Bitcoin futures open interest grows $2.3 billion in the payroll rally past $87,000
Bitcoin briefly crossed $87,000 on Oct. 2 after US employers added just 29,000 jobs in September against about 90,000 expected. Traders added roughly $2.3 billion of futures positions during the climb, so more leverage now rides on the Fed's Oct. 28 decision.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- August payroll growth was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%.
- Short liquidations topped $120 million over 24 hours as bitcoin moved through $85,000, according to CoinGlass data.
- US spot bitcoin ETFs took in $2.39 billion between Sept. 21 and Sept. 25, with net inflows in all five sessions.
- Bitcoin traded around $86,300 at press time, according to CoinGecko, after trading below $84,000 earlier in the day.
Why it matters
- What it limits constraint Hike odds now have less than half as far to fall as they fell last week, so a fully priced October hold leaves bitcoin less rate relief to trade on.
- Who's exposed exposure A hike on Oct. 28 would hit a futures book that grew during the rally, and the forced closing that pushed shorts out can work against the newly opened positions the same way.
- What doesn't add up contradiction Bloomberg's account has Fed officials still weighing when to raise rates again, so the payroll miss that crypto.news reads as support for an October pause buys bitcoin one meeting of relief at most.
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Crypto liquidations hit $948 million as Bitcoin dips under $80,000 after hot PPI data, 90.6% of them longsConfirmed13 publishers
Most of the rate relief bitcoin is trading on had already arrived before the jobs report. CME's hike odds fell 40 points over the preceding week and 6 points on the day the data came out [26]. Polymarket showed the same pattern, with October hike odds at 23% by Oct. 1 against roughly 70% a week before [25]. Bitcoin had started rising before the payroll numbers were published, crypto.news reported [6]. Earlier in the week the coin traded around $83,500 with the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.20% [7]. After the release, yields and the dollar both fell [10].
The labor data is weaker than its headline. The August revision alone removed 29,000 jobs, the same number September added [19], and Crypto Briefing put the combined cut to July and August at 60,000 [4]. (The two crypto outlets differ by a thousand jobs on the consensus, 90,000 against 89,000 [1][4].) Bloomberg's account, carried by the Korea Herald, left room for more tightening. It said unemployment rose partly because the workforce grew, with participation at a four-month high of 61.8% [15]. With joblessness still historically low, it added, Fed officials can keep their attention on inflation as they consider when to raise rates again [9]. An October hold would be a pause after a 25 basis point increase in September to a range of 3.75% to 4% [8].
The futures book grew on the way up. The open interest added during the move was about 19 times the short liquidations CoinGlass recorded [23], and crypto.news described it as traders opening new positions while existing shorts were being closed [17]. September's rally had the same shape. Open interest climbed while apparent spot demand fell by roughly 170,000 BTC over 30 days, according to CryptoQuant [18], and the price topped out near $87,400 before sliding toward $83,000 on Sept. 29 [11].
Spot buyers kept adding, more slowly each day. Daily ETF inflows in the week to Sept. 25 went from $999 million on Monday to $134.5 million on Friday [13], so the last session brought in about 13% of the first [20].
"Weak print strengthens the no October hike scenario, but weak is not automatically bullish: soft-but-orderly supports the liquidity trade, a growth scare pulls risk assets, Bitcoin potentially included. Liquidity stays the driver either way," said Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank [22]. In his first case, an orderly labor market and a hold on Oct. 28, the next levels crypto.news identified are resistance near $87,500 and then $90,000 [5]. In his second, bitcoin may fall with other risk assets. The third case is a hike anyway, an outcome the market has marked down sharply but not removed [24].
I think the hold is mostly in the price, and the next leg depends on spot buyers. At press time bitcoin sat roughly $1,100 under its September high [21], a level it last reached on rising leverage and falling spot demand [18]. The view is wrong if bitcoin clears $87,500 while ETF inflows pick up and open interest stays flat, because that combination would put spot money behind the rally [5].
What to watch
- The Fed's Oct. 27-28 meeting, where CME FedWatch put the probability of a hold at about 82%, up from about 36% a week earlier.
- The 10-year Treasury yield's path back toward the 5.20% level that coincided with bitcoin's dip to around $83,500 earlier in the week.
- CryptoQuant's next read on apparent spot demand, after the roughly 170,000 BTC decline it measured over 30 days in September.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence60
- Adoption
- Not scored
- Hype gap+25
- Incentives40
- Confidence62
Perspective Coverage
13 publishers- Builder
- Builder 0%
- Operator
- Operator 21%
- Investor
- Investor 79%
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
US nonfarm payrolls rose by 29,000 in September, far below the 90,000 jobs expected by economists.
- [2]
Bitcoin climbed roughly 3% and briefly crossed $87,000 on Oct. 2 as weak US jobs data reinforced expectations for an October Federal Reserve pause.
- [3]
Unemployment rose to 4.2% from 4.1%, while August payroll growth was revised down to 133,000 from an initially reported 162,000.
- [4]
Economists had forecast an 89,000 increase in September payrolls, and downward revisions reduced combined July and August employment gains by 60,000.
- [5]
Bitcoin faces resistance around $87,500, while $90,000 is the next major psychological level if buyers push through recent highs.
- [6]
Bitcoin had already started moving higher before the employment report.
- [7]
Earlier in the week Bitcoin traded around $83,500 while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 5.20%.
- [8]
The Fed raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4% in September; its next meeting is Oct. 27 to Oct. 28.
- [9]
With unemployment still historically low, Federal Reserve officials can keep their attention focused on inflation as they consider when to raise interest rates again.
- [10]
S&P 500 futures rose following the release, while Treasury yields and the dollar declined.
- [11]
Bitcoin fell toward $83,000 on Sept. 29 after reaching around $87,400 earlier in the month.
- [12]
US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $2.39 billion between Sept. 21 and Sept. 25, recording net inflows in all five trading sessions.
- [13]
Daily spot Bitcoin ETF inflows were $999 million on Monday and $714.7 million on Tuesday, then eased to $346.9 million, $190.7 million and $134.5 million over the following three sessions.
- [14]
According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin traded around $86,300 at press time after an intraday high above $87,000, recovering from levels below $84,000 earlier in the day.
- [15]
The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, partly reflecting a growing workforce; the participation rate rose to a four-month high of 61.8% in September.
- [16]
Bitcoin short liquidations topped $120 million over 24 hours as BTC moved through $85,000, according to CoinGlass data cited in market reports.
- [17]
Futures open interest rose by roughly $2.3 billion during the move, showing traders were putting new positions into the market while existing shorts were being closed.
- [18]
A CryptoQuant Bull Score analysis showed futures open interest rose during September's rally even as apparent spot demand weakened by roughly 170,000 BTC over 30 days.
- [19]
The August payroll revision removed 29,000 jobs, equal to September's entire 29,000 gain.
- [20]
Friday's spot ETF inflow was about 13% of Monday's.
- [21]
At press time Bitcoin was about $1,100 below its September high.
- [22]
"Weak print strengthens the no October hike scenario, but weak is not automatically bullish: soft-but-orderly supports the liquidity trade, a growth scare pulls risk assets, Bitcoin potentially included. Liquidity stays the driver either way."
- [23]
The roughly $2.3 billion net rise in futures open interest was about 19 times the $120 million of short liquidations.
- [24]
Per CME FedWatch, the probability of a hold at the Oct. 28 meeting rose to about 82% from about 36% a week earlier; odds of a quarter-point hike fell to about 18% from 64% a week ago and 24% a day earlier.
- [25]
October rate hike odds had dropped to 23% on Polymarket by Oct. 1, compared with roughly 70% a week earlier.
- [26]
CME hike odds fell 40 points in the week before the jobs report and 6 points on the day of the report.
- [27]
With hike odds at about 18%, further declines are capped at 18 points, less than half the 40-point drop of the preceding week.
Sources
13 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- americanbanker.comHiring slows down significantly in September
1 article · October 2, 2026
- channelnewsasia.comUS job growth slows sharply in September; unemployment rate rises to 4.2%
1 article · October 2, 2026
- coindesk.comU.S. added just 29,000 jobs in September, with unemployment rate rising to 4.2%
1 article · October 2, 2026
- cointelegraph.comBitcoin briefly hits $87K as weak US jobs data sends bond yields lower
1 article · October 2, 2026
- crypto.newsUS payrolls rise just 29,000 in September, can Bitcoin price rally?
2 articles · October 2, 2026
- cryptobriefing.comBitcoin rises as weak jobs data dims October hike odds
1 article · October 2, 2026
- decrypt.coBitcoin Heads Higher on Macro Moves: Where Does BTC Go Next?
1 article · October 2, 2026
- koreaherald.comUS firms add just 29,000 Jobs, unemployment rate ticks up
1 article · October 2, 2026
- qz.comTreasury yields sink after weak September jobs report dims October Fed hike odds
1 article · October 2, 2026
- scmp.comUS job growth slows sharply in September, unemployment rises
1 article · October 2, 2026
- seekingalpha.comSoft September Jobs Report Lifts Stocks And Bonds, Fed Hike Odds Plunge
9 articles · October 6, 2026
- semafor.comUS adds 29,000 jobs in September, far short of expectations
1 article · October 2, 2026
- wolfstreet.comPrivate Sector Employers Created 46,000 Jobs, Governments Shed 17,000 Jobs
1 article · October 2, 2026
Topics and entities
Topics
- Federal Reserve Policy
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs
- U.S. Labor Market
- Bitcoin derivatives
- Treasury Yields