Applied Intuition is fielding offers that value it at $30 billion or more, double its $15 billion valuation of June 2025. Estimated recurring revenue doubled too, so the multiple stays near 36 times.
Perspective Coverage
5 publishers
- Builder
- Builder 19%
- Operator
- Operator 18%
- Investor
- Investor 63%
Reality
- Evidence35
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives
- Not scored
- Confidence55
Draper Associates led a $15.5 million Series A for Mogul at a $126 million valuation. Most of the demand evidence comes from Mogul's own release, so one round is thin support for a call on AI-driven real estate as a sector.
Reality
- Evidence30
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+40
- Incentives70
- Confidence55
An existing Zipline backer is negotiating to lead the round that reprices it at $20bn
Bloomberg reports Zipline is in early talks for about $1bn at roughly $20bn, with Paradigm, a shareholder since March, in line to lead. That is 2.6 times the $7.6bn its Series H set in January.
Reality
- Evidence42
- Adoption52
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives72
- Confidence45
CADDi raised $114 million from eight investors, among them Toyota's Woven Capital and Recruit's HR Tech Fund, at a valuation 2.55 times its March 2025 mark and set against sales its chief executive says are more than doubling each year.
Reality
- Evidence48
- Adoption44
- Hype gap+14
- Incentives74
- Confidence57
Mach's $600m tranche buys roughly the same slice of the company that $300m bought in June
Ribbit, Infinite, Bedrock and Sequoia put $600m into Mach Industries at $3.7bn, three months after $300m at $1.8bn. On those marks the second cheque takes 16.2 per cent of the company and the first took 16.7.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption22
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives68
- Confidence40
TAR sells 12 per cent of itself to fund off-grid power for AI data centres
Spark Capital led a $120 million Series A at a $1 billion post-money valuation, putting TAR at $880 million before the cash arrived. The round discloses no contracted megawatts and no other investors.
Reality
- Evidence34
- Adoption12
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives78
- Confidence46
The floor on Figure's compute commitment is about twice all the equity it has disclosed raising, and the vendor writing that contract now owns a piece of the customer owing it. Whether the $3.5bn is take-or-pay is undisclosed.
Reality
- Evidence46
- Adoption18
- Hype gap+38
- Incentives86
- Confidence62
Conveo's $50M round doubles as a buyer's checklist for AI-moderated research
The company's adoption figures could not be verified and its two public customer counts use definitions that do not match, while a small controlled trial records what an AI moderator misses. Together they describe the evaluation buyers now have to run.
Reality
- Evidence44
- Adoption36
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives74
- Confidence52
Alice raised $140m to red-team the frontier, and a security vendor bought in quietly
The round doubles the company's lifetime funding and sells frontier labs their adversarial testing off the shelf. Bloomberg and the Israeli press named an investor the release did not.
Reality
- Evidence45
- Adoption58
- Hype gap+28
- Incentives76
- Confidence54
EliseAI's $3.7B markup prices the boring layer above its entire software market
A reported $300M round at 68% over August's price values a tenant-texting workflow tool at more than half the property management software market it sells into.
Reality
- Evidence28
- Adoption48
- Hype gap+34
- Incentives66
- Confidence41
Gravis Robotics says its retrofit autonomy kit works on Caterpillar, Deere, JCB and Hitachi machines. The productivity number is still the company's own.
Reality
- Evidence38
- Adoption32
- Hype gap+32
- Incentives72
- Confidence58