Some ASML customers ask to order for 2029 and 2030 as 2027 and 2028 supply falls short

In July ASML said it would raise capacity by 30% in 2027 and by a further 30% in 2028 ^[3]. If the two steps stack, that is 1.3 x 1.3 = 1.69, or about 69% more capacity than the 2026 base by 2028 ^[20]. CEO Christophe Fouquet now says supply planned for those two years will not fully meet demand ^[4], and CNBC reported that the company is "investigating ways" to go past the 30% for 2028 ^[5].

The company's own wording separates two kinds of demand. Fouquet said ASML was seeing "a lot of order intake for 2028. But also some strong interest to already place orders for 2029 and sometimes even 2030." ^[2] The press release put it as "some customers are expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030." ^[1] Orders exist for 2028. For 2029 and 2030 the word is interest.

That visibility is also the seller's account of its buyers' forecasts. Fouquet tied it to customers' "views on the size and duration of AI-related investments" ^[7]. ASML did not disclose how many customers are asking, for how many tools, or which tools the 2029 and 2030 interest covers. It is the only company that makes EUV machines ^[9], and Samsung and TSMC committed to its High NA EUV tool during the quarter ^[10], so an EUV bottleneck is a fair inference. The shortfall Fouquet described, though, covers ASML's supply generally.

Whether this is longer visibility than investors assumed, the evidence cannot settle. CNBC wrote that the comments will likely comfort investors who have been looking to assess the longer-term demand outlook ^[18], and the shares are already up 56% this year ^[19]. A stock that has risen that far has paid for some of this, and how much is not in these reports. We think the firmer signal is about supply: a buyer who cannot get tools in 2028 asks about 2029 whatever it believes about AI in 2030. The counter-case is that asking costs nothing until it becomes an order, and a customer short of allocation has a reason to ask early. We would be wrong if ASML's reported bookings stop at 2028, or if it finds enough capacity beyond the 30% to close the 2028 gap itself.

The quarter was less tidy than the outlook. Net sales of 11.66 billion euros were 0.5% below the 11.72 billion expected, while net profit of 4.96 billion euros was 21% above the 4.1 billion expected ^[6][13][12]. The fourth-quarter range of 14.2 billion to 15.2 billion euros has a midpoint of 14.7 billion ^[14], which is 26% above third-quarter sales ^[15] and 3.6% above the 14.19 billion consensus ^[16]. The gross margin guide of about 57% is 1.6 points above the 55.4% analysts expected ^[17].