Trump's 24-cent red diesel tax break lands on a stockpile at a record seasonal low

Red diesel is chemically identical to on-road diesel and comes out of the same national stockpile ^[2][9]. Letting pickups use it changes which gallons carry the 24-cent excise. Bloomberg reported that the plan is not expected to raise overall supply ^[10]. "Refiners and fuel sellers are likely to absorb almost all of the added benefit," a Bloomberg expert said, in a quote Semafor ran without the expert's name ^[15].

The first possible outcome is the one the expert describes. The national average barely moves, and the 24 cents shows up as wider margins for refiners and retailers. The second is full pass-through, which would take about 3.8% off Sunday's $6.32 average (0.24 divided by 6.32 is 0.038) ^[13]. That needs sellers with fuel to spare, and the stockpile is at a record seasonal low ^[9]. The third is that the effect cannot be measured at all. The G7 agreed on Friday to release emergency stocks ^[7], so any fall in price after the order will have two causes. The average has also already dropped 21 cents from last month's $6.53 peak without any change in tax ^[12].

I think the first outcome is the most likely, because the order does not change how much diesel is in storage. Even full pass-through would leave most of the rise since the attacks on Iran in place. Retail diesel is $2.56 a gallon above the $3.76 drivers paid on Feb. 28 ^[11], and 24 cents is about 9% of that increase ^[14].

The stock release is the part of the package that adds fuel. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins wrote on social media that Trump "is taking action to deliver short-term relief for farmers and ranchers, including prioritizing diesel in the release of 100 million barrels of crude oil" ^[6]. I would be wrong if the national average falls by close to 24 cents within weeks of the order while stocks are still at their seasonal low. A fall that size would show that sellers had spare fuel to compete with after all.