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OpenAI's $50 Billion Revenue Figure Reported as Oracle, AMD and TSMC Shares Fall

OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue was about $50 billion at the end of September, short of the $68 billion to $70 billion reported last month. Oracle and OpenAI's chip suppliers fell 3% to 6% on Thursday on the strength of a private company's investor deck.

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What happened

  • A person familiar with the matter told CNBC that the $68 billion figure counted gross revenue from OpenAI's partners, to allow a closer comparison with Anthropic.
  • Yahoo Finance, citing the FT, said investors built the larger number by adding OpenAI's reported 70% growth to their own $40 billion estimate for August.
  • OpenAI is in early talks on a new round of around $30 billion, with no term sheet, after closing a $122 billion round in March.

Why it matters

  • What it costs cost Measured against $50 billion, OpenAI's $852 billion valuation is 17 times annualized revenue instead of 12.5 times, a steeper multiple for backers of the roughly $30 billion round.
  • What doesn't add up contradiction Dow Jones's account of the FT puts the $70 billion figure in OpenAI's own investor materials while Yahoo's blames investor modelling, so it is unsettled whose credibility took the damage.
  • Who's exposed exposure With Sam Altman ruling out a 2026 listing, Oracle, AMD, Broadcom and TSMC shareholders will keep pricing their exposure to OpenAI off investor decks relayed by unnamed sources.

Next story · Leadership · Oct 9

Cloud-partner counting rules open a $20bn gap in OpenAI's revenue forecast

Confirmed6 publishers

Yahoo Finance's account of the FT story builds the larger figure from two inputs [25]. Investors estimated that OpenAI's sales had reached a $40 billion annual pace in August. They then applied the 70% growth OpenAI later reported [25]. Grown by 70%, $40 billion becomes $68 billion [26]. The growth, though, was measured from the start of the third quarter [15], so stacking it on an August base counts part of the quarter twice. Run backward from $50 billion, the 77% third-quarter growth in the latest presentation implies a run rate of about $28 billion when the quarter opened [14][21].

CNBC's source described another construction. In that version the $68 billion included gross revenue from OpenAI's partners, so it could be set beside Anthropic's figure [3]. The reports also split on authorship. The FT, as relayed by Dow Jones, said information OpenAI itself shared with investors last month indicated roughly $70 billion [2]. Yahoo's version of the same story calls the swing an investor miscalculation [25]. OpenAI declined to comment to the FT [8].

The selling was uneven. By midday Celestica was down 5.9%, Oracle 4.9% and Micron 4.3% [5][6]. Broadcom, which is collaborating with OpenAI on a custom chip, lost 3.2% [6]. Microsoft slipped 1.2% [5]. The Nasdaq was off 1.4% in afternoon trading, with oil and Treasury yields also weighing [7]. The readings come from different hours, but on them Microsoft moved with the index while Celestica fell about four times as far [19].

OpenAI's backers also have its 2025 accounts. The company lost $38.5 billion that year on $13.07 billion of revenue, about $2.95 for each dollar sold [16][23]. It is in early talks on a round of around $30 billion with no term sheet, after closing $122 billion in March [11]. Chief financial officer Sarah Friar told CNBC last week that OpenAI is still "very well capitalized" [12].

The record supports more than one outcome. I think the likeliest is that only a definition changed: the $18 billion between $68 billion and $50 billion is what counting partner revenue at gross added, and Quartz, relaying CNBC, said no sales were lost [17][4]. A second reading has OpenAI handing investors the $70 billion figure itself, as the Dow Jones account has it [2]. In that case the cost shows up in the terms of the next round. The third is worst for OpenAI. Yahoo set OpenAI's $50 billion against Anthropic's $65 billion, a $15 billion deficit, while noting the two firms calculate annualized revenue differently [13][22]. If Anthropic counts gross, as CNBC's source implied, OpenAI's comparable $68 billion leads by $3 billion [3][20].

Yahoo Finance said Anthropic's public S-1 is expected any day, with a listing rumored before Thanksgiving [18]. It is the first public document that can show which basis Anthropic uses. If its $65 billion turns out to be net of partners, Thursday's selloff priced a real competitive gap and the first reading is wrong.

What to watch

  • Terms of OpenAI's roughly $30 billion round once a term sheet exists, and whether it holds the $852 billion valuation.
  • Whether Celestica, Oracle and Micron close their gap to the Nasdaq before OpenAI shares another revenue figure.
  • Whether OpenAI's public prospectus for a 2027 listing reports run rate with partner revenue counted at gross or net.

Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.

Clarity's read

What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.

Reality

Evidence58
Adoption70
Hype gap+40
Incentives70
Confidence60

Perspective Coverage

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Operator
Operator 12%
Investor
Investor 77%
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  1. [1]

    The Financial Times reported that OpenAI said its revenues were approaching $50 billion on an annualized basis toward the end of last month, citing financial documents shared with investors.

    Reported Supported Source: Financial Times via Dow Jones/MorningstarView cited source
  2. [2]

    Earlier information OpenAI shared with investors last month indicated roughly $70 billion in annualized revenue, the FT reported; the discrepancy stemmed from OpenAI's effort to produce a figure comparable with Anthropic's, according to a person familiar with the matter.

    Reported Supported Source: Financial Times via Dow Jones/MorningstarView cited source
  3. [3]

    OpenAI told investors it hit roughly $50 billion in annualized revenue at the end of September, CNBC confirmed, lower than the $68 billion figure widely reported late last month; a person familiar said the $68 billion included gross revenue from OpenAI's partners, which helps investors make a more direct comparison with Anthropic.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBC, citing a person familiar with the matterView cited source
  4. [4]

    The discrepancy between the two revenue figures does not reflect a loss of sales.

    Reported Supported Source: Quartz, citing CNBCView cited source
  5. [5]

    At midday Thursday Oracle shares were down 4.9% at $136.50, Microsoft down 1.2% at $523.29 and Micron down 4.3%.

    Reported Supported Source: Dow Jones/MorningstarView cited source
  6. [6]

    Celestica fell 5.9% to $349.69, AMD 3.3% to $624.65, Broadcom, which is collaborating with OpenAI on a custom chip, 3.2% to $364.58, and TSMC 3.3% to $456.79.

    Reported Supported Source: Dow Jones/MorningstarView cited source
  7. [7]

    The Nasdaq was down 1.4% in afternoon trading Thursday, with rising oil prices and Treasury yields also weighing on stocks.

    Reported Supported Source: QuartzView cited source
  8. [8]

    OpenAI declined to comment to the Financial Times.

    Reported Supported Source: Dow Jones/MorningstarView cited source
  9. [9]

    OpenAI's valuation is $852 billion; it confidentially filed its prospectus with regulators in June and executives have signaled a 2027 debut.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  10. [10]

    Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman has ruled out a 2026 listing.

    Reported Supported Source: Quartz, citing CNBCView cited source
  11. [11]

    OpenAI is in early-stage discussions about a new round that could raise around $30 billion, a figure that could change; no term sheet has been finalized; OpenAI closed a $122 billion round in March.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  12. [12]

    CFO Sarah Friar told CNBC last week that OpenAI is still "very well capitalized."

    Reported Supported Source: CNBCView cited source
  13. [13]

    At $50 billion, OpenAI's annualized revenue would fall below Anthropic's $65 billion in annualized sales; OpenAI and Anthropic calculate annualized revenue differently.

    Reported Supported Source: Yahoo FinanceView cited source
  14. [14]

    OpenAI's investor presentation touted 77% total run rate growth during its third quarter and 107% run rate growth for its enterprise business.

    Reported Supported Source: CNBC, citing a person familiar with the presentationView cited source
  15. [15]

    OpenAI told investors late last month that its annualized revenue run rate had climbed by more than 70% since the third quarter began.

    Reported Supported Source: QuartzView cited source
  16. [16]

    OpenAI posted a net loss of $38.5 billion in 2025 on $13.07 billion in revenue.

    Reported Supported Source: QuartzView cited source
  17. [17]

    The gap to $50 billion is $18 billion from the $68 billion figure and $20 billion from the $70 billion figure.

    Derived Supported
  18. [18]

    Anthropic is rumored to list before Thanksgiving, with its public S-1 prospectus expected any day.

    Reported Supported Source: Yahoo FinanceView cited source
  19. [19]

    Celestica's 5.9% midday fall was about 4.2 times the Nasdaq's 1.4% afternoon decline, while Microsoft's 1.2% fall was close to the index move; the readings were taken at different times.

    Derived Supported
  20. [20]

    On the gross basis, OpenAI's $68 billion exceeds Anthropic's $65 billion by $3 billion.

    Derived Supported
  21. [21]

    A $50 billion run rate after 77% growth in the quarter implies a run rate of about $28 billion at the start of the third quarter.

    Derived Supported
  22. [22]

    At $50 billion, OpenAI trails Anthropic's $65 billion by $15 billion.

    Derived Supported
  23. [23]

    OpenAI lost about $2.95 for each dollar of 2025 revenue.

    Derived Supported
  24. [24]

    OpenAI's $852 billion valuation is about 17 times a $50 billion run rate and about 12.5 times a $68 billion run rate.

    Derived Supported
  25. [25]

    According to the FT as reported by Yahoo Finance, the swing resulted from investor miscalculations: investors tried to determine whether OpenAI's sales reached $40 billion in August, then added OpenAI's reported 70% growth to that estimate and landed on $70 billion.

    Reported Contested Source: Yahoo Finance, citing the Financial TimesView cited source
  26. [26]

    A $40 billion run rate grown by 70% equals $68 billion.

    Derived Contested

Sources

24 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.

  1. 247wallst.com

    2 articles · October 9, 2026

    CoreWeave Sinks 7% as Financed AI Buildout Names Sell Off Apart From Cloud Software; Nebius Drops 6%, Oracle Falls 5% - 24/7 Wall St.
  2. benzinga.com

    1 article · October 8, 2026

    OpenAI ARR Snafu Highlights Flawed Metric - Benzinga
  3. businesstimes.com.sg

    1 article · October 8, 2026

    OpenAI annualised revenue closer to US$50 billion than reported US$70 billion: FT - The Business Times
  4. cnbc.com

    1 article · October 8, 2026

    Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and other AI stocks sink on OpenAI revenue report
  5. cryptobriefing.com

    8 articles · October 12, 2026

    OpenAI revenue claim puts a $20 billion question mark on AI’s growth story
  6. cryptopolitan.com

    1 article · October 8, 2026

    OpenAI’s annual revenue predictions crash by $20B ahead of IPO
  7. dev.to

    3 articles · October 11, 2026

    OpenAI annualised revenues $20B less than previously signalled
  8. economictimes.indiatimes.com

    1 article · October 8, 2026

    OpenAI revenue: OpenAI's September annualized revenue nears $50 billion, less than previously indicated - The Economic Times
  9. en.sedaily.com

    1 article · October 8, 2026

    OpenAI Annualized Revenue Nears $50 Billion, Far Below $70 Billion Estimate
  10. euronews.com

    1 article · October 9, 2026

    What happened to OpenAI’s $20bn? Revenue scare rattles AI trade | Euronews
  11. finance.yahoo.com

    8 articles · October 11, 2026

    OpenAI annualised revenues $20bn less than previously signalled
  12. fool.com

    2 articles · October 11, 2026

    Why Broadcom Stock Took a Dive Today | The Motley Fool
  13. forkast.news

    1 article · October 9, 2026

    OpenAI’s Revenue Appears $20 Billion Lighter Than Reported — and the Gap Is Accounting, Not Demand – Forkast
  14. futurism.com

    1 article · October 9, 2026

    AI Bubble Teetering on the Brink as OpenAI Admits to Massive Financial Failure
  15. hindustantimes.com

    1 article · October 8, 2026

    Why is OpenAI's annualized revenue $20 billion below earlier estimates? | Business News
  16. marketscreener.com

    1 article · October 9, 2026

    the Financial Times, as reported by Reuters
  17. mashable.com

    1 article · October 9, 2026

    OpenAI to bring in $20 billion less than previously expected | Mashable
  18. mezha.net

    2 articles · October 8, 2026

    OpenAI має річний темп доходів близько $50 млрд, а не $70 млрд
  19. morningstar.com

    2 articles · October 8, 2026

    Oracle, AMD, Others Slide After Report of Revision to OpenAI Revenue Estimate | Morningstar
  20. proactiveinvestors.com

    1 article · October 9, 2026

    OpenAI revenue figures rattled tech stocks, but analysts see AI demand holding firm
  21. pymnts.com

    1 article · October 9, 2026

    OpenAI Projects $20 Billion Jump in Annualized Revenue Before Year End
  22. qz.com

    2 articles · October 9, 2026

    OpenAI says its annualized revenue is $50 billion, not $68 billion
  23. semafor.com

    1 article · October 9, 2026

    OpenAI tries to reassure investors with annualized revenue target
  24. siliconangle.com

    2 articles · October 8, 2026

    AI stocks crumble on report that OpenAI’s annualized revenue is much lower than believed
  25. straitstimes.com

    1 article · October 8, 2026

    OpenAI’s annualised revenue US$20 billion less than previously signalled: Report | The Straits Times
  26. techcrunch.com

    2 articles · October 8, 2026

    OpenAI's revenue is reportedly $20 billion less than previously projected | TechCrunch
  27. techstrong.ai

    1 article · October 9, 2026

    OpenAI’s $20 Billion Revenue Discrepancy Rattles Markets as AI Industry Valuation Faces Scrutiny: Report - Techstrong.ai
  28. the-decoder.com

    1 article · October 9, 2026

    OpenAI revenue keeps surging as company seeks $30 billion in fresh capital

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