Moonshot and DeepSeek head toward listings at 50 and 163 times revenue
Rhodium Group's tally of Chinese AI model revenue comes to about $10.5 billion against $105 billion for OpenAI and Anthropic. Two of the Chinese startups now heading for listings carry the highest revenue multiples in the set.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Rhodium Group published estimates on Thursday that all of China's AI models combined generate only about 10 percent of the revenue reported for OpenAI and Anthropic, measured on annual recurring revenue.
- DeepSeek's $500 million was the lowest ARR among major Chinese labs, with MiniMax at $800 million and Moonshot at $1 billion, against $40 billion for OpenAI and $65 billion for Anthropic.
- Z.ai told investors on Wednesday that its latest ARR was $1.8 billion and raised its year-end ARR forecast to $3 billion from $2.4 billion.
- Moonshot has reportedly filed confidentially for a Hong Kong IPO and DeepSeek is reportedly preparing a listing; Moonshot said it does not comment on market rumors or speculation.
Why it matters
- What it limits constraint On Rhodium's reading the frontier labs must fund training from equity markets rather than the state programmes that financed chips and servers, so a shut Hong Kong window constrains model roadmaps and not only balance sheets.
- Who has to decide decision Moonshot and DeepSeek have to choose between pricing a listing into a market that has already marked down two listed Chinese AI peers and waiting for another private round at the marks they already hold.
- Who's exposed exposure Because the weights are downloadable, adoption can accrue to third-party hosts, and the 50x and 163x depend on the labs renegotiating terms they do not currently control.
- What doesn't add up contradiction Rhodium works from summer figures while Z.ai has already lifted its year-end target once, so the denominator under every one of these multiples is being restated faster than the research that measures it.
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Rhodium's six lines add to $10.5 billion, and OpenAI's $40 billion plus Anthropic's $65 billion is $105 billion, so the tenth holds to the decimal [26][27][28]. Two of those six lines belong to ByteDance and Alibaba, and between them they are $6.4 billion of the total, or 61 percent [6][37]. The four startups being priced off these numbers share $4.1 billion, which is 3.9 percent of the American pair [38][39].
Invert Rhodium's ratios and you have the prices behind them. Moonshot at 50 times $1 billion is a $50 billion mark; DeepSeek at 163 times $500 million is $81.5 billion [30][31]. The same method puts OpenAI at $1.36 trillion and Anthropic at $1.365 trillion, within $5 billion of each other [32]. Anthropic books 130 times DeepSeek's revenue and carries a multiple 7.8 times smaller [29][33]. Rhodium said valuations relative to revenue "appear exorbitant for Moonshot and DeepSeek at present" [8].
The denominator is the soft part on both sides. ARR as Rhodium describes it is a recent month multiplied by 12 [2], so one good month resets the annual figure for everyone in the table. Z.ai's own guidance shows how fast that moves: $3 billion by December against $1.8 billion now is $250 million a month against $150 million [12][16][34]. If it lands and nobody else changes, the Chinese total is $11.7 billion, or 11.1 percent [35].
Usage and revenue are wired together differently in the two markets. The Chinese models are open, so anyone with capable enough hardware downloads and runs them without the developer, and Rhodium said the labs are exploring ways to take a larger cut from the third parties offering access [17]. US models are mostly closed, and the cost per task for the leading OpenAI and Anthropic models is far higher than for the Chinese ones, according to Artificial Analysis [18].
Logan Wright, the Rhodium partner who wrote the report with research analyst Endeavour Tian [21], said "The financing gap means it will be far more difficult for Chinese frontier AI labs to scale sustainably" [19]. He said government funding "has been helpful on the hardware side of the buildout of compute capacity, but similarly will probably balk at direct funding for the frontier labs" [20]. Rhodium put state-affiliated sources above 60 percent of equity investment into Chinese AI chips and servers [22]. The state money bought machines. The labs raise from the equity market, and Z.ai's Hong Kong shares are back at levels seen this spring after briefly more than tripling over the summer, up more than 5 percent on Thursday morning after a decline earlier in the week that followed news of its second major fundraise in two months [23]. MiniMax has spent recent months struggling to hold above its IPO-day gains [24].
I'd expect the multiple to give before the revenue does, because a Hong Kong buyer can sell and the holders of a private round mostly cannot. The counter sits in the same numbers: 163 times is computed on $500 million, and an eightfold rise in that base takes the ratio to roughly 20 times with the price unchanged [36]. Rhodium could reference only the latest figures available from this summer, and usage of Chinese models has climbed steeply from low levels earlier in the year [11]. Anthropic is reportedly expected to list in the US next month, while OpenAI has pushed its own plans into next year [13]. US tech stocks tumbled after executives of leading American AI companies warned over the weekend about the risks of developing the technology too quickly, and leaders of the major Chinese labs have not commented [25].
What to watch
- A priced Hong Kong deal for Moonshot, which would put a public quote on whether 50 times revenue survives buyers who can sell the next day.
- Any disclosed revenue-share terms between a Chinese lab and the third parties serving its open weights.
- Whether Rhodium's next update revises the American $105 billion faster than the Chinese $10.5 billion.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence55
- Adoption40
- Hype gap+20
- Incentives65
- Confidence60
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
US-based research firm Rhodium Group said in estimates published Thursday that all of China's AI models combined generate only about 10% of the revenue reported for OpenAI and Anthropic.
- [2]
The figures are based on reports using annual recurring revenue (ARR), an industry metric that attempts to capture fast growth by multiplying a recent monthly figure by 12.
- [3]
DeepSeek's ARR was the lowest among major Chinese AI companies at $500 million, according to the Rhodium report.
- [4]
MiniMax's ARR was $800 million, according to the Rhodium report.
- [5]
Moonshot's ARR was $1 billion, according to the Rhodium report.
- [6]
Rhodium put ByteDance's ARR at $4 billion and Alibaba's at $2.4 billion.
- [7]
Rhodium said OpenAI alone generated $40 billion and Anthropic $65 billion.
- [8]
"Valuations relative to revenue appear exorbitant for Moonshot and DeepSeek at present," the Rhodium report said.
- [9]
Rhodium analysts noted estimated valuation-to-revenue ratios of 50x for Moonshot and 163x for DeepSeek.
- [10]
Rhodium's report put the equivalent ratios at 34x for OpenAI and 21x for Anthropic.
- [11]
The Rhodium analysis could reference only the latest available figures from this summer, and usage of Chinese AI models has skyrocketed from low levels earlier this year.
- [12]
Z.ai told investors on Wednesday that its latest ARR was $1.8 billion, according to a transcript seen by CNBC.
- [13]
Anthropic is reportedly expected to list in the U.S. next month, while OpenAI has pushed its IPO plans to next year.
- [14]
Moonshot has reportedly filed confidentially for a Hong Kong IPO, and DeepSeek is also reportedly preparing for a listing.
- [15]
Asked about the confidential filing, Moonshot said it does not comment on market rumors or speculation; DeepSeek and Anthropic did not respond to a request for comment.
- [16]
Z.ai said on Wednesday it now expects its ARR by the end of the year to reach $3 billion, up from a previous forecast of $2.4 billion.
- [17]
Rhodium said Chinese AI labs are exploring ways to get a larger cut of revenue from third parties offering access to the models, whose open-source nature allows anyone with sufficiently capable hardware to download and run them independently of the developer.
- [18]
US models are mostly closed, and the cost per task for leading AI models from OpenAI and Anthropic is far higher than that of Chinese models, according to AI-comparison firm Artificial Analysis.
- [19]
"The financing gap means it will be far more difficult for Chinese frontier AI labs to scale sustainably," Logan Wright, partner at Rhodium Group, said in a statement to CNBC.
- [20]
Wright said: "Government funding has been helpful on the hardware side of the buildout of compute capacity, but similarly will probably balk at direct funding for the frontier labs."
- [21]
Logan Wright is a partner at Rhodium Group and co-authored the report with research analyst Endeavour Tian.
- [22]
Rhodium estimated more than 60% of equity investment in Chinese AI chips and servers came from state-affiliated sources.
- [23]
Z.ai shares rose more than 5% in Thursday morning trading, recovering from a decline earlier in the week following news of its second major fundraise in two months; the Hong Kong-traded stock has tumbled to levels seen this spring after briefly more than tripling in price over the summer.
- [24]
Shares of rival MiniMax have struggled in recent months to hold above their IPO-day gains, after spiking in the spring.
- [25]
US tech stocks tumbled after executives of leading American AI companies warned over the weekend about risks from developing the technology too quickly; leaders of major Chinese AI labs have not yet commented.
- [26]
The six Chinese ARR figures Rhodium named sum to $10.5 billion.
- [27]
OpenAI and Anthropic together account for $105 billion of revenue on Rhodium's figures.
- [28]
$10.5 billion is 10.0 percent of $105 billion.
- [29]
Anthropic's revenue is 130 times DeepSeek's.
- [30]
Moonshot's 50x ratio on $1 billion of ARR implies a $50 billion valuation.
- [31]
DeepSeek's 163x ratio on $500 million of ARR implies an $81.5 billion valuation.
- [32]
OpenAI's 34x on $40 billion implies $1.36 trillion and Anthropic's 21x on $65 billion implies $1.365 trillion, a difference of $5 billion.
- [33]
DeepSeek's 163x ratio is 7.8 times Anthropic's 21x.
- [34]
A $3 billion ARR implies $250 million of monthly revenue, against $150 million at $1.8 billion.
- [35]
If Z.ai reaches $3 billion and the other five figures hold, the Chinese total is $11.7 billion, or 11.1 percent of $105 billion.
- [36]
An eightfold rise in DeepSeek's ARR to $4 billion would cut a 163x ratio to about 20x at an unchanged price.
- [37]
ByteDance and Alibaba are $6.4 billion of the $10.5 billion Chinese total, or 61 percent.
- [38]
DeepSeek, MiniMax, Moonshot and Z.ai together account for $4.1 billion of ARR.
- [39]
The four Chinese startups' $4.1 billion is 3.9 percent of OpenAI and Anthropic's $105 billion.
Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- cnbc.comOpenAI and Anthropic are making 10 times more revenue than all Chinese AI models combined, research group Rhodium says
1 article · September 17, 2026
- scmp.comTop Chinese AI models make 10% of OpenAI, Anthropic revenue despite high valuations: report
1 article · September 18, 2026
Topics and entities
Topics
- Open-Weight Model Publishing
- AI model revenue
- China AI Industry
- AI valuations and revenue projections
- AI listings and IPOs