Investors open talks that value OpenAI 20% above the IPO it postponed
The Financial Times says the suggestion came from investors: $1.2 trillion, 41% above the round OpenAI closed in March and 1,200 times the annualized advertising revenue it disclosed last month. The talks are early.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- The Financial Times reported on the 15th, citing sources, that OpenAI is considering additional fundraising at a target valuation of $1.2 trillion ahead of an initial public offering.
- Altman said on the 12th that a listing before 2027 was unlikely, after OpenAI pushed into next year an offering it had aimed to price at $1 trillion this year.
- Axios reported on the 14th that Anthropic, the loudest advocate of slowing AI development, remains likely to go public this year.
Why it matters
- What doesn't add up contradiction One company cites existential risk to defer its listing while the company that argues hardest for slowing down heads to a public market this year. Both behaviours cannot be sincere responses to the same risk.
- What it limits constraint Anyone entering at $1.2 trillion needs an eventual public price above the $1 trillion OpenAI was ready to accept this year. That 20% cushion has to be earned before a listing Altman has put past 2026.
- What it costs cost ChatGPT's free tier becomes ad inventory to cover the compute bill, and the users who pay nothing carry labeled brand boxes under their answers.
- Who's exposed exposure With the IPO deferred, the next mark on every existing holder's stake is set by a buyer group that opened the conversation itself. Nothing public tests that price until OpenAI lists.
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A $1.2 trillion target against the $852 billion valuation of March is a 40.8% markup in roughly six months [1][2][20]. The comparison I find more useful runs against the public market: OpenAI was prepared to list this year at $1 trillion, so the private talks price it 20% above the offering it postponed [3][21].
March's round took in $122 billion, or 14.3% of the valuation it was raised at [2][12]. That is a lot of cash to have absorbed six months before asking for more. The only revenue figure in the report is advertising, where OpenAI said last month it was on pace for $1 billion annualized [13]; total revenue is not disclosed. Against $1.2 trillion, that line is paid 1,200 times over [14].
Ads began as a February test for some U.S. ChatGPT users, labeled brand boxes beneath AI-generated answers, and seven months later they run in more than 50 countries [15]. Dan Salmon, an analyst at New Street Research, said the pace of the rollout was "impressive and unprecedented" [16]. Altman had called the combination of advertising and artificial intelligence "uniquely unsettling" and then relented under monetization pressure [17]. The report attributes the reversal to soaring computing costs and the need to keep ChatGPT's free tier running [18]. Former Meta employees have been hired to build the business out [19].
The critique on the other side is that the safety talk is competitive positioning [11]. Aidan Gomez, chief executive of Cohere, wrote in a commentary on the 13th that market-dominant Silicon Valley AI firms are demanding the authority to rewrite the rules of competition in their own favor. He called it "a wolf in sheep's clothing" and "a cartel by another name" [8][9]. Yahoo Finance said Amodei and Altman had spent two years packaging the technology as a money-printing machine, and that the lack of safeguards around AI was entirely their responsibility [10].
In my view the caution and the raise are consistent. Postponing the listing removes the daily public price. A private round hands existing holders a 40.8% higher mark, set by a group of buyers who chose to be there, and Altman said on the 12th that a listing before 2027 was unlikely [4][20]. Two other readings fit the same facts. Demand may be exactly what it looks like, since the sources told the FT that the talks began at the investors' suggestion [23]. Or nothing closes at this number: the discussions are early and their timing depends on when OpenAI goes public [22].
Whether $1.2 trillion becomes the figure other AI investors underwrite against is a separate question, and the evidence here is one company's early-stage conversations. If the round goes ahead, it would be the first time OpenAI is valued above $1 trillion [6].
What to watch
- The price at which Anthropic lists, if it lists this year, since that is the first public multiple for a frontier lab.
- Whether OpenAI discloses a total revenue figure alongside the $1 billion advertising run rate.
- Whether the round closes at $1.2 trillion, below it, or not at all once IPO timing firms up.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence50
- Adoption55
- Hype gap+30
- Incentives65
- Confidence55
Perspective Coverage
8 publishers- Builder
- Builder 9%
- Operator
- Operator 18%
- Investor
- Investor 73%
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
The Financial Times reported on the 15th, citing sources, that OpenAI is considering additional fundraising at a target valuation of $1.2 trillion ahead of an initial public offering.
- [2]
In March, OpenAI raised $122 billion at a valuation of $852 billion.
- [3]
OpenAI had originally aimed to list this year at a valuation of $1 trillion, but has delayed the offering until next year amid growing concern about the risks of rapid AI advances.
- [4]
Chief Executive Sam Altman said on the 12th that a listing before 2027 was unlikely.
- [5]
Altman added that pushing ahead with an IPO would be an unwise decision at a time of mounting concern about the existential risks AI could bring.
- [6]
If the new round goes ahead, it would be the first time OpenAI is valued above $1 trillion.
- [7]
Axios reported on the 14th, citing multiple sources, that Anthropic, the most vocal advocate of slowing AI development, remains likely to go public this year despite the sudden prominence of AI safety concerns.
- [8]
Aidan Gomez, chief executive of the Canadian AI startup Cohere, asked in a commentary on the 13th whether the world should let a handful of market-dominant Silicon Valley AI companies define the rules and safety standards for an era-defining technology, and wrote that these oligopolistic firms are now demanding the authority to rewrite the rules of competition in their own favor.
- [9]
Gomez called it a wolf in sheep's clothing and a cartel by another name.
- [10]
Yahoo Finance said that over the past two years Anthropic's Dario Amodei and Altman had worked to attract more money by packaging the technology as a money-printing machine, and that the lack of safeguards around AI and lawmakers' failure to grasp its risks were entirely their responsibility.
- [11]
Critics have already argued that the AI industry's calls for caution are an attempt by big AI companies to protect their own interests.
- [12]
The $122 billion raised in March equals 14.3% of the $852 billion valuation at which it was raised.
- [13]
OpenAI said last month it was on pace to reach $1 billion in annualized advertising revenue.
- [14]
A $1.2 trillion valuation is 1,200 times the $1 billion annualized advertising revenue run rate OpenAI disclosed last month.
- [15]
OpenAI began testing ads in February for some U.S.-based ChatGPT users, displaying labeled boxes for relevant brands beneath AI-generated answers, and the service is now available in more than 50 countries seven months after launch.
- [16]
Dan Salmon, an analyst at New Street Research, said the pace of OpenAI's advertising rollout was "impressive and unprecedented."
- [17]
Altman once called the combination of advertising and artificial intelligence "uniquely unsettling," but ultimately relented in the face of monetization pressure.
- [18]
Faced with soaring computing costs and the need to keep ChatGPT's free tier running, OpenAI is moving aggressively into advertising.
- [19]
OpenAI has hired a series of former Meta employees to strengthen its advertising business.
- [20]
A $1.2 trillion target is a 40.8% markup on the $852 billion valuation of the March round, about six calendar months earlier.
- [21]
The $1.2 trillion target prices OpenAI 20% above the $1 trillion valuation at which it had planned to list this year.
- [22]
The discussions remain at an early stage, and the timing of any fundraising depends on when OpenAI goes public, the sources said.
- [23]
The talks are said to have begun at the suggestion of investors rather than OpenAI itself.
Sources
7 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
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