Drivers pay 40 cents more a gallon in the month prices usually fall
The national average hit $4.48 on Friday, $1.27 above last September, and the drivers Fortune interviewed describe trading groceries for fuel even as two of them say they will still vote Republican.
The Investor · Invest desk
What happened
- Quinten Martinez, a 28-year-old Amazon delivery driver in South Texas, described weighing whether his money goes to groceries for the week or into the tank he needs to get to work.
- Dan Lloyd, a Trump voter paying $4.39 a gallon in Mesa, Arizona, said the president hurt himself by entering the war, and still expects to vote Republican in the midterms.
- Early voting is under way seven weeks before the November midterms, and the party holding the White House has historically suffered major losses in them.
Why it matters
- Who's exposed exposure Service operators running diesel equipment are buying fuel at $6.79 a gallon, 51.6% over the gasoline average, so the increase reaches business cost lines and not only commuting budgets.
- Who has to decide decision Republican candidates with seven weeks of campaigning left have to decide whether to echo the president's account of what the price buys or run their own case on affordability.
- What it limits constraint The case for a consumer-discretionary hit rests on voter interviews, and the national polling in the report is described without figures, so nobody can size the demand effect from this evidence.
Next story · Invest · Oct 1
Prediction-market traders cut US diesel export ban odds to 9.5% as the White House weighs oneConfirmed2 publishers
Last September the national average was $3.21 a gallon, so Friday's $4.48 is 39.6% dearer than a year ago [21][19]. The pace is the more interesting number this close to an election. Forty cents a month is about 9.3 cents a week, and seven more weeks at that rate would put the average near $5.13; at the 17 cents AAA logged last week, $5.67 [21][22][23]. Both are extrapolations of a reported pace, not forecasts.
Asked about the president's position on the cost, Quinten Martinez said, "I don't feel like it's a good trade-off." He added, "I don't feel like this is good for anyone." [10]
Trump, campaigning in North Carolina on Wednesday, said of the war, "You have a little higher. It's a very inexpensive price to pay for what we've done" [1], and went on, "It's a little more. Frankly, even if it was a lot more" [2]. Chris Wilson, a veteran Republican strategist quoted in the same report, said, "Gas prices matter because they're one of the few economic indicators voters experience and see in real time" [8].
The vote does not follow the price in a straight line, at least not in these interviews. Fortune reports that Democrats and independents were especially motivated to punish Republicans at the ballot box, while some of Trump's working-class supporters said they would back Republicans this fall even if they were unhappy with his leadership on the economy [7]. Dan Lloyd, a 63-year-old carpenter who voted for Trump, paid $4.39 in Mesa, Arizona, nine cents under the national average [3][18], and said of the president, "He hurt himself stepping into this" [4]. He still expects to vote Republican. "I think the Democratic Party has lost its way," Lloyd said [5].
Kristin Jimenez, 52, who runs a small business in Edinburg, Texas, filled a Mercedes and said gas prices are not part of her calculation [11]. "We don't mind paying $8 for a cup of coffee at Starbucks, but we have a problem paying four bucks at the pump?" she said [12].
In my view the fuel line in a household or a small operator's budget is what this material lets an investor price, and the four drivers named in the account will not size a swing in consumer spending [20]. The counter case is seasonal, and it comes from the report itself: prices are moving sharply in the wrong direction at a time of year when drivers typically get some relief [15]. If that relief arrives on schedule, the 40-cent month unwinds before early voting ends.
What to watch
- Whether AAA's weekly average keeps adding 17 cents or turns down into the usual autumn decline before early voting closes.
- Category retail sales for the months covering the 40-cent move, the test of whether grocery baskets actually shrank.
- Publication of figures from the national polling the report cites, including any breakout on gas prices.
Information, not investment advice. This story is general information about companies and markets, drawn from cited reporting. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security; check the cited sources before acting.
Clarity's read
What the record supports and how the coverage leans. The claims behind it follow.
Reality
- Evidence62
- Adoption60
- Hype gap+22
- Incentives65
- Confidence58
Claim ledger
Ranked by verification strength, evidence, and original report placement.
- [1]
Campaigning in North Carolina on Wednesday, Trump said of the war: "You have a little higher. It's a very inexpensive price to pay for what we've done."
- [2]
Trump also said: "Remember that. It's a little more. Frankly, even if it was a lot more."
- [3]
Dan Lloyd, a 63-year-old carpenter who voted for Trump, paid $4.39 a gallon to fill up his pickup truck in Mesa, Arizona.
- [4]
"He hurt himself stepping into this," Lloyd said of Trump.
- [5]
Lloyd still expects to vote Republican in the midterms: "I think the Democratic Party has lost its way."
- [6]
Garth Johnson, 35, runs a deep-cleaning business in central Michigan with several gas-powered vehicles and one machine fueled by diesel, which was $6.79 a gallon as he filled up his SUV.
- [7]
Democrats and independents were especially motivated to punish Republicans at the ballot box for their economic hardship, while some of Trump's working-class supporters pledged to support Republicans this fall, even if they weren't happy with the president's leadership on the economy.
- [8]
"Gas prices matter because they're one of the few economic indicators voters experience and see in real time," said veteran Republican strategist Chris Wilson.
- [9]
Quinten Martinez, a 28-year-old Amazon delivery driver pumping gas in South Texas, asked: "Is it going to be groceries this week? Is it gonna be getting gas in our tank to go to work?"
- [10]
"I don't feel like it's a good trade-off," Martinez said. "I don't feel like this is good for anyone."
- [11]
Kristin Jimenez, 52, a mother who runs a small business in Edinburg, Texas, shrugged off the rising price of gas after filling up her Mercedes, said gas prices aren't part of her calculation, and plans to vote for a Republican as the "lesser of two evils".
- [12]
"We don't mind paying $8 for a cup of coffee at Starbucks, but we have a problem paying four bucks at the pump?" Jimenez said.
- [13]
Early voting is getting under way in the November midterm elections, seven weeks before Election Day.
- [14]
Historically, the party holding the White House has suffered major losses in midterms.
- [15]
Gas prices are moving sharply in the wrong direction at a time of year when drivers typically get some relief.
- [16]
The report bases its account on interviews with voters in several states along with a fresh round of national polling, and does not report figures from that polling.
- [17]
Diesel at $6.79 is $2.31 a gallon above the $4.48 gasoline average, or 51.6% more.
- [18]
The $4.39 Lloyd paid in Mesa is nine cents below the national average.
- [19]
A year ago the national average was $3.21 a gallon, making the current $4.48 a 39.6% increase.
- [20]
The report names four drivers: Martinez, Lloyd, Jimenez and Johnson.
- [21]
The national average for a gallon of gas reached $4.48 on Friday, according to AAA, up roughly 17 cents over the last week, 40 cents in a month and $1.27 from a year ago.
- [22]
Forty cents a month is about 9.3 cents a week; seven more weeks at that pace adds 65 cents, taking the average to about $5.13.
- [23]
Seven weeks at last week's 17-cent pace adds $1.19, taking the average to $5.67.
Sources
2 independent publishers whose own reporting we read for this story.
- cryptobriefing.comTrump calls rising gas prices “inexpensive” amid Iran conflict, sparking voter ire
1 article · September 20, 2026
- fortune.comAs high fuel costs force people to choose between filling up or buying groceries, Trump says ‘it’s a very inexpensive price to pay’ for the Iran war
1 article · September 20, 2026