surpassed the $45.3 billion full-year profit that New York City had initially forecast.
- [4]
Including base pay, average annual compensation for securities industry workers in New York City reached $561,770 last year, up 11.1%.
- [5]
DiNapoli said bonuses this year would exceed last year's levels barring a major economic shock; New York City had expected Wall Street bonuses to shrink about 20% this year.
- [6]
Actual average bonus figures for this year are due around March next year, when tax withholding data is compiled.
- [7]
New York State collected $26.3 billion in taxes from the securities industry in fiscal 2025-2026, up 28.5%, or 20.8% of the state's total tax revenue.
- [8]
New York City is estimated to have collected $7.8 billion from the securities industry in fiscal 2026, up 15.8% and above the previous high of $6.9 billion in fiscal 2022.
- [9]
The city's $7.8 billion in securities industry tax revenue was roughly 9% of its total tax collections.
- [10]
Profits above $90 billion would top 2009 levels even adjusting for inflation.
- [11]
Annual profit in 2025 was $65.1 billion, up 30.4% from $49.9 billion the previous year and an all-time high in nominal terms.
- [12]
"Wall Street is having an unusually strong year, fueled by the artificial intelligence spending boom, an increase in mergers and acquisitions, and higher trading volumes driven by market volatility," DiNapoli said.
- [13]
Nearly all revenue lines increased, with underwriting activities, account supervision and commissions particularly strong; commodities trading was the exception.
- [14]
Total bonuses in New York's securities industry reached a record $49.2 billion last year.
- [15]
The average bonus per employee was $246,900 last year, up 6% from the previous year.
- [16]
Spending by New York Stock Exchange member firms on salaries, bonuses and stock compensation rose 18.8% in the first half from the same period last year.
- [17]
Employment in New York City's securities industry totaled 207,400 last year, the highest since the data series began in 2000.
- [18]
At the current pace, about 5,300 more securities industry jobs are expected to be added this year.
- [19]
The comptroller's office cited geopolitical conflict, elevated prices and rising interest rates as risk factors, and noted that the AI industry's outsized share of the recent rally could amplify volatility.
- [20]
The 10-year US Treasury yield recently hit its highest level since 2002, and markets expect at least one more interest rate hike at the end of the year.
- [21]
The top 10 constituents of the S&P 500 account for 39% of the index.
- [22]
Trading-related revenue totaled $40.3 billion in the first half, up 1.8% from a year earlier.
- [23]
First-half pretax profit rose by $15.5 billion year on year.
- [24]
Global mergers and acquisitions activity topped any other half-year period on record at $2.8 trillion.
- [25]
Reaching $90 billion requires $44.1 billion of second-half profit, about 4% less than the first half.
- [26]
A $90 billion year would be about 38% above 2025's $65.1 billion.
- [27]
First-half profit growth was about 2.7 times the growth in member-firm pay spending.
- [28]
In 2025 the average bonus grew at about a fifth of the rate of industry profit.
- [29]
The expected 5,300 new jobs would be about a 2.6% increase on 2025's 207,400.
- [30]
Trading-related revenue rose by roughly $0.7 billion in the first half.
- [31]
Excitement about massive upcoming IPOs from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI is likely to keep M&A activity strong.
Sources
3 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- en.sedaily.comWall Street on Track to Top Record $246,900 Average Bonus
1 article · October 7, 2026
- qz.comWall Street is on pace for record profits topping $90 billion, setting up a bonus boom
1 article · October 6, 2026
- thedailyupside.comNew York State Comptroller Says Wall Street Profits Could Top $90 Billion by the End of the Year
1 article · October 6, 2026
Topics and entities
Topics
- Interest Rates
- Mergers and Acquisitions
- New York public finance
- Wall Street compensation
- Securities industry profits