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SemiAnalysis

SemiAnalysis is a research firm analyzing semiconductors, AI chips, and datacenter infrastructure, including supply chains and compute buildouts.

Known aliases

  • newsletter.semianalysis.com
  • SemiAnalysis Capital
  • SemiAnalysis China Datacenter Model
  • SemiAnalysis Datacenter Model
  • SemiAnalysis InferenceX

Current stories

investConfirmed23 publishers

At $2 trillion, Anthropic would list at about 30 times its latest quarter annualized

Anthropic told investors its third-quarter revenue reached $16.8 billion and that it turned a profit, the Financial Times reported. At up to $2 trillion, that quarter annualized puts the listing near 30 times sales.

Perspective Coverage

31 publishers
Builder
Builder 10%
Operator
Operator 19%
Investor
Investor 71%

Reality

Evidence66
Adoption78
Hype gap+15
Incentives72
Confidence68
investConfirmed2 publishers

Besi sheds 3% on a patent count that SemiAnalysis says points to an ASML hybrid bonder

Besi shares fell 3% to 158.50 euros after SemiAnalysis read 27 ASML patent filings as evidence of a hybrid bonding tool. ASML has not confirmed the tool, so the market is pricing a patent count.

Perspective Coverage

3 publishers
Builder
Builder 20%
Operator
Operator 22%
Investor
Investor 58%

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence60
buildOne report1 publisher

Terafab's first ASML EUV scanner is reported to arrive before its development fab shell is finished

Terafab will reportedly receive its first ASML EUV scanner in mid-2027, months before SemiAnalysis expects the shell of its development fab to be done. That is about three years ahead of the projected volume date at the Grimes County fab.

Publishers:tomshardware.com

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+10
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

At least half of Nvidia's receivables now sit with five customers

Five customers each held at least 10% of Nvidia's receivables in the July quarter, up from three in January, according to a filing CNBC cited. That puts at least half of what Nvidia is owed with five buyers while the number of firms renting out its chips keeps growing.

Publishers:cnbc.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption65
Hype gap+10
Incentives70
Confidence55
buildOne report1 publisher

SemiAnalysis's facility census puts China's AI-ready datacenter capacity at 24GW

SemiAnalysis counted more than 1,000 Chinese datacenters and puts China's AI-ready capacity at 24GW, against about 56GW in the US. The figure counts halls and power, so how much compute it means depends on whether export-controlled accelerators arrive to fill them.

Publishers:dev.to

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+35
Incentives
Not scored
Confidence35
investConfirmed2 publishers

Trucked gas for Oracle's Project Jupiter would empty a trailer every 40 minutes per 100 MW

Oracle is trucking compressed gas to AI data centers with late pipelines and weighing the same fix for its 2.45 GW Project Jupiter, Bloomberg reported. One analyst puts trucked gas at about four times the cost of pipeline supply, though at Jupiter's scale the number of trailers an hour is the tighter limit.

Publishers:qz.com thenextweb.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption40
Hype gap+5
Incentives50
Confidence60
productOne report1 publisher

CoreWeave says the model loop in its Forge platform should be open to other clouds

CoreWeave has announced Forge, a platform linking model training, inference and evaluation so production results improve models and agents. Buyers comparing AI clouds now have a tooling claim to test next to chip capacity.

Publishers:siliconangle.com

Reality

Evidence30
Adoption15
Hype gap+40
Incentives85
Confidence40
leadershipOne report1 publisher

Same-price Claude plans buy five times OpenAI's mid-tier API usage in SemiAnalysis meter tests

SemiAnalysis tests found same-price Claude plans buy about five times OpenAI's mid-tier API usage after OpenAI halved its $200 plan. Teams weighing seats as old Pro limits expire after October 29 are comparing allowances neither lab publishes.

Publishers:implicator.ai

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+20
Incentives60
Confidence50
investOne report1 publisher

SemiAnalysis estimates Anthropic's subscriptions take over 40% of inference compute for 10% of revenue

Subscriptions cut Anthropic's blended revenue per megawatt by about $36 million while bringing in a tenth of its revenue, SemiAnalysis estimates. Plan limits, set through credit costs the labs can change without notice, decide how much of its compute earns API rates.

Reality

Evidence30
Adoption
Not scored
Hype gap+25
Incentives70
Confidence35
productOne report1 publisher

Clockwork raises $31 million for software that keeps GPU jobs running through hardware failures

Clockwork Systems raised $31 million and launched TorchSnap, a tool that snapshots distributed AI jobs so they can resume after hardware failures. The customer deployments it cites predate the new feature, so its value depends on how long a buyer's own restarts take.

Publishers:siliconangle.com

Reality

Evidence40
Adoption35
Hype gap+30
Incentives70
Confidence45
buildConfirmed4 publishers

DeepSeek's Ascend ports swap a CUDA dependency for Huawei's CANN

DeepSeek open-sourced six software components for Huawei's Ascend AI chips on September 30, porting infrastructure it first built for Nvidia hardware. The ports cut the software bill for leaving CUDA, and The Neuron argues Ascend's case now turns on chip supply, reliability and full-scale model performance.

Perspective Coverage

4 publishers
Builder
Builder 41%
Operator
Operator 24%
Investor
Investor 35%

Reality

Evidence60
Adoption25
Hype gap+30
Incentives70
Confidence60
buildOne report1 publisher

OpenAI pairs its Jalapeño ASIC with AMD Turin to avoid first-generation CPU risk

OpenAI runs its Jalapeño ASIC on AMD EPYC Turin hosts with 1.5TB of memory each, chosen over Nvidia's Vera because Vera is less mature. Richard Ho tied the call to one program's schedule and a first-generation chip, so it says little about x86 against Arm.

Publishers:tomshardware.com

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption30
Hype gap+10
Incentives50
Confidence55
buildOne report1 publisher

OpenAI's hardware head calls Jalapeno's nine months from RTL to tapeout the new baseline

OpenAI took its Jalapeno chip from RTL to tapeout in nine months with its own AI models, against a norm its hardware head puts at 18 to 24 months. The count stops at first tapeout, before a B0 stepping reported to be up to 25% more efficient per watt.

Publishers:tomshardware.com

Reality

Evidence35
Adoption20
Hype gap+35
Incentives65
Confidence40
investConfirmed7 publishers

OpenAI's first chip beat merchant silicon in 16 months. The moat was never the fab

Jalapeno's lead is measured against last generation and the volumes are tiny, but a first-pass ASIC clearing Nvidia, AMD and Google parts reprices the design barrier, not the supply chain.

Perspective Coverage

7 publishers
Builder
Builder 30%
Operator
Operator 24%
Investor
Investor 46%

Reality

Evidence50
Adoption8
Hype gap+40
Incentives65
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

CoreWeave has brought 27% of its contracted power online behind a $66.8bn backlog

CoreWeave's revenue backlog reached $66.8bn at the end of 2025, or 13.4 times the $5bn of revenue it booked for the year. The contracts are conditioned on delivery, and 2.25 GW of its contracted power is not yet live.

Publishers:investors.coreweave.com

Reality

Evidence52
Adoption58
Hype gap+32
Incentives88
Confidence60
buildOne report1 publisher

NVIDIA's 3.7x Vera Rubin figure comes from Qwen3-VL on vLLM and Dynamo

MLPerf Inference v6.1 preview submissions put Vera Rubin NVL72 at up to 3.7x GB300 on Qwen3-VL and up to 2.5x on DeepSeek-R1, on two different inference frameworks. The four-rack 99% scaling result is an offline number.

Reality

Evidence45
Adoption30
Hype gap+35
Incentives85
Confidence55
investOne report1 publisher

Three projects account for all 1,525 megawatts local moratoriums have actually delayed

SemiAnalysis tracked 6,000 sites by satellite and found 20 gigawatts of planned data center capacity inside restricted local boundaries, of which 1.5 is held up. New York's order adds 0.8, for 2.3 against 38 gigawatts due in 2027.

Reality

Evidence55
Adoption72
Hype gap+12
Incentives85
Confidence48

Earlier coverage

  1. Robot makers buy the inference before they sell the robot

    Invest · September 15, 2026 · One report1 publisher

  2. OpenAI's first Jalapeno numbers buy it leverage, not a procurement input

    Build · August 25, 2026 · Confirmed9 publishers

  3. Positron's $875M round lands under four months before Asimov's tapeout target

    Build · September 13, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers

  4. Local consent is becoming the scarce input in data center plans

    Leadership · September 1, 2026 · One report1 publisher

  5. Cerebras moves its product line from the wafer to the rack, and the CS-5 number carries a 2027 date

    Build · August 25, 2026 · Confirmed2 publishers