Unsealed internal comments from Microsoft and OpenAI executives speak to the substitution question that fair use turns on. The visible market response is one options trade worth about $407,000 in premium, expiring in October.
Perspective Coverage
4 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 23%
- Operator
- Operator 40%
- Investor
- Investor 37%
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives72
- Confidence60
buildConfirmed5 publishers USA TODAY Co. sued OpenAI for more than $250 million and an injunction over training ChatGPT on work from 19 publications. The case tests whether a publisher can force payment and limits on the training data that teams building on OpenAI's models depend on.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 28%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 34%
Reality
- Evidence68
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+5
- Incentives62
- Confidence66
OpenAI asks Judge Stein to measure copying by output rather than by corpus
Three summary judgment briefs in the consolidated news publisher case describe the same conduct using denominators that never meet, and the one the court adopts will set what licensed text is worth to every buyer.
Publishers:ppc.land
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives75
- Confidence50
A few seconds of karaoke knock Lindsay Ellis's 2.5-hour cruise video off YouTube
Warner/Chappell's claim on a few seconds of a friend's karaoke took Lindsay Ellis's two-and-a-half-hour cruise video off YouTube, Ellis says. Any team shipping long-form video now has to count stray background music as a risk to the whole upload.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence45
OpenAI and Microsoft records describe chatbots replacing visits to the sources they draw on
OpenAI's ChatGPT chief wrote that its products "are largely substitutive, period," in internal documents made public September 17 in the Times lawsuit. That helps publishers argue over AI search, where Fast Company says the money is, but the labs still set the price.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives60
- Confidence50
Thomson Reuters kept its copyright win over ROSS Intelligence on appeal, the first US appellate ruling on fair use in AI training. ROSS had been refused a Westlaw licence as a rival, so the ruling lets owners of training data set a price or decline to sell.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 19%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 43%
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption30
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives55
- Confidence60
buildOne report1 publisher OpenAI's LibGen cleanup channel became evidence in the authors' summary-judgment brief
Authors suing OpenAI filed a 162-page statement of facts drawn from its Slack threads and paper drafts, including a 2022 project to delete LibGen data. Any team training on outside data should expect its dataset codenames and cleanup channels to be read the same way.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+15
- Incentives70
- Confidence50
The Statement of Interest rests its fair use claim on two executive orders and a statute that requires no leave to file, which tells you what the filing cost the government and how long any relief priced off it can last.
Publishers:lowenstein.com · theintercept.com
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+10
- Incentives60
- Confidence66
One enforcement vendor's DMCA filings can take a 1.3 million-subscriber library offline before anyone weighs fair use. Nicholas Light got his videos back, and the question behind them stayed open.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives70
- Confidence60
OpenAI and Microsoft say plaintiffs' lawyers paid for research to supply evidence their clients lacked
OpenAI and Microsoft accuse Susman Godfrey, the plaintiffs' firm in the consolidated AI copyright suit, of paying for research and hiding the payment. At stake is the kind of market-dilution evidence a federal judge said last year that authors suing Meta had not presented.
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+35
- Incentives60
- Confidence40
A newly unredacted brief in the New York Times' case quotes a Microsoft director calling AI scraping the largest theft of labor in human history. The underlying exhibits are still sealed, so the quotes arrive without their original context.
Perspective Coverage
6 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 20%
- Operator
- Operator 44%
- Investor
- Investor 36%
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives72
- Confidence64
buildConfirmed5 publishers Discovery quotes unsealed on Thursday have Nick Turley, Greg Brockman and Satya Nadella describing the products as substitutes, while OpenAI and Microsoft have told a Manhattan court that their training does not replace journalism.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 33%
- Operator
- Operator 38%
- Investor
- Investor 29%
Reality
- Evidence72
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives78
- Confidence68
The news publishers' partly unsealed summary judgment motion quotes Microsoft's CEO on substitution and on licensing paywalled training data. Microsoft says he was speaking to broad principles about how people find information, and that his words are not conclusions about copyright.
Perspective Coverage
3 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 25%
- Operator
- Operator 32%
- Investor
- Investor 43%
Reality
- Evidence64
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives80
- Confidence62
Unsealed brief quotes Microsoft's applied science director calling AI training a 'theft of labor'
Redactions came off a 92-page plaintiffs' brief in the consolidated OpenAI copyright case on Thursday. Inside are internal Microsoft and OpenAI documents on substitution, memorised training data and collapsing publisher click-throughs.
Reality
- Evidence70
- Adoption62
- Hype gap+12
- Incentives82
- Confidence60
OpenAI's 550+ Publisher Coalition Grows as Fair-Use Summary Judgment Looms
The coalition suing OpenAI and Microsoft passed 550 publishers this week, and the cost of training data will be settled either by Judge Sidney Stein's fair-use ruling or by private deals struck before it lands.
Reality
- Evidence32
- Adoption35
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives68
- Confidence40
The DOJ's fair use brief tells you who can afford to lose the argument
Washington has filed on the side of fair use in the Times case against OpenAI, and the passage that matters to anyone shipping on scraped text is its estimate of who could still afford to train if licensing won.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+18
- Incentives68
- Confidence45
The $1.5bn is approved. The split now runs through decades of contracts nobody wrote with a copyright settlement in mind, and some educational authors are finding their share set at 10% instead of the 50/50 default.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+8
- Incentives72
- Confidence64