Visa's survey puts Asia Pacific stablecoin intent at nearly three times last year's use

Stated intent runs at about 2.9 times last year's use ^[21]. The gap is 30 percentage points ^[20]. Suppose every respondent who explained stablecoins correctly was also a past-year user. At least 10 points of the 16% would still have used the tokens without that understanding ^[22], so at least five in eight past-year users used a product they could not accurately describe ^[23].

In headcount, 6% of the sample is about 855 of the 14,250 people Visa surveyed ^[26]. Awareness ran at 66% ^[11], so at most about one in eleven of the aware understood the mechanics ^[24]. Respondents who think the tokens always rise outnumber those who understand them by nearly seven to one ^[25]. Stablecoins are designed to hold a steady value against an asset such as the US dollar, and their prices can still drift from that target ^[18].

On cross-border payments, respondents expected other people to adopt stablecoins slightly more readily than they would themselves. About 49% said stablecoins could become a common way to move money between countries within five years ^[5], three points more than said they would use one themselves ^[19].

First, understanding may not be needed. The aware non-users' first choices of provider were government or central bank-linked bodies, at 27%, and banks, at 26% ^[7]. A bank that puts a token inside an app its customers already use does not have to teach them how reserves work. Second, intent could convert faster in Vietnam and India, the two highest-intent markets ^[9]. Third, if much of the past-year use was trading ^[16], the payment gap is wider than 30 points.

On the evidence, the plain reading holds. As crypto.news noted, the answers are self-reported statements of intent and not a guarantee of adoption ^[17]. I think the 46% measures curiosity ^[1]. The view is wrong if a repeat of Visa's survey finds past-year use climbing toward the intent figure.

The survey's author is also a vendor. Visa sells infrastructure and payment services linked to stablecoins, crypto.news noted ^[15]. In July it launched the Visa Stablecoin Platform, an enterprise service that lets banks, fintech companies and crypto businesses mint, hold, transfer and redeem the tokens ^[12]. It started with Open USD and is in beta with selected clients ^[13]. The consumers in the survey are those clients' customers. The issuer carries the adoption risk, and Visa can sell it the platform whether or not the 46% arrive on schedule. Nischint Sanghavi, Visa's head of digital currencies for Asia Pacific, said consumers were starting to consider stablecoins for "online purchases, travel and cross-border transfers" ^[10]. He also said Visa wants them to feel like "a natural part of the payments they already trust" ^[8].