Anthropic's pre-Thanksgiving IPO would value it at roughly 400 times last year's revenue

At $1.8 trillion, the stock would be priced at about 391 times last year's revenue. At $2 trillion it would be about 435 times ^[16]. Both figures look backward. The Wall Street Journal reported that the November date may have been chosen so Anthropic could share third-quarter financials expected to show strong results ^[13]. Buyers in mid-November will set their price against those numbers.

The loss has two parts. Reuters reported a $42 billion net loss for last year ^[5] and an operating loss of more than $8 billion, a figure that leaves out write-downs of liabilities mostly related to past fundraising ^[7]. Up to about $34 billion of the net loss therefore sits outside operations ^[14]. The projected spending is larger again, at about 113 times last year's revenue ^[18].

There are three ways the case plays out that the listing pulls money out of other AI and tech stocks before Thanksgiving. The date could move: Bloomberg said the company is still considering its plans and the timing could change ^[2]. The float could be small enough that even a $2 trillion valuation draws a modest sum. Or buyers could pay for their allocations by selling other AI holdings in the 17 days between the start of marketing week and Thanksgiving ^[15].

Each percentage point of the company sold is $18 billion to $20 billion of stock ^[17]. The reports do not say how many shares Anthropic plans to sell. Yahoo Finance said a valuation of up to $2 trillion would make it the largest IPO of all time ^[4]. That ranking is by valuation. The cash raised could be far smaller.

I think the attention pull is the safer half of the thesis. The size of the cash pull depends on the share count. The cash-drain view is wrong if the float comes in at one or two points and the large listed AI names hold their prices while the book is open. It holds if the float runs to several points and those names fall during marketing week.

Whoever finds the cash buys into a company whose Founder LLC, made up of the seven co-founders, will focus on stewarding the firm's mission even when it conflicts with market forces, Reuters reported ^[9].